THE PROBLEM right now for Essendon is that there isn't just one.
The Bombers' form drop – they have lost six of their past eight games and their past three – has put their finals spot in jeopardy with four rounds to play.
The case of Don-ja vu, following last year's dramatic late-season slide, has seen a team withdraw into itself as the potential of better things lay ahead.
Expectations have for many years dogged the Bombers, burdened by 20 years of mediocrity and a list that still has gaps just when a drought-breaking finals win looked potentially in sight. The King Kong-sized gorilla on back of the Bombers was inherited by Brad Scott.
It is hard to otherwise explain exactly what has taken over the Bombers' psyche, with their smashing at the hands of St Kilda on Saturday seeing them drop to 10th on the ladder.
The numbers tell part, but not all, of the story. In winning the ball, defending the opposition and converting their chances, the Bombers have dipped significantly since mid-season.
The ball-winning decline is the start of the issues. Essendon, up to round 12, had ranked third in the League for differentials in contested possessions, eighth for groundballs and 10th for hard ball gets. Since their round 12 defeat to Gold Coast, the Bombers have ranked last in the League for hard ball gets, third last for groundballs and 12th for contested possessions.
The lack of their best clearance player Darcy Parish for all but one game in that eight-match block made the task harder and the reliance on Zach Merrett became greater as the season has worn on, evidenced by the even closer attention he has gotten from taggers in recent weeks.
Jye Caldwell and Sam Durham have continued to press on as genuine highlights of the season – Caldwell developing into a brute ball-getter after progressing from a half-forward role and Durham bringing a physicality and toughness from the wing to an inside midfield position as one of the competition's most improved players – but Essendon's midfield combinations haven't had the same impact as the first half of the year. It hasn't been through lack of trying: Jake Stringer, Dylan Shiel, Archie Perkins have all rolled through there.
The Bombers haven't adjusted as well as other teams to the League's mid-year holding the ball rule change, which was implemented in round 12. After a strong focus on improving their extraction skills over pre-season, they haven't adapted as other sides to the tweak giving players less time to dispose of the ball.
The decline in ball-winning has put their defence under pressure. Champion Data shows Essendon ranks bottom-four in points conceded, points against from turnover, points from turnover differential, opposition scores per inside 50 percentage, opposition goal per inside 50 percentage and opposition shot at goal accuracy. Experienced defenders have been out of form all at once.
The frustration for the Bombers is that despite the above, they have had opportunities. Three games this season have been roll overs – against the Saints, Port Adelaide in round four and in the second half against Geelong in round 16. Otherwise, the Bombers have maintained larger levels of consistency than previous years.
Conversion – and making moments theirs – has not been effective. Since round 12, despite the defeats, Essendon ranks fourth for inside-50 entries and third for forward half intercepts. But it is third last for scores per inside-50 entry and second last for points from forward half intercepts.
In its past six losses, Essendon has come out on top in the expected score four times. The Bombers have lost expected score two times since round eight but have lost six games since then.
They dropped Peter Wright after a run of no-impact games. Nate Caddy is going to be a player and is the future, but Kyle Langford has had the biggest drop-off in Player Ratings of any Bomber from the first half of the season to the second according to Champion Data (12 to seven) and goalkicker Jade Gresham is next (down 2.9 points).
Essendon would find more crumbs at Rockpool than inside-50 and has battled for small forward impact, with Matt Guelfi (15) the leading goalkicker of the small brigade whilst also playing defensive shut-down roles.
Of the players Champion Data classifies as small forwards, Essendon has had the third least goals kicked from that group since round 12 of any club (ahead of only Port Adelaide and West Coast). Again, it is not through a lack of trying options: Alwyn Davey jnr has been in, Nick Hind as well and Jye Menzie too.
It is obvious why the Bombers tried to get Suns free agent Ben Ainsworth to the club and why talented small forward Isaak Kako as a Next Generation Academy product looms as a bonus get.
Just as numbers have been rolled through the midfield, Essendon's coaches have also been trying different things to force a form uptick. Harrison Jones is more consistently involved on a wing and Nik Cox has also played with more confidence. Having a second Nic Martin would be handy, for Essendon needs his run when he's not in the back half but knows his value up the ground, too.
With their horror injury run at the end of last season that cruelled any top-eight shot in mind, and their list of injuries at training in the first half of this season season (Parish, Jordan Ridley, Ben Hobbs, Xavier Duursma were among the players to suffer soft-tissue training injuries), the Bombers made adjustments to their training at the mid-point of this season. The risk mitigation has worked for availability but the game focus has come during a collective form drop.
Even as Essendon jumped to its hot start to the year, losing just two of its first 11 games, Scott weekly remained unmoved on his stance of the competition being more even than ever and the Bombers still having work to do. The irony is that it took a run of losses for his point to be proven.
