TWO rounds to play, eight finals spots available, 13 teams left in the race. Not everyone's going to be happy. Welcome back to The Run Home.
There were some potentially season-shaping results in round 22, with Brisbane now in the box seat to finish in the top two after a narrow win over Adelaide was followed by Melbourne's tight loss to Carlton.
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The Crows, Geelong and Western Bulldogs remain in the hunt for finals despite losses at the weekend, while the Swans have finished the round in the eight and have their fate in their own hands.
Who's in the box seat, and who's facing an uphill battle to finish inside the eight? Check out your club's finish to the season below.
Gold Coast, Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast have not been considered.
1. Collingwood
68 points (17 wins, four losses), 126.7 per cent
The Magpies steadied the ship on Friday night after a disappointing fortnight. Top spot is all but sealed and they can make sure of it when they host Brisbane at Marvel Stadium. Collingwood then hosts Essendon in the opening game of round 24 in a game that could confirm the Bombers' finals spot. - Josh Gabelich
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The run home
R23: Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Essendon @ MCG
2. Brisbane
60 points (15 wins, six losses), 123.2 per cent
Saturday's tight win over Adelaide secured a top-four spot for the Lions and now a top-two finish is in their own hands. But for that to become a reality, Brisbane must take down Collingwood in a Friday night blockbuster at Marvel Stadium in what could be a September dress rehearsal. They'll have to do so without forward Jack Gunston (knee), while the Pies will be without captain Darcy Moore (hamstring) after another weekend of injury carnage. Two wins in the next fortnight and the Lions are guaranteed to host a qualifying final at their Gabba fortress. - Michael Whiting
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The run home
R23: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium
R24: St Kilda @ Gabba
3. Port Adelaide
60 points (15 wins, six losses), 111.0 per cent
The Power broke a four-match losing streak with a win on Sunday and, in doing so, locked in a top-four finish. With that monkey off their back they can now concentrate on trying to reclaim the top-two spot they held for most of the season. Port will be fancied to win both of its remaining games but neither can be taken for granted. If they get over Fremantle in Perth, the guarantee of hosting two home finals could still hang on downing Richmond in round 24, and the Tigers have no fear of Adelaide Oval. – Howard Kimber
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The run home
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R24: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval
4. Melbourne
56 points (14 wins, seven losses), 124 per cent
The Demons have lost control of their own destiny after the thrilling four-point defeat to Carlton on Saturday night, falling a win outside of the ladder’s top two spots. With Clayton Oliver's return, the engine room is back to its best and Melbourne should account for Hawthorn next round to lock in a double chance, but Sydney at the SCG in the final week will be a big challenge. It's possible the reward on offer for a win against the Swans will be Brisbane at the MCG, a much more palatable place to play than heading to the Gabba. – Howard Kimber
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The run home
R23: Hawthorn @ MCG
R24: Sydney @ SCG
5. Carlton
50 points (12 wins, eight losses, one draw), 116.8 per cent
The Blues are on fire after notching an eighth straight win with their victory over Melbourne on Saturday night and it's hard to see them dropping another before the finals. However, the chance to move any higher than their current place in fifth spot is extremely unlikely. If they lose focus and go down to the Suns next week, a finals spot could still be on the line against the Giants on the last day of the home and away season. – Howard Kimber
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The run home
R23: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
6. St Kilda
48 points (12 wins, nine losses), 107.0 per cent
St Kilda strengthened its grip on a top-eight spot with its 36-point win over Richmond, but it needs one more victory from the final two rounds to assure it of a dream return to September in Ross Lyon's first year back at the helm. But that will be easier said than done for the Saints, who face a tough fortnight to round out their season. They host reigning premier Geelong next week before a trip to face Brisbane at its Gabba fortress in the final round. - Alison O'Connor
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The run home
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba
7. Sydney
46 points (11 wins, nine losses, one draw), 112.1 per cent
Sydney has catapulted into finals calculations following five consecutive victories, including Saturday's win over Gold Coast, but it has two tough remaining assignments to complete the deal. The Swans must journey to Adelaide to face the Crows in round 23 before hosting 2021 premier Melbourne in the final round. Sydney hasn't lost to the Crows since 2019 and triumphed in its only trip to Adelaide Oval this year, beating Richmond by 44 points in Gather Round. Sydney and Melbourne haven't met at the SCG since 2019. Co-captain Dane Rampe looms as a handy addition next week, while Braeden Campbell will be available after suspension. - Ben Somerford
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The run home
R23: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R24: Melbourne @ SCG
8. Western Bulldogs
44 points (11 wins, 10 losses), 108.5 per cent
The Bulldogs' finals chances took a hit with a surprise loss to Hawthorn on Sunday. Fortunately for them, their next game is against struggling West Coast at Marvel Stadium, although they will tackle that one without gun midfielder Tom Liberatore (concussion). The Bulldogs then make the trip to Geelong in the final round. Winning one of their final two should be enough to make the finals, but things are now just a little tighter that they would like. – Dejan Kalinic
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The run home
R23: West Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
9. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, 10 losses), 99.1 per cent
The Bombers got the job done with a tough win over North Melbourne on Saturday, keeping their finals chances alive. But, given its percentage, Essendon will almost certainly need to win its remaining two games against Greater Western Sydney and Collingwood to sneak into the finals. After ending a three-game losing streak by scraping past West Coast and the Kangaroos, the Bombers will need an improvement in form to reach September. – Dejan Kalinic
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The run home
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R24: Collingwood @ MCG
10. Greater Western Sydney
44 points (11 wins, 10 losses), 98.6 per cent
The Giants' charge to finals has hit a serious speed bump, with Sunday's loss to Port Adelaide seeing them drop to 10th, a result that means they simply must win their last two games, probably by decent margins after their percentage also took a beating against the Power. They should start favourites at home against Essendon, but then head to Marvel to face unquestionably the in-form side of the competition, Carlton. It's not an envious task, but if GWS is to play in September it has to beat the best, and the Giants have shown on their day they can match it with anyone. - Howard Kimber
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The run home
R23: Essendon @ Giants Stadium
R24: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
11. Geelong
42 points (10 wins, 10 losses, one draw), 117.5 per cent
Geelong will need to win both of its final games of the season to continue its premiership defence and, having spent 14 rounds out of the eight this year, are on track to fall short. They face St Kilda at Marvel Stadium next weekend and then the Western Bulldogs at home on the final Saturday night of the season. Both sides remain in the hunt and, like the Cats, can't afford to drop another game. - Josh Gabelich
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The run home
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Western Bulldogs @ GMHBA Stadium
12. Adelaide
40 points (10 wins, 11 losses), 115.8 per cent
The heartbreaking loss to Brisbane – the fourth by a goal or less to a top-four team – now has the Crows needing other results to go their way if they are to play finals. Needless to say they need to win their final two matches, which they're a chance to do, and with such a strong percentage, 12 wins might squeak them in. The odds are against it happening, but one thing Adelaide has shown this year is it won't ever give up. - Michael Whiting
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The run home
R23: Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R24: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
13. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, 11 losses, one draw), 93.1 per cent
The 36-point loss to the Saints has all but ruled the Tigers' out of finals. They are now two games behind eighth place, but their poor percentage (93.1) will hold them back even if they were to win their final two games. They are now just playing for pride, with North Melbourne (home) and Port Adelaide (away) to come. - Alison O'Connor
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The run home
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
