SYDNEY has again surged three wins clear but the battle behind the frontrunners has become even tighter with only eight points separating Carlton in second and Hawthorn in 13th.

Essendon will be out to get its campaign back on track after falling out of the top four for the first time since round seven when it hosts Adelaide at Marvel Stadium on Friday night. 

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With so many clubs chasing a top-eight spot, there are at least five matches between finals contenders this week, headlined by the resurgent Brisbane hosting the ladder-leading Swans on Sunday afternoon.

Here is what to look out for – and which teams to tip – across round 19.

Essendon v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium
Friday, July 19, 7.40pm AEST

Last time: Essendon 10.18 (78) d Adelaide 11.9 (75), R6 2024

What it means

Essendon (10-6-1) has lost its grip on a top-four spot after four defeats in its past six matches, but will look to return to form at a venue where it has won five from five this season. While the Bombers are still to prove their credentials against the genuine flag fancies, they have an unblemished record against the five teams already out of finals contention, including the Crows.

Adelaide (6-10-1) has shown hints of finding form when playing at home in recent weeks, including with a comfortable victory over St Kilda, but has not won on the road since beating North Melbourne in Hobart in round seven. The Crows will be out to turn that record around as well as snap a seven-match losing streak against the Bombers that continued with a controversial finish earlier this year.

Game shapers

Sam Draper was the hero for Essendon, and the villain for Adelaide, when diving on the ball in the dying seconds of the game the last time these two sides met. Form and fitness issues have meant the Bombers' ruck has rarely made as much of an impact since then though there were promising signs as Draper gathered 20 disposals, seven clearances and 33 hitouts against the Demons last week.

Riley Thilthorpe has been one of the missing links for Adelaide this season as the forward-ruck has been sidelined with a knee injury. The former No.2 pick has put more size and was primed to make an immediate impact in his return as sub last week, gathering seven disposals and booting two goals in a quarter in the win over the Saints, with the promise of much more to come in the run home.

Early tip: Essendon by 21 points

Greater Western Sydney v Gold Coast, Engie Stadium
Saturday, July 20, 1.45pm AEST

Last time: Greater Western Sydney 18.9 (117) d Gold Coast 13.11 (89), R4 2024

What it means

Greater Western Sydney (10-7) has won back-to-back matches for the first time since opening its season with five victories on the trot, and a third in a row could now push it as high as fourth spot. The Giants have rediscovered their flowing ball movement to pile on 35 goals in the past two weeks, after averaging 10 in their previous eight matches, even while waiting for some top-liners to return.

Gold Coast (9-8) has stretched its extraordinary streak of winning all nine matches at home while losing every time it hits the road into another week, and will now look to break the record at a venue where it has not won in six attempts. But there is little to suggest that the Suns will turn around their away form this week, especially against a side that they have beaten once in their past 13 meetings.

Game shapers

Toby Greene booted five goals the last time these two sides met during Gather Round and was similarly influential last week in the Giants' first win over the Tigers at the MCG last week. The Giants skipper has put a lean patch and wayward kicking for goal behind him to boot 9.1 in the past three weeks as he builds into ominous form for the run home. 

Sam Collins relished the opportunity to take on the hulking Charlie Dixon, winning the duel in the air and on the ground, but faces an equally tough task this week. The defender has the equal-second most intercept marks this season, setting up a mouthwatering clash with Giants spearhead Jesse Hogan who has 16 more marks inside 50 than any other player and the second-most goals.

Early tip: Greater Western Sydney by 17 points

St Kilda v West Coast, Marvel Stadium
Saturday, July 20, 1.45pm AEST

Last time: St Kilda 12.10 (82) d West Coast 10.8 (68), R12 2024

What it means

St Kilda (6-11) booted five of the last six goals to overrun West Coast when these two sides met just seven weeks ago but might expect a more comfortable encounter this time on its home deck. The Saints have won two of their three matches as hosts since then, only falling two points short against the Power, but will want to lift their scoring rate after averaging only 65 points in those games. 

West Coast (3-14) farewelled its premiership-winning coach Adam Simpson and took the first steps into a new era with a gallant performance against the resurgent Brisbane. But the Eagles have still lost seven matches in a row, and have not won away from home this season, as they look to build on the new-coach bounce ahead of a Western Derby next week.

Game shapers

Mason Wood booted four goals, including three in the final term, the last time the Saints faced the Eagles and has shown since then that he could be a solution to his side's scoring woes. The hard-running Wood has hit the scoreboard in the Saints' past four matches, including with two goals in the defeat to the Crows last week, and can expect to spend more time forward with Max King sidelined.

