The 2023 Smithy's VFL Finals Series is here and it’s the clear best eight teams that will be competing after Collingwood and Casey Demons thrashed their Wildcard Round opponents last week to secure a finals berth.

The action now steps up another notch as four clubs vie for spots in the preliminary finals and four others desperately try to stay alive.

What does history tell us might happen?

FOOTSCRAY BULLDOGS vs CASEY DEMONS

Second Elimination Final
Saturday September 2, 12:00pm, Box Hill City Oval

Broadcast: Seven Network, AFL.com.au and AFL Live Official App
Head-to-head: Footscray 7-5. At Box Hill City Oval: Never Met. Record at venue: Footscray 1-1. Casey Demons 13-18. Streak: Casey Demons 2

THIS SEASON

Round 1 at Casey Fields
CASEY DEMONS 1.7, 4.10, 10.11, 13.16 (94)
FOOTSCRAY BULLDOGS 1.1, 4.2, 7.5, 8.9 (57)

BEST
Casey Demons: Hibberd, van Rooyen, Jordon, Dunstan, Bell, Laurie
Footscray: Craig-Peters, Garner, Goater, Macpherson, Johannisen, Sullivan

GOALS
Casey Demons: Sestan 3, Jordon, Moniz-Wakefield, Schache 2, Dunstan, Grey, J. Smith, van Rooyen.
Footscray: Goater, Hannan 2, Clarke, Johannisen, Khamis, Macpherson.

PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD

July 23, 2022: Casey Demons 9.12 66 def Footscray 6.7 43 (Whitten Oval)
July 31, 2021: Footscray 16.10 106 def Casey Demons 10.9 69 (Casey Fields)
July 14, 2019: Footscray 12.8 80 def Casey Demons 10.13 73 (Marvel Stadium)
June 5, 2019: Footscray 11.10 76 def Casey Demons 8.11 59 (Casey Fields)
July 15, 2018: Casey Demons 13.10 88 def Footscray 11.7 73 (Casey Fields)

FINALS

2016 Grand Final: Footscray 13.19 97 def Casey Scorpions 10.6 66 (Marvel Stadium)
2016 Qualifying Final: Casey Scorpions 20.8 128 def Footscray 8.10 58 (Casey Fields)

SUMMARY

With all due respect to the Box Hill Hawks and Brisbane Lions, these are arguably the two most dangerous teams outside the top two, and one of them will bid farewell to 2023 on Saturday. The Bulldogs had a torrid time of it against most of the premiership contenders early, going 2-6 up to Round 10. However, have been imperious since with 10 consecutive wins to rise from 18th to sixth – all without a home ground as Whitten Oval undergoes redevelopment. The reigning premiers had the wobbles up to cost themselves a home elimination final, but the mention of that word (finals) can spark the very best teams and they were devastating against North Melbourne during last week's Wildcard Round. Footscray has recent happy memories of this ground, knocking off Box Hill here three weeks ago, while the Demons haven’t been here since early last year. Having the week off compared to a six-day break and the loss of key Demon Luke Dunstan to a devastating knee injury, the Bulldogs might just be able to turn around that convincing Round 1 defeat. Selection, however, will play a key role, given Melbourne is still alive and the Western Bulldogs are not. How will that affect things?

EARLY PREDICTION

Footscray by 5

WERRIBEE vs BOX HILL HAWKS

Second Qualifying Final
Saturday September 2, 2:05pm, Avalon Airport Oval

Broadcast: AFL.com.au and AFL Live Official App
Head-to-head: Werribee 52-41. At Avalon Airport Oval: Werribee 29-14. Streak: Box Hill Hawks 1

THIS SEASON

Haven't met

PAST FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD

July 16, 2022: Box Hill Hawks 12.15 87 def Werribee 11.14 80 (Box Hill City Oval)
May 8, 2021: Werribee 13.12 90 def Box Hill Hawks 8.5 53 (Box Hill City Oval)
Elimination Final, September 1, 2019: Werribee 12.9 81 def Box Hill Hawks 5.10 40 (Marvel Stadium)
August 10, 2019: Werribee 11.10 76 def Box Hill Hawks 7.9 51 (Avalon Airport Oval)
August 11, 2018: Werribee 15.5 95 def Box Hill Hawks 12.9 81 (Avalon Airport Oval)

FINALS

2019 Elimination Final: Werribee 12.9 81 def Box Hill Hawks 5.10 40 (ETU Stadium)
2013 Preliminary Final: Box Hill Hawks 22.12 144 def Werribee 14.8 92 (ETU Stadium)
2011 Elimination Final: Werribee 13.11 89 def Box Hill Hawks 9.9 63 (Avalon Airport Oval)
2004 Semi Final: Box Hill Hawks 13.11 89 def Werribee 11.15 81 (ETU Stadium)
2003 Semi Final: Box Hill Hawks 12.12 84 def Werribee 12.11 83 (ETU Stadium)
2001 Grand Final: Box Hill Hawks 13.13 91 def Werribee 7.12 54 (IKON Park)
1992 Elimination Final: Box Hill 23.16 154 def Werribee 14.4 88 (ETU Stadium)

SUMMARY

The Tigers have promised plenty since Covid after an impressive 2019 campaign but haven’t delivered. Until now. A near flawless season since starting 1-2 with losses by a solitary point to the Lions in Brisbane and a couple of goals to Geelong when they kicked a woeful 5.17. Have since gone on a 15-match winning streak in which they have only rarely been challenged to earn two home finals and a genuine crack at their first flag since 1993. Werribee hasn’t lost to the Hawks at home for a decade (although Box Hill hasn’t visited for five years), and the only defeat in recent times was last year when the Hawks came from 26 points down in time-on in one of the more remarkable performances of 2022. The visitors have been in the top four all season without any of the fanfare of a few other clubs and will pounce if the Tigers are off their game in any way, shape or form. The fact Werribee has only played one game in the past month isn’t ideal, but given they are also playing for club great Matt Hanson in his 100th VFL match, they deserve to start favourites to progress to the penultimate week of the season.

