James Harmes and Bayley Fritsch celebrate with fans after the 2021 Toyota AFL Grand Final between Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium on September 25, 2021. Picture: AFL Photos

WANT to win the flag? Well, winning the qualifying final is the best place to start.

As Collingwood gears up to face Melbourne on Thursday evening, and as Brisbane prepares to host Port Adelaide on Saturday night, history suggests we'll likely see the winners again on the last Saturday in September.

Since the AFL changed the finals format in 2000, the winners of the qualifying final have overwhelmingly been September's most dominant performers. A total of 17 of 23 premiers won their qualifying finals, while 35 of 46 Grand Finalists did likewise.

The Tigers pose for their team photograph after the 2020 Toyota AFL Grand Final between Richmond and Geelong at The Gabba on October 24, 2020. Picture: AFL Photos

The shorter route to Grand Finals has been incredibly beneficial for multiple reasons. The week off helps, with only five teams – Brisbane in 2003, Sydney in 2005, West Coast in 2006, Hawthorn in 2015 and Richmond in 2020 – losing qualifying finals, then winning the flag.

Only eight of 46 Grand Finalists have made it there after losing the qualifying final, with only three more teams – Sydney in 2016, Collingwood in 2018 and Geelong in 2020 – making Grand Finals, then losing, after also losing in the first week of September.

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Only one team – the Western Bulldogs in 2016 – ultimately won the premiership from outside the top-four, with only two more – the Giants in 2019 and the Dogs in 2021 – also making the Grand Final having not qualified for a top-four finish.

The Western Bulldogs line up ahead of the 2016 Toyota AFL Grand Final. Picture: AFL Photos

Making the top-four has also historically been indicator of remaining in September for longer, with only 10 teams since 2000 departing in straight-sets. However, a team has bowed out in straight-sets in four of the last five seasons now.

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THE PREMIERSHIP ROUTE

2000 Essendon: Won qualifying final
2001 Brisbane: Won qualifying final
2002 Brisbane: Won qualifying final
2003 Brisbane: Lost qualifying final
2004 Port Adelaide: Won qualifying final
2005 Sydney: Lost qualifying final
2006 West Coast: Lost qualifying final
2007 Geelong: Won qualifying final
2008 Hawthorn: Won qualifying final
2009 Geelong: Won qualifying final
2010 Collingwood: Won qualifying final
2011 Geelong: Won qualifying final
2012 Sydney: Won qualifying final
2013 Hawthorn: Won qualifying final
2014 Hawthorn: Won qualifying final
2015 Hawthorn: Lost qualifying final
2016 Western Bulldogs: Won from outside the top four
2017 Richmond: Won qualifying final
2018 West Coast: Won qualifying final
2019 Richmond: Won qualifying final
2020 Richmond: Lost qualifying final
2021 Melbourne: Won qualifying final
2022 Geelong: Won qualifying final