Jake Waterman had never booted more than 18 goals in a season but is now a genuine chance to claim the Coleman Medal with 41 goals in 15 matches this year. The revitalised spearhead has booted at least one major in every Eagles match this year, and is now a key to their hopes of turning around their fortunes as he heads into his 100th game.

Early tip: St Kilda by 26 points

Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG
Saturday, July 20, 4.35pm AEST

Last time: Collingwood 11.11 (77) d Hawthorn 11.6 (72), R4 2024

What it means

Hawthorn (9-8) gave a glimpse into its future when pushing the reigning premier to within a kick the last time these two sides met. The Hawks have since gone on to win nine of 13 matches to well and truly climb into finals contention and could now leap over the Magpies to the brink of the top eight.

Collingwood (8-7-2) has lost three in a row for the first time since its sluggish start to the season to leave its premiership defence on the brink of collapse. The Magpies are now at risk of losing touch with the top eight even before facing flag fancies Carlton, Sydney and Brisbane on the run home.

Game shapers

Luke Breust has been such a mainstay of the Hawks' line-up through their premiership-winning period and more recent rebuilding phase that it is easy to forget he started out doing it the hard way. The cunning Hawks forward is set to break the rookie games record as he plays game No.293, all while still making a valuable contribution with two goals in the win over the Dockers last week.

Bobby Hill has backed up his Norm Smith Medal-winning display with 21 goals including five majors and a mark of the year contender in the heart-stopping comeback against North Melbourne. But the blistering small forward has had less success since then with only one goal as the Pies have lost their three matches since then, and now needs to find a way to lead the line as injuries mount up. 

Early tip: Hawthorn by nine points

Geelong v Western Bulldogs, GMHBA Stadium
Saturday, July 20, 7.30pm AEST

Last time: Geelong 14.11 (95) d Western Bulldogs 14.7 (91), R4 2024

What it means

Geelong (11-6) has returned to the top four for the first time since round 12 after running away late from reigning premier Collingwood and as other finals hopefuls continue to stumble. The Cats could now put a firm grip on a double chance with a win over the Bulldogs, especially with four matches against sides already out of contention to come on the run home.

The Western Bulldogs (9-8) remain one of the most unpredictable sides in the competition but showed that it could still do some damage when beating Carlton to make it six wins from their past nine matches. The Bulldogs snapped an 11-match losing streak at the Cats' fortress, going back to 2003, when overcoming them there last year, but will be wary of facing their bogey side that is now returning to form.

Game shapers

Gryan Miers was a key to the Cats' stunning start to the season as they bounced back from missing the finals last year to win their opening seven matches. But the creative forward had less impact through the side's mid-season slump, until turning around his own form with 27 disposals (12 contested) and a goal against the Magpies that showed how important he could be on the run home.

Rory Lobb was on the outer as the Bulldogs turned to their bulging group of emerging key forwards in the first half of the year. But the 31-year-old has been rejuvenated since being called on to bolster the backline three weeks ago, averaging seven marks and 13 disposals in that time as his aerial prowess helps turn defence into attack.

Early tip: Geelong by 13 points

Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval
Saturday, July 20, 7pm ACST

Last time: Port Adelaide 18.14 (122) d Richmond 13.14 (92), R2 2024

What it means

Port Adelaide (10-7) has dropped out of the top eight for the first time this season after becoming the latest side to fail to penetrate Gold Coast's home fortress to make it four defeats in its past six matches. The margin for error is now slim for the Power as their form falters, especially with ladder-leaders Sydney and Carlton to come next.

Richmond (2-15) pushed the Giants until the dying stages and might have gone even closer if it could match the visitors' accurate goalkicking while having considerably more inside 50s with 53-36. The Tigers have looked more threatening as they find more avenues to goal, with Steely Green one to impress  with three goals in just his third game.

Game shapers

Charlie Dixon has found it hard to get going in a stop-start season that has been interrupted by injury and a suspension while playing in the reserves. But the 33-year-old forward showed promising signs in his return against his former side the Suns, with 10 contested possessions and three marks inside-50, and now looms as a key in his 150th match for the Power if they are to play finals.

Jacob Koschitzke has found life tough in his first season with the Tigers but has shown signs of making the impact that he was recruited for across the past month. The former Hawk was a useful marking target as the Tigers pushed the Giants, booting two goals and taking three grabs inside 50 to give his new side a focal point.

