Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted the help of David Natoli aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews.
Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2008, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.
The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.
The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.
DaVe86's previews will be published throughout the club's finals campaign.
Here we go.....again. I’ve only just regained a regular heart rhythm after the most exciting game of football I have ever seen in my life. I’ve never felt the way I did when the final siren sounded on Saturday. It was a combination of confusion, disappointment, relief and exhaustion...all wrapped up inside the feeling that I had just witnessed something pretty special.
Walking home from the Music Bowl, I was pretty flat. I wanted a result. As the dust settled, I had the chance to think over what I had just witnessed and I realised that neither team deserved to lose that game on the day. Neither side shirked a contest or slipped a tackle or had lazy players, the contest was played in fantastic spirit and fairness. The only player on the ground not to lay a tackle was Michael Gardiner who was injured early. It was 44 blokes giving 110%. Within hours of the game finishing, I was excited again and begun the count-down to the sequel of this year’s Grand Final. Despite the mayhem it has caused for people who had different plans this weekend, I am glad there is a replay.
Perhaps this is my bias showing as the Saints clearly had momentum and would’ve won if the game was decided in overtime. The Pies were clinging on for their lives and the game was played on St.Kilda’s terms in the second half.
Though it was a draw, both sides are going to look for positives in the search for an edge leading into the re-match.
The Saints were able to completely shut down Collingwood’s run, were able to peg back a sizeable deficit and probably had the five best players on the ground. They looked stronger around the stoppages, were more efficient going forward and laid 11 more tackles than a Collingwood side that pride themselves on out-performing their opponent in this statistic. They also have developed a sense of belief that they can beat the Magpies who were overwhelming favourites leading into the Grand Final.
Most importantly, St.Kilda was able to find a way through the Collingwood forward zone. They did this in two ways. The first was through Brendon Goddard who was able to pin-point 30 metres passes through the zone. Most sides have tried to run through it, however it was the precision kicking of Goddard from kick-ins that really caused the Pies the most grief. The other strategy was to go long down the line as opposed to handballing backwards. The Saints went man on man, ensuring every Collingwood player had an opponent. This meant that they had the luxury of booting it long in the knowledge that they would at least get a contest. Then they typically won these contests or forced a stoppage.
For Collingwood, I think Nick Maxwell summed it up best when he said Collingwood “dodged a bullet”. These are my sentiments exactly. Despite the fact that the Magpies skipped away to a good lead at half-time, I thought they played about a quarter and a half of really good football. The rest of the match was dominated by St.Kilda. For all this, it only took a quarter and a half to put enough points on the board to force a draw. I felt it was only a matter of time until the Saints hit the lead. To the Magpies credit, their defence held up well and it was not until there was six minutes left on the clock that the Saints hit the lead for the first time in the match. It was also a great sign of mental toughness that the Pies were able to rally and kick a goal against the tide.
Collingwood would feel that if they can string four quarters of their best footy together, that they can score quickly against the Saints. Importantly, they have also seen a few of Ross Lyon’s tricks. The Saints changed their structures in the second half and caught the Magpies by surprise. This week they will be prepared if Gilbert goes forward and will put more attention in Goddard. They will also be more mindful of the third man up in the ruck contests.
The Pies had a look about them during the match which suggested they could see what St.Kilda were trying to do, yet simply could not do anything to stop it. They get the opportunity now to review the match and develop a strategy to create more run. I think the Pies were outplayed on the day, and get a second chance to win the Cup.
Further, St.Kilda went into the match with prior Grand Final experience and dealt with the week in a low key manner compared to the Magpies. This week, that advantage is evaporated and the build up is a lot less frantic. With the Gary Ablett news coupled with Essendon and Geelong coaching dramas, the media frenzy surrounding the replay is a lot less intense.
A Look at Collingwood
Players that stood up:
Heath Shaw - In the last quarter, when the Pies were desperate to find something, Heath Shaw stepped up and led the charge. He was everywhere, picking up 24 disposals. His marking contest in the forward line in the dying minutes of the game led to the final goal of the match which at the time put Collingwood in the lead by one point.
Nick Maxwell - The Skipper for the Pies was inspirational. The Saints tried everything to limit his influence but he continued to have a major impact. The Saints looked most dangerous when they put Gilbert onto Maxwell, however whether Lyon goes with this match-up again will be interesting as it means sacrificing his own loose man in defence.
