SUMMARY

Brisbane will be riding high after its had-to-see-it-to-believe-it semi-final victory over Greater Western Sydney, but the Lions will need to defy recent finals history if they are to repeat last week's heroics and advance to a second successive Grand Final.

Awaiting the Lions in the prelim is an in-form Geelong, which put on a clinic in week one with an 84-point thumping of Port Adelaide to advance to the penultimate week of finals.

The Cats and Lions have met twice in a prelim in the past five seasons, with Geelong having the better of both encounters. The Cats smashed the Lions by 71 points at the MCG in the 2022 Grand Final qualifier en route to their premiership triumph, and they were too good in 2020 when they saluted by 40 points at the Gabba.

In fact, the last time Brisbane defeated Geelong in a final was in the 2004 prelim, when current Cats coach Chris Scott was still playing for the Lions.

Geelong v Brisbane at the MCG, 5.15pm AEST

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Geelong: Mitch Duncan
Brisbane: Conor McKenna

Where and when: MCG, Saturday September 21, 5.15pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 6: Geelong 9.9 (63) beat Brisbane 4.13 (37) at the Gabba

Geelong continued its unbeaten streak to start the season when it overpowered Brisbane by 26 points at a wet Gabba in round six. With rain pelting down for most of the game, neither team was able to gain any real ascendency until Geelong put the foot down just before the final change. Brad Close kicked a nice set shot to give the Cats a seven-point lead at three-quarter time, before they stormed home in the fourth quarter with three unanswered goals to secure the 26-point win. Both sides lost key players to concussion in the first half, with Tom Stewart subbed out after a sickening collision on the wing, while the Lions had to go on without a recognised ruckman from early in the second term after big man Oscar McInerney also copped a head knock.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Geelong
Geelong's ability to hit the scoreboard is going to be a real test for the Lions' backline, with the Cats averaging 94 points per game (ranked third in the League) this season. Once the ball enters their forward 50, they rarely let it out without scoring, ranking fourth for goals per inside 50 and sixth for time in forward half. Unfortunately for the Lions, the Cats' scoring power peaks at precisely this time of the year, with eight finals wins of 65 points or more since their drought-breaking 2007 premiership run – no other team has recorded more than two. 

Brisbane
Boasting a midfield littered with stars, it's no surprise the Lions' ball-winning ability is better than anyone. They rank No.1 for contested possession differential and second in clearance differential, while their ability to move the ball from defence into their forward 50 and score is unmatched. The midfield is arguably the Cats' weak link, so maintaining the dominance here will be vital for the Lions. It was a different story the last time these sides met – the Cats won the territory game and the Lions booted a goal from just eight per cent of their forward 50 entries – but the soggy conditions that night mean the Lions can be forgiven for their off game.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Geelong
None other than the skipper, Patrick Dangerfield. This guy is built for finals footy, and the Cats will need their midfield veteran firing on all cylinders to ensure the Lions' star-studded engine room is kept at bay. With Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage all capable of tearing the game apart from the middle, Dangerfield will need to be at his brilliant best to quell any influence the Lions stars might have. After a mid-season hiatus due to injury, Dangerfield returned in round 15 and has peaked at just the right time. The 34-year-old was near-on unstoppable in the qualifying final, contributing to the Cats' forward dominance with 24 touches, eight inside 50s and 12 score involvements.

Brisbane
The heat is on Cam Rayner to step up after another sub-par finals performance. After setting the game alight in the qualifying final, Rayner turned in a horror showing (eight touches, two clearances) against the Giants last week, not to mention the two final-quarter free kicks that could have cost the Lions victory. It was the same story last year, with the former No.1 pick starring for the Lions in the qualifying final before having next to no impact in the prelim and the Grand Final. The Lions desperately need Rayner to return to the career-best form that he showed throughout the season if they are any chance of progressing through to the big dance.

PREDICTION

The Lions' best is good enough to beat anyone, but the Cats are purring at just the right time. Geelong certainly won't have it as easy as it did in the qualifying final, but the Cats' extra week of rest will be telling in what should be a fiercely contested match. The Lions have had a good ride after finishing the season in fifth spot, but unfortunately for them that ride ends on Saturday evening against a rampant Cats side. Geelong by nine points.

BRISBANE has earned a chance at redemption, beating Geelong by 10 points in a frantic preliminary final on Saturday afternoon to feature in a second consecutive Grand Final.

A flurry of late goals, in which the Cats momentarily snatched back the lead, saw the Lions' resilience come to the fore, resulting in the 14.11 (95) to 12.13 (85) victory under the MCG lights.

CATS v LIONS Full match coverage and stats

Brisbane will be sweating on the fitness of ruck Oscar McInerney for next week's decider, however, after he was subbed out with a nasty dislocated shoulder.

Ollie Henry (four goals, 15 disposals) is a man made for big moments, standing up when Geelong needed him most. First, he was the one to get the margin back within a kick approaching time on in the final quarter, putting Brisbane on the back foot and snatching momentum back in the Cats' favour.

He followed it up with the goal to put Geelong in front, coolly slotting it from the pocket out of an end-to-end transition thanks to a powerful Tom Stewart tackle at half back.