EARLY PREDICTION

Werribee by 13

WILLIAMSTOWN vs COLLINGWOOD

First Elimination Final
Saturday September 2, 3:00pm, DSV Stadium

Broadcast: Seven Network, AFL.com.au and AFL Live Official App
Head-to-head: Williamstown 18-11. At DSV Stadium: Williamstown 9-5. Streak: Williamstown 1

THIS SEASON

Round 7 at DSV Stadium
WILLIAMSTOWN 3.5, 6.9, 8.13, 9.14 (68)
COLLINGWOOD 0.2, 3.7, 4.7, 6.8 (44)

BEST
Williamstown: Downie, Hore, McDonald, Preston, Ebinger, Jolley
Collingwood: Bianco, Macrae, Murley, Ruscoe, Carmichael, Draper

GOALS
Williamstown: Ebinger, Henderson, Walker 2, Cox, Downie, Pickess
Collingwood: McInnes 2, Begg, Carmichael, Draper, Tomasiello

PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD

August 6, 2022: Collingwood 22.8 140 def Williamstown 9.8 68 (AIA Centre)
July 13, 2019: Williamstown 7.13 55 def Collingwood 6.11 47 (Victoria Park)
July 7, 2018: Williamstown 13.13 91 def Collingwood 9.7 61 (DSV Stadium)
July 15, 2017: Williamstown 20.10 130 def Collingwood 10.10 70 (Victoria Park)
Qualifying Final, September 3, 2016: Collingwood 16.6 102 def Williamstown 7.14 56 (IKON Park)

FINALS

2016 Qualifying Final: Collingwood 16.6 102 def Williamstown 7.14 56 (IKON Park)
2009 Semi Final: Collingwood 13.15 93 def Williamstown 7.12 54 (ETU Stadium)

SUMMARY

The Seagulls will have spent the past two weeks stewing on how a double chance got away after they had worked so hard to earn one with huge upset wins over Casey Demons and Brisbane Lions away from home. But get away it did against their bogey team in Sandringham and they now face the hard route in their first finals campaign since 2019. Collingwood was able to take advantage of a depleted Richmond and a 129-year unbeaten record at Swinburne Centre, but the Magpies face a similar reverse this time, having lost all six games they have played at DSV Stadium in the modern era and sitting on a 126-year drought for a win. That includes earlier this year when Williamstown won more comfortably than the scoreboard suggested. On top of being in sudden death, the Magpies will want to honour co-captain Lachie Tardrew – one of the league’s most underrated players – in his 100th VFL game and their form is extremely impressive with wins of 74, 50 and 75 points in their past three games. All finals are genuine danger games, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise to see the Magpies spring an upset here. An upset, however, is what it would be.

EARLY PREDICTION

Williamstown by 10

GOLD COAST SUNS vs BRISBANE LIONS

First Qualifying Final
Saturday September 2, 6:05pm, Heritage Bank Stadium

Broadcast: AFL.com.au and AFL Live Official App
Head-to-head: Brisbane Lions 21-13. At Heritage Bank Stadium: Brisbane Lions 9-5. Streak: Gold Coast 2  

THIS SEASON

Round 19 at Heritage Bank Stadium
GOLD COAST SUNS 3.3, 6.8, 11.9, 13.14 (92)
BRISBANE LIONS 7.2, 7.3, 7.5, 11.8 (74)

BEST
Gold Coast Suns: Tsitas, Long, Chol, Constable, Fiorini, Graham
Brisbane Lions: Robertson, Prior, Joyce, Sharp, Fullarton, Manly

GOALS
Gold Coast Suns: Day 3, Burgess, Chol 2, Berry, Blakely, Fiorini, McLaughlin, Sexton, Tsitas
Brisbane Lions: Manly 3, Fort, Fullarton 2, Coleman, McDowell-White, Prior, Robertson

PREVIOUS FIVE HEAD-TO-HEAD

July 24, 2022: Gold Coast Suns 13.13 91 def Brisbane Lions 13.11 89 (GABBA)
May 13, 2021: Brisbane Lions 19.7 121 def Gold Coast Suns 8.13 61 (Austworld Centre)
August 10, 2019: Brisbane Lions 13.13 91 def Gold Coast Suns 10.6 66 (GABBA)
July 20, 2019: Brisbane Lions 13.18 96 def Gold Coast Suns 2.5 17 (GABBA)
June 8, 2019: Brisbane Lions 10.9 69 def Gold Coast Suns 5.9 39 (Heritage Bank Stadium)

FINALS

Never met

SUMMARY

A QClash final, remarkably for the first time in the 13 years the Suns have been in existence – at either level. And what a cracker it should be. The Lions got off to a wonderful start to the year in winning their first nine games and it looked like the Queensland teams were that far the best two in the competition it wasn’t funny. Then big brother lost their roar somewhat, winning just one of their next four games, and they will come into this with a 4-4-1 record in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, the Suns have just rolled along, with their only two defeats being by two points to Werribee and one to Essendon as they won their first minor premiership. They have a 7-0 record at home, winning by an average of 71.3 points. The Lions are one of the teams to push them though, kicking the first seven goals in a stunning salvo a month ago before the Suns rose and piled on the next 11 in the most amazing game of the year. With no AFL this weekend, Saturday night is a game that simply can’t be missed.

EARLY PREDICTION

Gold Coast Suns by 13