SYDNEY and Collingwood face off at the SCG, fighting for a spot to meet Geelong in next week's Toyota AFL Grand Final.
The Swans are bidding to reach a first premiership decider since 2016, while the Magpies' last Grand Final appearance was four years ago.
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Both teams will go in as selected, with Braeden Campbell named Sydney's medi-sub and Nathan Kreuger the Pies'.
Sydney v Collingwood at the SCG, 4.45pm AEST
NO LATE CHANGES
MEDICAL SUBS
Sydney: Braeden Campbell
Collingwood: Nathan Kreuger
SUMMARY
It’s the first preliminary final at the SCG since Tony Lockett’s match-winning point in 1996 as the red-hot Swans and Magpies face off in a twilight clash that will have 48,000 fans in attendance after the game was declared a sell-out on Monday. The form-lines could not be stronger for either side with Sydney winning its past eight games and looking almost certain to be unchanged for a fourth straight game. Collingwood has only lost two of its last 15 games, but one of those was against the Swans at the SCG only a month ago in round 22. After Trent Bianco impressed against Fremantle as Taylor Adams’ replacement with 16 disposals, it’s unlikely we’ll see any changes to the Magpies team. Sydney is gunning for its first Grand Final appearance since losing to the Bulldogs in 2016. Collingwood is aiming to get back to the last Saturday in September for the first time since 2018, where it lost in a heartstopper to the Eagles.
Where and when: SCG, Saturday September 17, 4.45pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 22: Sydney 11.11 (78) defeated Collingwood 7.8 (50) at the SCG
It was a hyped-up encounter that would have a huge bearing on a top-four place and the Swans’ three big match-winners in Franklin, Heeney and Papley shone up forward with seven goals between them to keep the home side ahead all afternoon. A heroic Dane Rampe bump on Brody Mihocek when a certain goal beckoned in the last quarter snuffed out any chance of another miraculous Magpie comeback. The Swans tackle count win of 72 to 53 was again a key reason behind the win in a game that Jordan De Goey was a late withdrawal from in a savage blow to the Pies.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Sydney
The Swans are absolutely flying off the back of eight wins in a row with a super settled side, but with the pre-finals bye and then the week off after winning the qualifying final, they’ll have only played one game in three weeks. That has led to preliminary finals teams being a little cold from the start before, but John Longmire did say they had a big training hit-out on Saturday to try and counter that effect. The key to the Swans’ game is their manic pressure and tackling, which they are ranked second for in the competition, so it’s unlikely to be an issue but they can’t afford to be slightly off the pace early.
Collingwood
Craig McRae admitted after the loss to Sydney in round 22 that his team struggled with forward entries on the unique dimensions of the SCG, and so the Magpies’ training ground has been remodelled to help with that going into this week. Their forward line movement will be closely monitored as a result, in particular that of Jamie Elliott who managed just six disposals at the SCG a month ago and has finished goalless in five of his last six matches on the road.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Sydney
Collingwood’s score of 7.8 (50) the last time they came to the SCG was its lowest of the season as the Sydney defence, led by Paddy McCartin with nine intercept possessions, shone in cutting off the supply into the Pies forward line at a ground they struggled to adjust to. McCartin has only been outmarked in four of 53 one-on-one contests this season and looms as a key man again. The Swans also rank second for scores from forward half interceptions, with the likes of Isaac Heeney and Will Hayward prepared to do plenty of hard defensive work running the other way. If the Sydney has that part of its game in order again it'll be tough for Collingwood to kick a winning score.
Collingwood
Just because it’s the obvious stat doesn’t mean it’s not worth pointing out. Since Round 16, the Magpies have won six of the seven matches in which they’ve trailed at three-quarter time. The loss to Sydney at the SCG may have been the only outlier there, but it’s still a phenomenal achievement that means their hopes of an upset cannot be discounted. They simply need to hang in there at the least against a Swans team that has won the last quarter 18 times this season – equal first in the comp. If the Pies can do that, their incredible belief will mean they’ll fancy their chances of victory.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…
Lance Franklin
It feels blasphemous to write the legend’s name under this category but after his seven-disposal, zero-goal game against Steven May in the first final there’ll be many an eye on Buddy to see how he bounces back. He’s likely to get another supreme opponent in Darcy Moore, which will make for a gripping contest, as the 35-year-old tries to respond and lead his team to victory. He needs just six more goals to draw level with Jason Dunstall on 78 for the second most goals kicked in VFL/AFL finals.
Jordan De Goey
He’s the Magpies’ difference maker and was sorely missed in their loss to the Swans a month back. With Taylor Adams out, the Pies need De Goey firing, just like he did with 24 touches and 10 score involvements against Fremantle. You’d expect Sydney tackling machine James Rowbottom to watch him closely at stages, but if the Collingwood superstar can break free and have an impact moving forward, it’ll give the Magpies a much better chance of a Grand Final appearance.
PREDICTION
Sydney by 14 points
Expect a much-improved performance from Collingwood to its last trip to the SCG, but it’s still hard to see it being enough for victory. The Swans have looked flawless for two months and their litany of match-winners should serve them well in front of a raucous home crowd. It’ll be tight but Sydney should triumph.
