GEELONG and Brisbane do battle for a spot in the 2022 Toyota AFL Grand Final when they meet at the MCG on Friday night.
The Cats are favourites to reach the last Saturday in September, entering the preliminary final on a 14-match winning streak.
Both teams will go into the clash as selected, with Mark O'Connor named the Cats' medi-sub and Rhys Mathieson the Lions'.
Geelong v Brisbane at the MCG, 7.50pm AEST
NO LATE CHANGES
MEDICAL SUBS:
Geelong: Mark O’Connor
Brisbane: Rhys Mathieson
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CATS v LIONS Follow it LIVE
SUMMARY
For the second week in succession Brisbane will head to the MCG as a raging underdog – this time to play the competition's hottest team in Geelong for a spot in the Grand Final. The Cats have been head and shoulders the most dominant team since the middle of the season, winning 14 games straight, and are well rested after out-lasting Collingwood in a qualifying final less than two weeks ago. The Lions on the other hand have the intangible of rapidly rising confidence after disposing of Richmond and Melbourne in the past fortnight to break hoodoos and dispel questions around their premiership legitimacy. They are two of the three highest-scoring sides in the competition and also met in the 2020 preliminary final at the Gabba, which was won comfortably by the Cats. Can Brisbane continue its Cinderella story or will Geelong earn the chance to win a second flag under Chris Scott?
Where and when: the MCG, Friday September 16, 7.50pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round four: Geelong 11.14 (80) defeated Brisbane 11.4 (70) at GMHBA Stadium
This early-season blockbuster at the Cattery delivered a gripping contest that was won by the home team as weight of numbers eventually won out. Geelong rested skipper Joel Selwood and Tom Stewart was a late out with illness, but after a see-sawing first half managed to get on top of Brisbane around the contest and convert it into an inside 50 avalanche (60-42). Tom Hawkins kicked five goals and narrowly won his engrossing battle with Marcus Adams, while Isaac Smith vied for best on ground honours with 29 hard-running disposals. Despite a lack of opportunities as the match wore on, the Lions hung around until the final minutes and were always in the contest, with Lachie Neale (30 disposals) shaking a Mark O'Connor tag, and Joe Daniher and Dan McStay proving difficult to match up on forward of the ball.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Geelong
The Cats seemingly have few weaknesses across the field and have struck a great balance between defence and attack. One issue that gave Brisbane headaches when the teams met in round four was Rhys Stanley's willingness to sprint forward after a centre bounce, that not only created an extra tall target in the forward line but allowed Mark Blicavs to fold into the middle of the ground behind him and provide extra assistance with intercepting the Lions' forays. As has been the case for the second half of the season, look out for Jeremy Cameron to roam up the ground to lose either Harris Andrews or Jack Payne, and then beat them back towards goal with his exceptional agility and speed. The Lions will need to be hyper-vigilant of the star forward.
Brisbane
Since losing to the Cats in the 2020 preliminary final, the Lions have played them close, losing two tight contests in Geelong and winning comfortably at the Gabba in between. When Brisbane is willing to take risks with ball movement from the back half – as it did against Melbourne – it can cause problems for Geelong's defence. The three-pronged tall forward line of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay also has the capacity to be difficult match-ups for the Cats if they get enough clean opportunities. Negating Tom Stewart's influence – as the Lions did with Jake Lever last week – could go a long way towards causing an upset.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Geelong
The Cats have been just as potent defensively as they have been in attack since the middle of the season. Since their bye they have outscored opponents from turnover by 33 points a game, the best mark in the League, while also conceding just 64 points a game since round 15 – also the best mark in the competition. This is little surprise considering Geelong is the best team in the AFL for winning one-on-one defensive contests (35.6 per cent). Surprisingly, one man that has battled to impact against the Lions is Tom Stewart, whose average of 16.8 disposals a game is his lowest against any opponent.
Brisbane
The Lions are fresh off their best second half of the season, recording a whopping 214 for Pressure Factor (anything over 200 is considered top shelf). They are ranked second in the League for scores from forward-half stoppages and for the second successive year are the most efficient team in the AFL once going inside 50. One of the reasons for that is Charlie Cameron, who is fresh off three goals against Melbourne and has kicked multiple goals in six of his past seven games against the Cats.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…
Geelong
Look no further than skipper Joel Selwood. He walked into the Cats in late 2006 and won a premiership in his first season, and now 15 years later will play in his 39th finals match, joining Hawthorn legend Michael Tuck with the record for most games in that category. It will be Selwood's 12th preliminary final as he attempts to make a sixth Grand Final.
Brisbane
Two years ago Jack Payne was a late call-up to replace injured Darcy Gardiner in the preliminary final against the Cats at the Gabba. This time around he's a locked-in member of the 22 following Marcus Adams' season-ending concussion. Payne was excellent in the Lions' victory over Melbourne, but will have to go up a gear on Friday night as he mans either Tom Hawkins or Jeremy Cameron.
PREDICTION
Geelong by 11 points. Although they will rightfully start the warmest of favourites, the Cats should have their hands full coping with the slick, rejuvenated Lions. Their bigger bodies might just be enough to wear Brisbane down over four tight quarters, though.