But the Lions had the answer, off the boot of Callum Ah Chee, and then Cam Rayner to break the heart of the Geelong-heavy crowd.

A late flurry of goals was in stark contrast to the nervous opening quarter. It took 19 minutes to break through for the opening goal due to the high pressure and nervous kicking for both sides in what were admittedly greasy conditions to start the game.

Poor ball use wasn't only reserved for in front of the big sticks, either, with turnovers rife right across the ground.

McInerney's injury forced a restructure of the side's attacking line, with last week's hero Joe Daniher required to become the side's No.1 ruck for much of the game, to great effect.

The Lions' midfield stood up to win the clearance count 43-33 off the back of Lachie Neale (31 disposals, 12 clearances) and Hugh McCluggage's (27 disposals, six clearances, one goal) sheer work rate.

Kai Lohmann (16 disposals, one goal) proved to be a game breaker when pressing higher up the field, with a dynamic and unpredictable attack on the footy. His speed then allowed him to impact passages of play more than once, including hitting the scoreboard.

Brisbane upped the intensity in the third term, increasing its physicality and adding speed on the ball. Moving quickly in transition, the Lions were able to create some confusion among Geelong's defenders, and allowing the likes of Rayner (18 disposals, two goals) and Zac Bailey (19, two) to get into the game.

Speed on the ball was crucial for Brisbane, as Tom Stewart was comfortably set up in the hole behind play for the Cats, picking off any attempts at slow, stagnant movement from the Lions. While Callum Ah Chee seemed to have the role on the Geelong vice-captain, it was anything but a hard tag that has proven effective on the Cat at times this year.

Ah Chee found other ways to impact the game, however, expertly crumbing forward packs and finding space inside 50 to return three goals from 11 disposals.

Gryan Miers' (20 disposals, two goals) work inside 50 caused all sorts of problems for the Lions' defensive line. Always on the move and thinking creatively, he was involved in two huge goals through the second term that will headline highlight reels.

The first, a soccer-like cross from deep in the forward pocket for a running Ollie Henry, the second a high, floating kick from the opposing pocket that split the tall posts, helping Geelong to a three-goal advantage at the main break.

Miers was just one of the Cats' small forwards who created headaches for Brisbane, with their ability to flick the ball around by hand and generate pockets of space for one another important in the side's second-quarter surge.

But soon enough they were starved of opportunity and forced to work higher to get involved in the play.

Wounded soldier
Oscar McInerney's ruck role was always going to be an important one for Brisbane, given Geelong's midfield power, and early in the piece he was helping his mids to first use. Late in the first term, however, McInerney came down from an aerial contest near the benches in excruciating pain, his left shoulder clearly out of place. To that point, the Lions were leading clearances 11-5, and although McInerney soldiered on for another quarter, getting the shoulder strapped and continuing to compete, his impact around the ground was certainly dulled. Midway through the third term, he had to be helped from the field once more with the shoulder displaced again, ultimately causing Chris Fagan to activate his substitution and leaving Joe Daniher to fight it out in the ruck.

More heartbreak for Holmes
Young star Max Holmes has arguably been the Cats best player all year, determined to make up for missing the 2022 premiership with a hamstring injury suffered in that year's preliminary final, against the Lions no less. There are fears that the same might have happened for Holmes, as he spent most of the third quarter on the bench getting his left hamstring worked on. Much of that time was spent in deep discussion with club doctors before re-entering the field of play. Just minutes into the final quarter, however, Holmes took himself out of the game, walking from the field and straight to the back of the benches, triggering Geelong's substitute.

When it rains, it pours
It took until 19 minutes into the game to see the first goal amidst a physical slog. A high, floating kick across goal from Kai Lohmann resulted in a Charlie Cameron mark, albeit flirting with the boundary line close to the behind post. Cameron executed an ideal kick around the body to the chorus of Geelong boos for the opening goal of the match. But the Cats replied quickly by way of their own Cameron, Jeremy, almost immediately, before Zac Bailey dobbed his own long-range major. It might have taken 19 minutes for the first goal, but it only took three minutes for two more to follow.

GEELONG                    1.5    8.7    10.8   12.13 (85)
BRISBANE                   3.2    5.6    10.10   14.11 (95)

GOALS 
Geelong: O.Henry 4, Cameron 2, Miers 2, Mannagh, Dempsey, Dangerfield, Blicavs,
Brisbane: Ah Chee 3, Rayner 2, Cameron 2, Bailey 2, Morris 2, Hipwood, McCluggage, Lohmann

BEST 
Geelong: Holmes, Dangerfield, Stewart, Miers, O.Henry
Brisbane: Lohmann, Neale, McCluggage, Starcevich, Zorko, Bailey

INJURIES 
Geelong: Holmes (left hamstring), J.Henry (right ankle)
Brisbane: McInerney (left shoulder)

SUBSTITUTES 
Geelong: Mitch Duncan (replaced Max Holmes in the last quarter)
Brisbane: Conor McKenna (replaced Oscar McInerney in the third quarter)

Crowd: 93,066 at the MCG