LAST TIME: Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Essendon 12.9 (81), round 14, 2011 at the MCG
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Essendon's top-four hopes seem to be on the line in this meeting between the old rivals, with the Bombers having dropped two of their past three games by hefty margins (138 points in total). Hawthorn, meanwhile, has won its past seven games and 10 of its last 11 games. In contrast to the Bombers, who lost miserably against Geelong last week, the Hawks enter the game on top of the world after beating fellow premiership hopefuls Collingwood by 47 points.
THE FOUR POINTS
ESSENDON
1. How does Essendon bounce back? It sounds simple, but it's a matter of simply winning more of the ball. The Cats won 32 more contested possessions than the Bombers and also had 58 more uncontested possessions. It will start at the clearances and that, too, is an area of improvement for the Bombers after only winning 27 last week.
2. It could be an opportune time for the Bombers to blood first-round draftee Elliott Kavanagh. Essendon appeared to be without much zip against the Cats, and Kavanagh has been in very good form with Bendigo Gold in the VFL. Heath Hocking will return from suspension, but Kavanagh could give the Bombers some spark against the Hawks if given a chance to debut.
3. There were few positives to come out of last week's loss, but the form of Tom Bellchambers was one. As well as competing well in the ruck (he had 35 hit-outs), Bellchambers picked up 10 possessions and kicked three goals. He will be important against the Hawks, but only if he can get in sync with his midfielders. Many times last week Bellchambers won the tap but the Cats won the clearances.
4. James Hird is juggling a makeshift forward line given three of his best forwards are injured - Michael Hurley, David Zaharakis and Paddy Ryder. But last week it did appear to slightly unbalanced with small forwards Cory Dell'Olio, Alwyn Davey, Leroy Jetta and Angus Monfries all struggling to make a huge impact on the scoreboard. How Hird shapes it into something more imposing will be an interesting element of this week's meeting with the Hawks.
HAWTHORN
1. The Hawks need look only as far as last year for evidence they can beat Essendon without spearhead Lance Franklin. In round 14 of 2011, with Franklin missing due to suspension, Alastair Clarkson's team booted 23 goals and had eight multiple goalkickers as they belted the Bombers by 65 points. Franklin is expected to miss a third week with a hamstring injury.
2. Jack Gunston came to Hawthorn this season as a player of the future, but he is making a big impact right now. With just 24 career games to his name, the 20-year-old looks right at home on the big stage. Impressive in the air and at ground level, he has booted 15 goals in six games since breaking back into the senior line-up in round 11. He kicked three of those in the big win over Collingwood on Saturday, and gave off a couple more.
3. Hawthorn fans will arrive at Etihad Stadium ready for a celebration of Cyril, with the 23-year-old playing his 100th career match. Rioli has been in sparkling touch of late, mixing bursts in the midfield with his usual chaos-causing play up forward. He has kicked at least one goal in all but two of his 16 games this season, and laid seven or more tackles in five of his past six outings.
4. Clarkson was fired up last weekend. First he karate chopped a hole in the MCG coaches' box wall, then on Sunday backed up by getting himself in trouble for abusing an official at his son's junior match. All this while the Hawks are on a seven-game winning streak and marching towards the top four. Stand clear if the Bombers get on top on Friday night.
AFL.com.au prediction: Hawthorn by 23 points
