SUMMARY

Greater Western Sydney could very well have spent this week preparing for a preliminary final, but they'll instead have to face a Brisbane side with all the firepower required to go deep into September.

The Giants have beaten the Lions twice this year and will have homeground advantage on their side, with Brisbane having not played GWS at the Sydney Showgrounds venue in more than four years.

It's hard to read too much into the Lions' belting of an undercooked Carlton side last week, while how the Giants recover – both physically and mentally – from their bruising loss to Sydney will be important.

Brisbane's accuracy in front of goal, or lack thereof, has been well documented and looms as another major factor in determining who will win through to face Geelong in a preliminary final.

Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane at Engie Stadium, 7.30pm AEST  

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Greater Western Sydney: Xavier O’Halloran
Brisbane: Conor McKenna

GIANTS v LIONS Follow it LIVE

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 7: Greater Western Sydney 17.11 (113) beat Brisbane 8.11 (59) at Manuka Oval

The Orange Tsunami returned in a massive way on Anzac Day as the Giants thrashed the hapless Lions by 54 points in Canberra, continuing Brisbane's horror start to the season. The Lions were exposed by a nine-goal burst that started just before half-time, with Tom Green (37 disposals and seven clearances) leading the way and first-gamer Darcy Jones lighting things up with two goals in an exhilarating debut.

Round 22: Brisbane 8.16 (64) lost to Greater Western Sydney 13.4 (82) at the Gabba

Three-and-a-half months later, it looked like the Giants would become just the latest victim in Brisbane's stunning mid-season resurgence, with the Lions storming to a 31-1 lead at quarter-time. Only inaccurate kicking kept the Giants in the game and it proved to be costly, with GWS kicking 13 of the last 17 goals of the game – including the last six in a row – to secure a famous comeback win. Again, Green led the way in midfield along with James Peatling and Finn Callaghan, while young forwards Jones (two goals) and Aaron Cadman (three) stood up in the front half alongside Jesse Hogan (three).

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants ramped up the heat against the Swans last week, with their pressure factor of 204 their second-best return of the season. They also won the tackle count 83-69 and against a Lions side that this year has lost the tackle count by 7.7 per game on average – the worst record in the competition – it could be a decisive factor. Leading the way at the coalface last week was Tom Green, who won a career-high 14 first possessions against the Swans.

Brisbane
The tale of Brisbane's goalkicking woes has already been well told, but it's impossible to ignore heading into this weekend's game. In their past four games, the Lions have recorded a shot at goal accuracy of 37.3 per cent, the worst in the competition. The first of those four games came against the Giants at the Gabba in round 22, when their shot on goal accuracy was just 28.6 per cent.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Greater Western Sydney
Having been blanketed by Dane Rampe last Saturday for the third time this season, the last player Toby Greene would want to square up against this week is Brandon Starcevich. The Giants skipper had just four disposals against Brisbane a month ago, the lowest return of his 238-game career, as the Lions defender shoved, blocked and forced Greene out of the game while picking up 13 disposals and five marks himself. Greene has kicked goals on Starcevich before, including a bag of four in 2022, and he'll need to get somewhere back to that form on Saturday night. Jesse Hogan will continue to do his thing up forward with support from the likes of Aaron Cadman, but the Giants are a different beast if Toby is at his best.

Brisbane
The Giants can destroy the opposition if their big-bodied midfielders get on top at the contest, as Sydney learned for the first three quarters last week, so the heat will be on Josh Dunkley to stop GWS's quick ball movement from in tight. Dunkley looms as the most likely match-up for Giants star Tom Green, who was extraordinary in getting 10 clearances and 32 disposals against the Swans having also racked up huge numbers in two games against the Lions this season. James Peatling, Finn Callaghan and Josh Kelly have also done damage against Brisbane's midfield this year. With Lachie Neale likely to again be closely monitored by Toby Bedford for most of the night, Dunkley and his other midfielders will need to step up.

PREDICTION

It's not often a team's stocks rise after a loss, but GWS's premiership credentials were enhanced by its impressive showing against Sydney last week. There's undoubtedly still work to be done, and the Lions have the firepower to expose them if they again fail to play the full four quarters on Saturday night. But unless Brisbane's woes in front of goal can be reversed this week, the Giants should be harder and tougher for longer. Giants by 19 points

BRISBANE has come from the clouds to snatch a spot in a preliminary final against Geelong as Joe Daniher booted two goals in the last four minutes in a stunning five-point triumph over Greater Western Sydney on Saturday night.

The Lions trailed by as much as 31 points early in the final term but then booted the last six goals of the game to overrun the Giants for a 15.15 (105) to 15.10 (100) victory at Engie Stadium.

