SUMMARY
Brisbane will be riding high after its had-to-see-it-to-believe-it semi-final victory over Greater Western Sydney, but the Lions will need to defy recent finals history if they are to repeat last week's heroics and advance to a second successive Grand Final.
Awaiting the Lions in the prelim is an in-form Geelong, which put on a clinic in week one with an 84-point thumping of Port Adelaide to advance to the penultimate week of finals.
The Cats and Lions have met twice in a prelim in the past five seasons, with Geelong having the better of both encounters. The Cats smashed the Lions by 71 points at the MCG in the 2022 Grand Final qualifier en route to their premiership triumph, and they were too good in 2020 when they saluted by 40 points at the Gabba.
In fact, the last time Brisbane defeated Geelong in a final was in the 2004 prelim, when current Cats coach Chris Scott was still playing for the Lions.
Where and when: MCG, Saturday September 21, 5.15pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 6: Geelong 9.9 (63) beat Brisbane 4.13 (37) at the Gabba
Geelong continued its unbeaten streak to start the season when it overpowered Brisbane by 26 points at a wet Gabba in round six. With rain pelting down for most of the game, neither team was able to gain any real ascendency until Geelong put the foot down just before the final change. Brad Close kicked a nice set shot to give the Cats a seven-point lead at three-quarter time, before they stormed home in the fourth quarter with three unanswered goals to secure the 26-point win. Both sides lost key players to concussion in the first half, with Tom Stewart subbed out after a sickening collision on the wing, while the Lions had to go on without a recognised ruckman from early in the second term after big man Oscar McInerney also copped a head knock.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Geelong
Geelong's ability to hit the scoreboard is going to be a real test for the Lions' backline, with the Cats averaging 94 points per game (ranked third in the League) this season. Once the ball enters their forward 50, they rarely let it out without scoring, ranking fourth for goals per inside 50 and sixth for time in forward half. Unfortunately for the Lions, the Cats' scoring power peaks at precisely this time of the year, with eight finals wins of 65 points or more since their drought-breaking 2007 premiership run – no other team has recorded more than two.
Brisbane
Boasting a midfield littered with stars, it's no surprise the Lions' ball-winning ability is better than anyone. They rank No.1 for contested possession differential and second in clearance differential, while their ability to move the ball from defence into their forward 50 and score is unmatched. The midfield is arguably the Cats' weak link, so maintaining the dominance here will be vital for the Lions. It was a different story the last time these sides met – the Cats won the territory game and the Lions booted a goal from just eight per cent of their forward 50 entries – but the soggy conditions that night mean the Lions can be forgiven for their off game.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...
Geelong
None other than the skipper, Patrick Dangerfield. This guy is built for finals footy, and the Cats will need their midfield veteran firing on all cylinders to ensure the Lions' star-studded engine room is kept at bay. With Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage all capable of tearing the game apart from the middle, Dangerfield will need to be at his brilliant best to quell any influence the Lions stars might have. After a mid-season hiatus due to injury, Dangerfield returned in round 15 and has peaked at just the right time. The 34-year-old was near-on unstoppable in the qualifying final, contributing to the Cats' forward dominance with 24 touches, eight inside 50s and 12 score involvements.
Brisbane
The heat is on Cam Rayner to step up after another sub-par finals performance. After setting the game alight in the qualifying final, Rayner turned in a horror showing (eight touches, two clearances) against the Giants last week, not to mention the two final-quarter free kicks that could have cost the Lions victory. It was the same story last year, with the former No.1 pick starring for the Lions in the qualifying final before having next to no impact in the prelim and the Grand Final. The Lions desperately need Rayner to return to the career-best form that he showed throughout the season if they are any chance of progressing through to the big dance.
PREDICTION
The Lions' best is good enough to beat anyone, but the Cats are purring at just the right time. Geelong certainly won't have it as easy as it did in the qualifying final, but the Cats' extra week of rest will be telling in what should be a fiercely contested match. The Lions have had a good ride after finishing the season in fifth spot, but unfortunately for them that ride ends on Saturday evening against a rampant Cats side. Geelong by nine points.
