JUST four weeks ago, Sydney's season looked over, sitting in 15th place and two wins plus significant percentage outside the top eight.
Only the young Hawks and historically poor North Melbourne and West Coast sat lower with seven rounds remaining.
But John Longmire and his Swans never give up.
In the space of a month, last year's runners-up are very much back in the finals picture following wins against the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Essendon and crosstown rival Greater Western Sydney last Saturday night.
Now in 10th, Sydney is perched just half a game outside the eight and suddenly has destiny in its own hands. Three wins against Gold Coast, Adelaide and Melbourne, and it will be playing in September.
But how have the Swans turned things around?
Assistant coach Dean Cox told AFL.com.au the starting point came with player availability.
Like many teams in a 23-game season, the Swans have been hit hard by injuries, and most of them came in a clump during the first half of the season.
All-Australian Callum Mills missed four matches with a calf injury, fellow co-captain Dane Rampe seven with a neck problem, full-back Tom McCartin eight with concussion and young forwards Logan McDonald (ankle) and Joel Amartey (hamstring) four and seven respectively.
Not to mention Paddy McCartin, who has not played since round four with ongoing concussion issues, while Sam Reid has missed the entire season.
Apart from the older McCartin and Rampe (calf), who missed the win over the Giants, all are back and making big contributions again.
"When you look at the start of season at the limited availability of some of our key players … and their standing within the group and the positions they play, they were big losses," Cox said.
"When they returned, we've built some form off the chemistry they've had playing with each other for a period of time.
"To have your best players playing is really important."
The 11-point win over GWS capped a month where the Swans have become incredibly efficient in attack and back to their stingy best in defence.
Against the Giants they scored a remarkable 10 goals in the first half alone from attacking chains that began in the defensive half.
Most points from defensive half chains – first half of a match |
|||
Team |
Match |
Oppo |
Total |
Hawthorn |
R20, 2006 |
Essendon |
71 |
Richmond |
R19, 2006 |
Brisbane |
66 |
Carlton |
R16, 2008 |
Sydney |
60 |
Sydney |
R21, 2023 |
GWS |
60 |
St. Kilda |
R22, 2012 |
GWS |
58 |
It's the most by any team in the past 15 years.
The numbers, as provided by Champion Data, over Sydney's four-match winning streak are quite remarkable.
It has lost the inside 50 count in every game, by an average of 12, but has bumped up its scoring considerably.
The Swans, for so long known for their ability to win clearances and contested ball, were soundly beaten in those departments by the Bulldogs, Bombers and Giants, yet won.
So, how?
Over the past four weeks they are ranked first in the AFL for goals per inside 50 entry (up from 12th in rounds 1-17) and third for the percentage of kicks inside 50 that get marked (up from 14th).
The result has seen Sydney's scoring average jump from 81 points a game to 95, good enough for fourth in the AFL over that period.
Improved Swans |
Rounds 1-17 |
Rounds 18-21 |
||
Avg |
Rank |
Avg |
Rank |
|
Points For |
81.4 |
9th |
95.0 |
4th |
Points from Turnover Diff |
+1.9 |
11th |
+13.0 |
6th |
Kick Inside 50 – Mark % |
18.3% |
14th |
24.1% |
3rd |
Score per Inside 50 % |
42.9% |
9th |
48.2% |
3rd |
Goal per Inside 50% |
21.7% |
12th |
28.9% |
1st |
Shot at Goal Accuracy |
46.1% |
13th |
55.9% |
3rd |
Score Agst per Inside 50 % |
42.7% |
9th |
35.1% |
1st |
D50 1v1 Contest – Loss Rate |
34.2% |
17th |
17.6% |
7th |
Chad Warner has lifted, Tom Papley has lifted – that also helps.
"There's still some constant work needed with our stoppage and contested possession, you can't solely rely on one thing," Cox said.
"Our ball movement has got us out of some tough positions, which is a great trait, but you can't do everything out of your back half.
"You need to play a front-half game, create turnovers and lock it in there.
"Our pressure has always been pretty good on the opposition. We've given ourselves a chance there.
"It's about putting those missing pieces together now."
AFL Player Ratings |
||||
|
R1-17 |
R18-21 |
Diff |
|
Tom McCartin |
8.0 |
15.1 |
+7.1 |
|
Tom Papley |
10.2 |
15.2 |
+5.0 |
|
Chad Warner |
14.3 |
16.3 |
+2.0 |
|
Hayden McLean |
8.1 |
10 |
+1.9 |
|
Harry Cunningham |
5.9 |
7.7 |
+1.8 |
|
At the other end of the ground, with McCartin back, Aaron Francis playing well when required, Harry Cunningham locking down and Jake Lloyd, Nick Blakey and Braeden Campbell offering balance, they've been tough to score against.
In fact, they're ranked No.1 for scores against per inside 50 during the winning stretch, winning defensive one-on-ones 34.2 per cent of the time, which is seventh best in the AFL, up from 17th in the first 17 rounds.
Like it was four weeks ago, Cox said the Swans were keeping things simple ahead of a huge three weeks.
"We preach to our players all the time, and we have to do it too, it's process over outcome," he said.
"The closer you get to finals, you can't take your eyes off what's in front of you.
"You don't sit there with live ladders and worry about what ifs. We still have a lot of areas to improve.
"We're aware finals are three rounds away, but the predicting of other teams doesn't come into our thoughts.
"We have Gold Coast this week and have to get that done. Win or lose, we then move to Adelaide. Then to Melbourne. It's that simple."