GIANTS v LIONS Full match coverage and stats

Daniher gave Brisbane hope when goaling with a set shot from outside the boundary to reduce the margin to one point after Sam Taylor was penalised for insufficient intent to keep the ball in play in the dying stages.

The Lions key forward then made it two in as many minutes when he outmarked the GWS defender and nailed the set shot to give his side the lead for the first time since early in the opening term. 

The Giants locked the ball in their forward line and pushed hard to find what would have been a match-winner, but the hosts ran out of time as Brisbane’s defence held firm.

The Lions had earlier fought back from a 44-point deficit halfway through the third term after the Giants booted seven consecutive goals, kicking five of their own in nine minutes before the home side steadied.

When GWS skipper Toby Greene snapped the first goal of the final term to extend his side’s lead there was little warning of what was to come as Brisbane surged home.

Daniher finished with four goals to have the better of a critical battle with Taylor, while Lions small forwards Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann both booted two majors.

Dayne Zorko turned around a difficult night as he had his influence limited by Giants forward James Peatling (two goals) until bobbing up for two goals of his own in the second half. 

Hugh McCluggage (24 disposals), Will Ashcroft and Jarrod Berry (both 27) were important for Brisbane as they first tried to stay in the contest, while Lachie Neale (19) was among those to step up as the visitors mounted a comeback.

GWS paid the price for letting lightning strike twice, as for the second consecutive week the Giants saw their opponents overrun them in the last term to be bundled out of the finals in straight sets. 

Jesse Hogan threatened to tear the game apart and finished with a game-high five goals, while Greene showed signs of returning to form with three majors, but it was too little too late. 

Tom Green again showed that he has a game built for finals with 33 disposals and 10 clearances, while Josh Kelly and Callan Ward (both 21) ensured the Giants set the tone in the midfield until the Lions launched one of the unlikeliest of fight backs. 

Coniglio ruled out after nasty collision
GWS midfielder Stephen Coniglio has played through the second half of the season under duress due to a shoulder concern, so hardly needed to cop the brunt of a collision with Harris Andrews in full flight. The Lions co-captain had his eyes set on Giants young gun Aaron Cadman leading hard for a mark near the boundary as Andrews then attempted to spoil. Coniglio was in the wrong place at the wrong time as the key defender went through the Giants’ former skipper to send him crashing to the turf, taking several minutes to get to his feet before soon being ruled out with a cheekbone issue.

Toby dribbles a goal from the arc in return to form
Toby Greene turned in a horror show the last time these two sides met with a career-low four disposals as Brisbane defender Brandon Starcevich shut him out of the game. The GWS skipper more recently had limited impact in his side’s qualifying final defeat to Sydney, but showed from the early exchanges that he was set for a change of fortunes against the Lions. Greene found space in the centre square to set up Aaron Cadman for the Giants’ opener then added his own crafty goal before the first break. The 30-year-old later reminded the Lions that he needs little space, as he intercepted a handball then brushed off a tackle before dribbling a cheeky checkside through from 45m out.

Lions kick 'em when it counts
Brisbane had suffered from wayward kicking for much of the season and arguably paid the price for booting a combined 16.27 to GWS's 30.15 in a pair of defeats when these sides met earlier in the season. The Lions were again made to rue their at times woeful kicking for goal as they trailed by 25 points at the last change with 9.13 on the scoreboard. But when Jaspa Fletcher slotted a long bomb on the run to give Brisbane a hint of hope it was almost no surprise when the often-maligned Joe Daniher nailed a pair of tough set shots in the final four minutes to snatch the victory.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY            5.3       8.7       14.8      15.10 (100)
BRISBANE                                           3.5       4.10      9.13      15.15 (105)

GOALS
Greater Western Sydney: Hogan 5, Greene 3, Peatling 2, Cadman, Briggs, Green, Ash, O'Halloran
Brisbane: Daniher 4, Cameron 2, Lohmann 2, Zorko 2, Ah Chee, McInerney, Bailey, Hipwood, Fletcher

BEST 
Greater Western Sydney: Green, Hogan, Peatling, Kelly, Whitfield, Greene
Brisbane: McCluggage, Daniher, Berry, Ashcroft, Zorko, Dunkley

INJURIES 
Greater Western Sydney: Coniglio (cheekbone)
Brisbane: Nil

SUBSTITUTES
Greater Western Sydney: Xavier O’Halloran (replaced Stephen Coniglio in the second quarter)
Brisbane: Conor McKenna (replaced Logan Morris in the third quarter

Crowd: 18,357 at Engie Stadium