Dale Thomas - Dale started the game on fire and was one of the few consistent four quarter performers for the Magpies. He finished with 26 disposals to be the Magpies leading possession winner, and also laid eight fantastic tackles. It will be interesting to see whether St.Kilda elect to put a tight tag on him this week, or continue to focus on Swan, Pendlebury and Didak.
Alan Toovey - Tooves stood up for the Pies down back. He laid eight tackles and threw his body on the line when required.
Nathan Brown - When it was announced Prestigiacomo was out of the side, and Nathan Brown was brought in as an emergency, I immediately feared Riewoldt would be the difference in the game. Riewoldt was still very good, however Brown probably takes the points at the end of the day. He held the Saints skipper to two goals and 16 possessions. Ultimately, this is a win for Collingwood. He stood body to body with Riewoldt and out-marked him on two occasions. He faces the selection axe again with Presti pushing for a recall; however his performance on Saturday will likely see him hold his spot for the Replay.
Who needs to lift?
Luke Ball - Ball went into the match with an injury cloud, and looked limited throughout. He had only 13 disposals and four tackles, and spent the second least amount of time on the field than any other player. The question will be whether Ball will be better for the extra week, or whether playing through pain will leave him very sore. Either way, the Pies really missed his impact around the stoppages. He needs to have a bigger impact this week as winning the clearances is Collingwood’s best hope of beating the Saints this week.
Dane Swan - The Norm Smith Medal favourite was heavily tagged by Farren Ray and was largely inconsequential in the second half. There were patches during the game where he begun to have an impact and he won more clearances than anyone else on the ground, however he needs a four quarter performance this week.
Scott Pendlebury - 19 possessions with only five kicks is not the sort of return Collingwood were seeking from Pendlebury. He was well held, often by Clinton Jones. Typically Scott has a large say around the stoppages, however he was unable to get his hands on the ball in this area, only winning one clearance. With Luke Ball already struggling, Pendlebury needed to win first possession far more regularly. Unfortunately, he had a heavy fall in the last quarter and pulled up sore. Nevertheless, he needs to get himself right for one last effort.
A Look at St.Kilda
Players that stood up:
Brendon Goddard - He probably should’ve won the Norm Smith Medal. He was literally everywhere, often filling holes down back, picking up 31 possessions (the majority of which were contested) and kicking two goals. The Magpies floated a number of players through him but will need to find at least one steady match-up this week.
Lenny Hayes - Hayes was a clearance machine and stood up at all the right times in the match. The Norm-Smith medallist picked up 32 possessions and 12 tackles, along with a telling goal in the last quarter which started the comeback. You have to love the way Hayes goes about it, however Collingwood need to break from their typical game-plan and place a designated tagger on him this week.
Sam Fisher - Fisher always dominates Collingwood, and this was no exception. He had 25 disposals with eight marks and was the rock in defence. Every Collingwood coach has made mention of Fisher’s game this week, and no doubt they will be planning for him this time around. If Fisher is allowed to peel off this week and spoil contests, the Pies are going to continue to find it very hard to score.
Sean Dempster - He had the job on Didak and did it well. Didak skipped away to a strong start, however Dempster really shut him down in the second half. Dempster cops a lot of flack from outsiders but justified his spot yet again on the weekend.
James Gwilt - Gwilt looked very comfortable in the heat of the Grand Final, winning 22 possessions and owning his position down back, often having to play on Leigh Brown.
Who needs to lift?
Nick Dal Santo - Dal Santo has admitted during the week that he played sore but insists he will be better this week. He only won 18 possessions which is well down on his average. No doubt Riewoldt would be hoping he can receive a few more lace out passes from Dal Santo this weekend.
Jason Gram - Also went in with an injury cloud on the weekend and didn’t look right. He only managed 11 disposals for the game, which cost the Saints a lot of drive. He is a vital player to the Saints, and is a proven big game player. They will need him to find something within this week.
Brett Peake - Only had eight disposals and was barely sighted during the game. With Gram down on form, the Saints needed his pace to break the game open at times.
At the Selection Table
The Saints will probably have to make at least one forced change, with Michael Gardiner rated only a 25% chance to play by his coach. This may allow Ben McEvoy to finally chase his premiership dream. However, his spot is not guaranteed with King and Pattison also battling for the ruck duties.
