WHEN Ross Lyon led St Kilda to September in his first season back at Moorabbin after more than a decade away from the club, the Saints felt closer to an elusive second premiership than they have been for a long time.
But this year hasn't gone to plan.
St Kilda has the longest current premiership drought, with 2024 marking 58 years since Allan Jeans led the club all the way, back when Darrel Baldock was captain, Ian Stewart won his second Brownlow and Kevin 'Cowboy' Neale led the goalkicking.
The Saints exceeded expectations last year, spending the entire home and away season in the top-eight despite a nightmare injury run, before falling to Greater Western Sydney in the elimination final.
They did that on the back of a rock-solid defence. Jack Sinclair went back-to-back in the Trevor Barker Award after collecting his second consecutive All-Australian blazer. Cal Wilkie established himself as one of the premier key defenders in the land, earning his first All-Australian selection after being included in the squad 12 months earlier. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera thrived off half-back to finish fifth in the best and fairest.
However, this year even the trusty backline has struggled to limit opposition scoring, although the problems are higher up the ground.
St Kilda has drifted from conceding the least amount of points in 2023 to be rated sixth after round 10. Most glaringly, the Saints have dropped from No.2 for opposition scores per inside 50 to No.12. It is a key reason why they are 3-7 and level with Hawthorn and West Coast.
Saints Struggles - Defence |
|||
|
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
Points Conceded |
6th |
1st |
7th |
Points Conceded from Turnover |
10th |
4th |
8th |
Oppo Score per Inside 50 % |
12th |
2nd |
7th |
Oppo Back Half to Score % |
14th |
3rd |
5th |
Pressure Differential |
14th |
7th |
10th |
Scoring has been a problem at RSEA Park again this year, as it has been for a long time. The Saints struggled to score under Brett Ratten in his last season in charge, but that hasn’t improved so far under a new regime.
They have averaged just 72 points this season. They have scored 55 (Fremantle) and 53 (Hawthorn) in the past fortnight and fewer than 70 points in six of 10 games to date. The 38-point win over North Melbourne in round eight is the only time they've hit triple figures. Tim Membrey (14 goals) leads the goalkicking ahead of Jack Higgins (13) and Mitch Owens (12). None of them are in the League’s top 30.
St Kilda is ranked 15th in the AFL for points for in 2024, like they were in last year and in 2022. They are 17th for points from clearances and 18th for points from the forward half, points from intercepts forward of centre and forward-half kick efficiency.
The problems haven’t been exiting D50. Sinclair, Wanganeen-Milera, Riley Bonner, Bradley Hill and Darcy Wilson have been good on exit this year. Most of them are deadly by foot. The problems have been forward of centre, where the Saints’ ball use has made it incredibly difficult to score.
This has been a problem for a long time. Higgins' three-game suspension hasn't helped in recent weeks, given he was No.1 for score involvements at the club last year. Jade Gresham was No.3 in that category in 2023 before moving from Moorabbin to Tullamarine during the trade period. Hill (No.40) is the only Saint in the top 50 for score involvements this year. Owens and Jack Steele are next best at equal No.62.
Saints Struggles - Offence |
|||
|
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
Points For |
15th |
15th |
15th |
Points from Turnover |
11th |
11th |
13th |
Points from Clearance |
17th |
17th |
14th |
Points from Forward Half |
18th |
14th |
10th |
Inside 50s |
13th |
12th |
15th |
Score per Inside 50 % |
15th |
18th |
11th |
Goal per Inside 50 % |
16th |
16th |
9th |
Lyon recently lamented the game style lacks "sizzle", but he doesn't quite have the players at his disposal to execute just yet.
Liam Henry should help once he builds some game time. Wilson is compiling a first season that shows he will be a hit at pick No.18. Wanganeen-Milera is a star in the making. Mattaes Phillipou has just been dropped for the second time in a fortnight but has high-end talent.
Last year, it was Owens, Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera, Marcus Windhager and Anthony Caminiti that helped lead an unexpected charge to the finals. Some of them have been well down on that form this year, including the club’s most important player – Max King – who has endured an injury-ravaged career to date.
Saints Ratings Drop Offs from 2023-2024 |
|
Player |
Ratings Change |
Dougal Howard |
-52% |
Mattaes Phillipou |
-47% |
Cooper Sharman |
-36% |
Max King |
-31% |
Mason Wood |
-30% |
Zak Jones |
-29% |
Anthony Caminiti |
-29% |
Ryan Byrnes |
-28% |
Lyon is 18 months into a four-year contract and has assembled the structure around him he believes in and is not going anywhere.
St Kilda fans have grown impatient again, and with good reason. Only 19,265 turned up last Saturday night. Of the 10 Victorian sides, only North Melbourne (25,291) and the Western Bulldogs (31,682) are averaging smaller home crowds in 2024.
The club needs to attract more A-Grade talent, while retaining its draft hand in the years to come.
List manager Stephen Silvagni and head of talent Graeme Allan are busy behind the scenes trying to recruit star players to improve the calibre of talent parking at Linton Street.
Every club has won a premiership since Carlton last saluted in 1995, aside from Fremantle, the two expansion clubs – Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney – and St Kilda. The wait continues for flag No.2.