SUMMARY
Both teams head to the Gabba desperate for victory after first-up losses. Melbourne went down in heartbreaking fashion to Geelong with Max Gawn's late miss, while the Lions were right in their match with St Kilda before a fourth-quarter fade-out. The Demons are fancied to break through and make the top eight this season, and these are the types of matches they have to win. They had an avalanche of inside 50s against the Cats and weren't able to capitalise, but they would be confident of rectifying that issue against a young Lions defence. Despite losing, the Lions will take plenty from their performance against the Saints, particularly the dominance in clearances. Stefan Martin ruck battle with Gawn – featuring two big men with contrasting styles – promises to be a highlight, as will the on-field meeting between great mates Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis. Brisbane will improve its ball movement from last week, but Melbourne should squeak home here.
WHERE AND WHEN: The Gabba, Saturday, March 31, 6.25pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R22, 2017, Melbourne 16.8 (104) d Brisbane 14.7 (91) at the MCG
R9, 2016, Melbourne 19.17 (131) d Brisbane 9.14 (68) at the MCG
R16, 2015, Melbourne 8.12 (60) d Brisbane 4.12 (36) at the MCG
R19, 2014, Brisbane 11.8 (74) d Melbourne 6.15 (51) at Etihad Stadium
R17, 2013, Brisbane 13.16 (94) d Melbourne 11.9 (75) at TIO Stadium
THE SIX POINTS
1.Melbourne held off the Lions when they last met, leading by three points at half-time and 15 at the final change. Jesse Hogan had one of his best game of 2017, finishing with 15 disposals, nine marks and six goals.
2. The Lions struggled in most categories against St Kilda, losing the disposals 422-375, marks 135-87 and having 10 fewer inside 50s. They did however crush the Saints in the clearance count, winning 44-27.
3. Melbourne has now won the past three clashes between the clubs, ending Brisbane’s dominance of five consecutive wins in 2012-14. The Demons haven't won four in a row against the Lions since 1993-95.
4. No team kicked the ball less in round one than Melbourne's 185. They were one of just three teams to have less than 200 kicks and were equal 13th for disposals in the opening round.
5. Brisbane struggled at the Gabba in 2017, winning just three matches and losing six by more than 50 points. The Demons won three of their six interstate games last year.
6. The ruck duel should be fascinating. Max Gawn is the top-ranked ruckman in the Official AFL Player Ratings, while Stefan Martin is sixth in that category (and 54th overall), fresh from 19 disposals and 42 hit-outs against St Kilda.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Luke Hodge
Not only it is Hodge's first home game for his new club, but it's the first time he's played at the Gabba in 10 years. The last time Hodge played in Brisbane, Lance Franklin kicked eight goals and helped the Hawks to a win. Hodge has seen everything in the game, but singing the Lions song would be a nice way to greet his new fan base.
PREDICTION: Melbourne by 17 points
