JAKE Melksham out. Bayley Fritsch under an injury cloud. Tom McDonald coming back through the VFL. Brodie Grundy battling to impact.
There's been so much conjecture around who will play in Melbourne's forward line in Thursday night's qualifying final against Collingwood, but statistics show that in many ways, it will make little difference.
Melbourne can be just as effective no matter which seven players are ahead of the ball.
Through injury, form battles and a combination of both, coach Simon Goodwin has struggled to put a consistent forward mix on the park as the Demons search for a second premiership in three seasons.
And Melksham's devastating ACL injury in the final round against Sydney put another roadblock down, just as it appeared some continuity was on the way.
Thirteen Melbourne players have spent at least 70 per cent of their game time this season in the forward half, which Champion Data says is more than any other club in the competition.
Alex Neal-Bullen is the only one to play all 23 games, while Kade Chandler (21), Kysaiah Pickett (21) and youngster Jacob van Rooyen (19) are the others to have played more than 15.
MELBOURNE'S FORWARDS | MATCHES | FORWARD % |
---|---|---|
Alex Neal-Bullen |
23 |
87% |
Kade Chandler |
21 |
99% |
Kysaiah Pickett |
21 |
89% |
Jacob van Rooyen |
19 |
90% |
Bayley Fritsch |
15 |
100% |
Jake Melksham |
13 |
100% |
Charlie Spargo |
13 |
98% |
Joel Smith |
12 |
70% |
Ben Brown |
7 |
100% |
Tom McDonald |
6 |
91% |
Bailey Laurie |
4 |
93% |
Taj Woewodin |
4 |
75% |
Josh Schache |
2 |
99% |
Despite the disruptions, Goodwin has fashioned plenty of avenues to goal.
Melbourne is the sixth-highest scoring team this season, less than a goal a game behind top dogs Adelaide, which is the exact same finishing position in that category as 2022 and just one rung lower than the premiership-winning outfit in 2021.
Interestingly, not one Demon is ranked in the top 25 goalkickers this season, with Fritsch and Pickett atop the list on 34.
Van Rooyen (28), Christian Petracca (27), Chandler (24) and Melksham (20) are the other contributors to have 20 or more in the evenly-spread attack.
Compare that to fellow finalists Carlton, who have Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow (78) streets ahead and just three other players over 20, while Greater Western Sydney are propped up by skipper Toby Greene's 60 goals and just three others topping 20.
Melksham has been a revelation late in the season, with heroics against Brisbane, Richmond and Hawthorn all instrumental in victories.
How much difference will his absence make?
Very little, the numbers say. In Melksham's 13 games, the Demons are fractionally – and we're talking just two per cent here – less efficient when the ball goes inside 50.
The same goes when Fritsch plays. Just like Melksham, Melbourne is two per cent less efficient, fairly negligible, when they take the ball inside 50.
Melbourne's real strength comes further afield.
Their contested possessions differential, clearance differential and inside 50 differential have gone through the roof in the final eight weeks, allowing them to camp in their forward half and provide the forwards with plenty of chances to score.
MELBOURNE'S IMPROVEMENT | R1-15 | RANK | R16-24 | RANK |
---|---|---|---|---|
Contested Possession Diff |
+8.1 |
#2 |
+12.9 |
#2 |
Clearance Diff |
-0.2 |
#9 |
+5.2 |
#4 |
Inside 50 Diff |
+7.1 |
#3 |
+10.0 |
#2 |
Time in Forward Half Diff |
+6:20 |
#3 |
+10:40 |
#1 |
D50 to I50 Transition % |
18.6% |
#14 |
21.8% |
#7 |
Whether there's Fritsch, McDonald, Grundy, none or all of the aforementioned, Melbourne has proven it can cobble together a mix of weapons good enough to kick winning scores.