The key matchup
Travis Cloke v Jake Carlisle
We all saw what kind of influence Travis Cloke can have on a game against Richmond last week. Cloke was dominant against a powerless Alex Rance. Add to this the fact Cloke has a brilliant recent record against the Bombers, and you see how important this matchup will be.
In the last game he played against Essendon (round 23, 2012) Cloke had 20 disposals, 16 marks (seven contested and eight marks inside 50) and five goals.
Carlisle has been a revelation for Essendon this season and has done brilliant jobs on the likes of Taylor Walker, Mitch Clark and Matthew Pavlich. If he can give a similar performance on Cloke it will be invaluable for the Bombers, but the Collingwood big man looms as his toughest assignment yet.
Leigh says: "Last week Collingwood basically beat Richmond in the third quarter when Cloke took over. Alex Rance just wasn't tall enough.
"One of the things about Carlisle being 200cm is that he has the reach to compete with Cloke in a contest and is good at using his size to basically outreach his opponents, rather than getting into pushing and shoving.
"This match-up is clearly going to be critical because Cloke has just been fantastic. I don't see Carlisle completely shutting him down, but I think he has as good a chance as any of the big defenders who've played on Cloke because of the height and reach."
The key player
Scott Gumbleton
Gumbleton might not be the best player on the ground, but his output could have one of the most significant influences on the result of the match. His struggles with injury have been well documented, but when healthy he has shown flashes of great potential. He will be extremely important in this game with the Bombers' forward line so undermanned.
Last week Gumbleton was very impressive with 18 disposals, 12 marks (five contested and five inside 50) and four goals.
Leigh says: "Two weeks ago Essendon had either Ryder or Bellchambers down forward as a resting ruckman, along with Hurley and Crameri. This week they won't have Ryder or Hurley, and Crameri's fitness could be a concern.
We haven't seen a lot of Gumbleton due to his injury problems, but this week he becomes Essendon's main forward target and in many ways the key player to the game. He was really good last week against St Kilda, but he will have a tough matchup this week against either Ben Reid or Nathan Brown."
The Last Word: Collingwood to win
Leigh says: "I'm going to go with Collingwood. I see the two midfields as being quite similar, but I just like the chances of Collingwood's defence shutting down the Essendon forward line."
Round four tips
Essendon v COLLINGWOOD
St Kilda v SYDNEY SWANS
Fremantle v RICHMOND
Greater Western Sydney v GOLD COAST
CARLTON v Adelaide
Western Bulldogs v GEELONG
PORT ADELAIDE v West Coast
BRISBANE LIONS v Melbourne
HAWTHORN v North Melbourne
*Winner in capitals
