SUMMARY

Entering round 15 this year, just 11 short weeks ago, the Blues and Swans sat fifth-last and fourth-last on the ladder respectively with just five wins each for the season.

Since then, in a remarkable turnaround from both clubs, they've lost just three of 19 games combined to enter September as the two most in-form teams in the competition, albeit with both coming off losses in round 24.

Both teams are close to full strength as well, with Patrick Cripps and Tom Papley set to return after missing the final round of the season while Blake Acres and Justin McInerney are watches on the track this week.

Carlton v Sydney at the MCG, 7.50pm AEST

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Carlton: Jesse Motlop
Sydney: Robbie Fox

Momentum can be an irresistible force in finals and both of these clubs have it in spades at the business end of the season.

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 8, 7.50pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR? 

Round 11: Sydney 11.11 (77) defeated Carlton 6.15 (51) at the SCG

Probably the lowest point of what - at the time - had been a nightmare season for Carlton, the Blues fluffed their lines in front of goal at the SCG to suffer a sixth loss in seven games, sparking a fiery encounter between two off-field club heavyweights in the rooms post-game. In a game that never reached great heights, which was no great surprise given the respective form lines, Nick Blakey and Chad Warner proved decisive as the Blues wasted some golden chances up forward against an undersized Sydney defence, with Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay managing just one major from 10 shots on goal between them.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Carlton
The Blues should have a clear advantage at stoppage, particularly against a Swans side that has struggled in that area of the ground all season. The Blues are the League's best in winning the contested possession count and groundball gets per game, while they also lead the way in points from clearances. The Swans, on the other hand, rank second last for first possession and clearance differentials as well as hitouts and hitouts to advantage.

Sydney
Finals are won above the shoulders as much as below them and it's here where Sydney might have an advantage. The Swans boast 28 players with finals experience on their list compared to just eight for the Blues, with Sydney co-captain Luke Parker having played more finals games (22) than the entire Carlton side he'll face on Friday night. How the Blues handle the enormous weight of expectation of a first finals appearance in a decade will be pivotal in determining the outcome. On the flip side, the Swans have their own mental demons to overcome in their first September game since the nightmare of last year's Grand Final.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR… 

Carlton
Carlton's forward line will again be lead by the irrepressible Charlie Curnow, but Harry McKay needs to play a big role as well against a well organised and disciplined Sydney defence. The Giants did well to drop men back into space and limit Curnow's influence after quarter-time in their round 24 clash and the Swans will no doubt look to do the same. McKay needs to provide a regular and reliable target to keep the Swans guessing, and the Blues' midfielders need to be less Charlie focused when going forward.

Sydney
The Swans have had an air of unpredictability up forward since Lance Franklin retired, which should allow Tom Papley to thrive at the feet of their three tall options. The dynamic small forward has kicked a goal in all but one game this season and will be a constant threat inside 50, but it's at stoppage where he could have the biggest impact. The 27-year-old has had 16 clearances in his past three games and has an uncanny ability to produce a momentum-changing takeaway from a centre bounce just when his team needs it. Against a powerful Blues midfield, Papley's impact when pinch-hitting on the ball could be pivotal.

PREDICTION

Carlton by 17 points. Despite their slip-up against the Giants, where they had essentially nothing to play for, the Blues have shown over the past two months that their best football can beat anyone in the competition. If they can handle the occasion, the Blues should have too many weapons for a Swans side that has shown flashes of brilliance all season but has a worrying tendency to fade in and out of games, particularly in the fourth quarter. Unless the Swans can sustain their best for the entire match, the Blues should get it done.