SUMMARY
For the second straight season, Melbourne will need to use its second chance to progress to a preliminary final after this time falling to Collingwood in week one.
Desperate to avoid another straight sets exit, the Demons will meet a red-hot Carlton team that has won 10 of its past 11 games, including a round 22 thriller between these teams.
How the 2021 premiers shape their forward line will be crucial after failing to capitalise on a weight of inside 50s against the Magpies, with young forward Jacob van Rooyen to miss through suspension and Angus Brayshaw (concussion).
Melbourne v Carlton at the MCG, 7.50pm AEST
NO LATE CHANGES
SUBSTITUTES
Melbourne: Josh Schache
Carlton: Oliver Hollands
The Blues, meanwhile, have lost Harry McKay (concussion) and Jack Martin to suspension.
Where and when: MCG, Friday September 15, 7.50pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 12: Melbourne 8.13 (61) defeated Carlton 6.8 (44) at the MCG
Melbourne midfielder Christian Petracca (32 disposals and seven clearances) was the star in a scrappy Friday night clash that extended the Blues' losing streak at the time to five matches and ended a two-game losing run for the Demons. In a low-scoring clash, Melbourne dominated contested ball and got its forward half game going. It was wasteful in front of goal, however, with Bayley Fritsch the Demons' only multiple goalkicker as the team went into attack 20 more times than their opponent (59-39). The match was also significant at the time as a circuit breaker for misfiring Blues forward Harry McKay, who booted three goals.
Round 22: Carlton 9.6 (60) defeated Melbourne 8.8 (56) at the MCG
The match started during the Matildas' World Cup penalty shootout against France and ended with a controversial score review that fell Carlton's way as the Blues cemented themselves as the form team of the competition with a four-point win. In their eighth straight win, the Blues dominated forward entries early but didn't capitalise in a match that turned into an armwestle for three quarters as the contested midfielders locked horns. The Blues built an 18-point advantage in the fourth quarter that the Demons almost reeled in, but Christian Petracca's late shot on goal was ruled touched on the goal line. George Hewett (33 disposals and eight clearances) and Patrick Cripps (29 and five) were impactful for the Blues, while Jack Viney (31 and five) and Angus Brayshaw (31 and six) played important roles for the Demons.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Melbourne
It's all about the forward line for Melbourne and how the team can finish off a game that is otherwise in good order. The Demons' inside 50 advantage against Collingwood (+32) was the largest for a losing finalist since Geelong lost its 2016 preliminary final to Sydney with the same advantage. Fortunately for Melbourne, it is among the best defensive teams in the AFL and will remain in the match even if it is struggling to convert at a normal rate.
Carlton
The Blues won the contested ball by 10.1 a game during the regular season (No.1 in the AFL) and ramped that up against Sydney under finals pressure (+25). The Demons, however, have had their measure in that indicator in match-ups this year, winning the hard ball in both round 12 (+29) and round 22 (+8). If the Blues can assert their usual strength in that area, it will go a long way to them winning.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…
Melbourne
Leading goalkicker Bayley Fritsch misfired against Collingwood with 2.2 and the Demons need him at his sharpshooting best this week after recent foot issues. With uncertainty around him, Fritsch is the natural forward the Demons will rely on performing before looking for answers around him. There will be a tug of war over whether star midfielder Christian Petracca needs to go forward. A big game from Fritsch could help alleviate pressure to shift the gun onballer.
Carlton
Blues ruckman Marc Pittonet confronts the best big man in the game on Friday night after Max Gawn (27 disposals and 10 clearances) produced a monstrous effort at stoppages in week one of finals. Pittonet is part of the best stoppage unit in the game, as far as points from clearance differential, and has his own strengths the Dees will be wary of. But the powerful ruckman will need to be on guard for one of the special September performances that Gawn is capable of.
PREDICTION
Carlton by six points. It's hard to look past the Blues' extended run of form and the spirit they are playing with. It is also easier to picture them getting the stoppage edge that they lacked in rounds 12 and 22 than it is to see Melbourne fixing its forward line issues at this stage. The prize is a preliminary final appearance for the first time since 2000.
