A PRELIMINARY final spot is up for grabs as Collingwood takes on Melbourne in a blockbuster clash at the MCG.
Despite dropping three of their last four games, the Magpies finished top of the ladder for a reason and are fielding close to a full-strength side.
The Demons are in top form having won seven of their last eight matches of the home and away season, and are well-placed for another flag tilt.
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MAGPIES v DEMONS Follow it LIVE
Collingwood v Melbourne at the MCG, 7.20pm AEST
NO LATE CHANGES
SUBSTITUTES
Collingwood: Jack Ginnivan
Melbourne: Bailey Laurie
SUMMARY
While Collingwood claimed the minor premiership and remains the prime flag fancy, Melbourne's late-season form has been as good as anyone's and it is a legitimate premiership aspirant as well.
The Magpies' form in the last month was shaky, dropping three games between rounds 20-23, but a 70-point win over Essendon in the final round will give them confidence heading into finals.
In contrast, the Demons enter September well placed for another flag tilt. They won seven of their final eight games, but will be without explosive forward Jake Melksham (knee) who has played a huge part in breathing life into their season after a mid-year stumble.
Collingwood will regain skipper Darcy Moore (hamstring) and Nathan Murphy (back/glute) to boost its backline stocks, while it's yet to be seen whether Jeremy Howe will continue to pinch-hit up forward or stay down back to shore up the Pies' leaky defence.
Where and when: MCG, Thursday September 7, 7.20pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 13: Melbourne 8.18 (66) defeated Collingwood 9.8 (62) at the MCG
The Demons' four-point King's Birthday triumph in front of a packed MCG ended an eight-game winning streak for Collingwood and kick-started a red-hot second-half of the year for Melbourne. But in typical Magpies fashion, they had everyone on edge late in the game with two quick goals in the final 90 seconds to bring the margin to under a kick, but the Demons held on despite kicking a wayward 8.18 for the match.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Collingwood
Has Collingwood found a plug for its porous defence? The Magpies went from being the League's stingiest (conceding an average 68.5 points per game up to round 19) to ranking an alarming last over the final month. They gave up more than 100 points on three occasions between rounds 20-23, conceding an average of 105.8 points in that time. While those worries looked to have been abolished in the final round when the Magpies trounced Essendon and limited the Bombers to just three goals, it's yet to be seen just how much confidence they can take from a win over a side where the wheels had completely fallen off.
Melbourne
The Demons' attack was their Achilles heel for several weeks in the middle of the year, but Melbourne has finally found some cohesion up forward, driving a 7-1 finish to the season. The Demons feast off turnover, where they've scored an average 53.1 points a game. On the flip side, they hurt opposition even further by conceding the fewest points from turnover of any side with just 41.1 per game. Helping that is the fact that the Demons boast one of the best defences in the League, which ranks No.2 for points conceded (72.2).
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…
Collingwood
Skipper Darcy Moore returns from a hamstring injury this week and it's not a moment too soon for the Magpies' struggling backline. But time will tell whether his very limited preparation has any effect on his output in the pressure cooker of a finals match, but the Magpies will be banking on their leader to help turnaround their defensive woes. Moore had an intriguing battle with Fritsch in the King's Birthday clash this year, where the taller Magpie had the edge overhead but Fritsch proved difficult to beat on the lead and at ground level and finished with a return of 3.3. Expect the duo to go head-to-head for round two this Thursday.
Melbourne
Kozzy Pickett has produced flashes of brilliance in his two finals series to date, but we're yet to see him fully explode in September. In the absence of Melksham, the Demons really need their forward dynamo to bring his A-game this week. It's not just about kicking goals or racking up possessions either – Pickett's forward pressure and intensity will be equally as crucial to help the Demons lock the ball in their forward 50 and maximise scoring opportunities.
PREDICTION
Melbourne by seven points. History tells us that late-season form is everything in finals, and the Demons have that in spades. While the Magpies look to have put their patchy end to the year behind them, the Demons have all their stars firing at the right time and should get over the line in a close one.