Early tip: Port Adelaide by 25 points

Brisbane v Sydney, Gabba
Sunday, July 21, 1.10pm AEST

Last time: Brisbane 13.19 (97) d Sydney 12.9 (81), R14 2023

What it means

Brisbane (10-6-1) has surged into the top four after sitting as low as 13th mid-season and now has an opportunity to prove its premiership credentials against the competition benchmark. The Lions have turned their home ground back into a fortress, winning their past five at the venue, but might want to avoid a shootout against a Swans outfit that has passed 100 points 11 times this year.

Sydney (14-3) returned to form after two narrow defeats with a resounding victory over North Melbourne but can expect a stiffer challenge against last year's runner-up Brisbane on its home deck. The Swans are still looking to address the slow starts that have had them fail to lead by more than a goal at the first change even once in nine weeks, and won't want to give the Lions any leeway as they look for a seventh win on the trot.

Game shapers

Darcy Wilmot has helped the Lions overcome the absence of dashing defender Keidean Coleman for all but the opening match of this season as a reliable part of their backline. The 20-year-old has not missed a match since his debut in the 2022 finals series and is now averaging 20 disposals and adding more rebound as a key to the Lions' return to form.

Logan McDonald endured a difficult fortnight as he missed late opportunities to snatch victory for the Swans in consecutive weeks but put that aside with a dominant display against the Roos. The emerging key forward bounced back with nine disposals and two goals in the opening term and finished with four majors for his equal-best haul this year. 

Early tip: Brisbane by four points

Fremantle v Melbourne, Optus Stadium
Sunday, July 21, 1.20pm AWST

Last time: Fremantle 22.9 (141) d Melbourne 7.7 (49), R12 2024

What it means

Fremantle (10-6-1) arguably announced itself as a top-four contender when demolishing Melbourne by 92 points just seven weeks ago in Alice Springs. The Dockers have won three of five matches since then but fell back into the chasing pack with a defeat to the Hawks last week, and could now drop out of the top eight with another loss and the Western Derby to come. 

Melbourne (10-7) made it back-to-back wins with a rousing victory over Essendon as an undermanned line-up missing captain Max Gawn returned to the top eight for the first time since round 11. The Demons could now leapfrog the Dockers and climb to the brink of the top four with their first win on the road since two-in-two weeks at Adelaide Oval in rounds four and five. 

Game shapers

Luke Ryan has made his name as one of the premier intercepting and rebound defenders in the game, but has again shown he has more strings to his bow while leading the Dockers' undermanned back six. The 28-year-old will play his 150th match this week while averaging a career-best 24.2 disposals a game and is sure to test the Demons' forward ability to defend as well as attack.

Trent Rivers has grasped his opportunity to play more midfield minutes with gun teammate Christian Petracca ruled out for the season as the Demons build their depth for this season and beyond. The 22-year-old has gathered a career-high 29 disposals in each of the past two weeks, and added a personal-best eight clearances against the Bombers as he looks at home around the stoppages.

Early tip: Fremantle by 17 points

Carlton v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
Sunday, July 21, 4.40pm AEST

Last time: Carlton 21.11 (137) d North Melbourne 12.9 (81), R3 2024

What it means

Carlton (11-6) looked like the most likely challenger to pacesetters Sydney but is now at risk of dropping out of the top four after back-to-back defeats. The Blues' twin towers Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay combined for nine goals the last time these two sides met but will now face a different prospect against a more settled Roos defence.

North Melbourne (2-15) came crashing back to earth with a thud after a promising month of results when ladder leaders Sydney handed it a 79-point reality check. The Kangaroos face another tough task against the wounded Blues looking to bounce back from two consecutive defeats, but might like their chances of an emerging midfield testing the flag fancies.

Game shapers

Adam Cerra arrived at Carlton as one of the keys to its rebuild ahead of the 2022 season after 76 matches for Fremantle, and will now reach a half-century of games with his second club. The onballer has not had the impact he would have hoped this season, with 25 disposals in Opening Round his highest haul for the season, and will want to rediscover form ahead of finals to grow the Blues' midfield depth.

Nick Larkey continues to play a lone hand in the Kangaroos' attack at times and has backed up his All-Australian year with 34 goals in 17 matches. The Roos spearhead booted three critical goals in the win over the Suns but was perhaps even better in the defeat to the Swans, again showing that he can make an impact from limited opportunities.

Early tip: Carlton by 14 points