I also believe Robert Eddy would be very lucky to retain his position after the Grand Final. He made far too many errors. With guys like Geary, Steven and Armitage waiting in the wings, there is plenty of depth to cover.
Nick Dal Santo should be right to play despite his ongoing hamstring complaint, whilst Jason Gram may be in some doubt with his ongoing injury concerns.
Collingwood’s biggest dilemma is whether to keep Leon Davis in the 22 or drop him. Davis was extremely quiet, only picking up six disposals. However he kicked a crunch goal in the last quarter and laid off a brilliant handball to Dale Thomas which should’ve been converted into a goal. In such a tight game, these 2 pieces of play alone could’ve won the game. However he was again very quiet.
I think the Pies will bring in Tyson Goldsack for an extra defensive option. This could be at the expense of Davis. However, Dayne Beams and Jarryd Blair were also quiet and face a nervous week at the selection table.
Alan Didak is also struggling with his shoulder. No doubt the crushing tackle laid on him by Zac Dawson limited his output throughout the second half. The Magpies medical room need to get him right as he is a crucial player. Others who face minor injury clouds include Wellingham, Ball and Pendlebury.
What will each side do differently?
The Saints won’t look to change too much. Their game-plan is going to again focus on shutting down Collingwood’s run and forcing the game into a scrappy tug-of-war. Sam Gilbert is likely to spend time up forward again on Nick Maxwell, whilst a fit ruckman will mean Kosi can spend more time up forward as well.
The Saints may elect to put a tight tag on Dale Thomas as he was clearly Collingwood’s most dangerous midfielder.
Collingwood on the other hand need to find an answer for Goddard and Hayes. Luke Ball seemed to be the other who spent most time on Goddard, however he was not strong enough in the air or in 50/50 contests to match the St.Kilda superstar. I think Goldsack should return to the side to take this match-up. Goldsack has the height over Goddard and is capable of playing a forward tag when Goddard floats into defence.
In terms of Lenny Hayes, I think Luke Ball should be the one to go head-to-head around the stoppages. Wellingham did the job on Hayes for the majority of the game, but was far too loose around the ball-ups. I think Wellingham should do the run-with job in the general field of play, but Ball should do the guarding around stoppages.
The other issue is Sam Fisher. I think Malthouse will elect to use Macaffer in a forward tag on him. This is easier said than done, as Fisher is likely to pay Macaffer very little respect and peel off him to cover Travis Cloke and Dawes. Therefore, the Magpies have to lower their eyes and utilise Macaffer to ensure Fisher is forced to play accountable.
Final Thoughts
A lot of the focus will be on Collingwood’s accuracy this week. The game may have been sealed in the second and thirs quarters if Collingwood made the most of their opportunities. Cloke missed two sitters, whilst both Thomas and Blair also panicked at crucial stages. Nevertheless, the Saints rushed a lot of behinds, which makes the scoreboard look far worse. Ultimately, Collingwood’s goal-kicking wasn’t too bad, but it does have to kick the crunch goals when they are there to be taken.
Travis Cloke in particular is the one copping the blame this week. However, credit has to go to him for kicking the final goal in the match against the tide. If his kicking woes continue into this weekend, the Pies may again blow their chance to take the game by the scruff of the neck.
It has pleased me this week to see Collingwood hold a closed training session. I had no problem last week with the Magpies embracing the week and giving their fans plenty to get excited about. However, it has to be strictly business this week with no time for celebrations or showing off.
The Saints are being heavily backed this week and rightly so. They looked the stronger and more experienced side. Further, all their star players were very good. Despite all this, the Magpies still managed a draw, and that’s why I think the Magpies benefit the most from the replay.
For all the analysis, the match may well come down to a battle of the fittest. How each side pulls up from an extremely bruising match will have a large bearing on the result. The mental fatigue of having to go through it all again will also weigh heavily on the players.
Collingwood need to get its running game going, and need to be less wasteful with its forward entries. They continually bombed it long to contests where St.Kilda had the numbers. They need to lower their eyes and pinpoint loose targets. The Saints need to ensure Collingwood does not get the jump on them and their star midfielders are held quiet again.
One thing is for sure, we are going to get a result this week. There will be extra-time if there is a draw again.
I’m going to tip with my heart again and back in the Magpies by 11 points.
For the final time (yet again), I sign off and wish both sides all the best for the Grand Final Replay. This time I will be at the game, and I simply cannot wait.
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
