THE RACE for finals places is gradually losing contenders as the likes of Essendon head in the wrong direction and the hopes of several more clubs are hanging on by a thread.
The Western Bulldogs have turned back the clock with a change of identity to Footscray this week, but will want to cling to their recent purple patch when they take on Melbourne, while West Coast and Gold Coast make it a double-header on Friday night.
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Old rivals Collingwood and Carlton meet on Saturday night with both sides shaken by form and fitness issues, after North Melbourne and Richmond face off to try to avoid the wooden spoon.
Here is what to watch out for during round 21 and a tip for each match.
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
Friday, August 2, 7.15pm AEST
Last time: Melbourne 16.13 (109) d Western Bulldogs 9.10 (64), R1 2024
What it means
The Bulldogs (11-8) have climbed into the top eight for the first time since round six following eight wins in their past 11 matches and could now start eyeing off a double chance. They are arguably the form side of the competition after winning three in a row for the first time this season, and have a balance across the field that looms as a huge finals threat.
Melbourne (10-9) might have given GWS a scare in the dying stages but had earlier been outplayed for long periods to leave it a win and significant percentage outside the top eight. The Demons' finals hopes are now hanging by a thread but they can at least draw level on points with the Dogs if they quickly turn their form around.
Game shapers
Adam Treloar has taken a few detours across 13 seasons with three clubs but might just be in career-best form as he reaches 250 matches. The midfielder has been a key reason behind the Dogs' resurgence this season while averaging 32.3 disposals, just short of his career-high, as he presents a strong case for a first All-Australian blazer.
Clayton Oliver showed more than just hints of his talents as he helped the Demons match the Giants' midfield but will have his work cut out against the Dogs' deep and in-form onball brigade. The 27-year-old has been unusually inconsistent after an interrupted pre-season but with his clearance game up and running again can help the Demons cling to their finals hopes.
Early tip: Western Bulldogs by 11 points
West Coast v Gold Coast, Optus Stadium
Friday, August 2, 6.30pm AWST
Last time: Gold Coast 17.10 (112) d West Coast 12.3 (75), R7 2024
What it means
West Coast (3-16) made an early statement against heated rival Fremantle before being overwhelmed in the second half for a ninth defeat on the trot. The Eagles will now hope to challenge the Suns that are yet to win away from their home across four quarters, with time running out for coach Jarrad Schofield to lead them to a first win.
Gold Coast (9-10) suffered its first defeat on home turf as arch-rival Brisbane ran away late but now needs to bounce back on the road to keep its fading finals hopes alive. The Suns have little margin for error from here but at least have a friendly run home with the out-of-sorts Bombers, Demons and Tigers to come next.
Game shapers
Harley Reid has already shown in a pair of Western Derbies that he can burn bright as the heat rises but now must prove that he can also make his mark when the stakes are more routine. The 19-year-old gathered career-highs for 29 disposals and 10 clearances last week, and a similar performance against the Suns could secure the Eagles a first win in 10 matches.
Noah Anderson has become the leading light of the Suns' onball brigade across five seasons and he passed 100 matches with a gallant performance even as the Lions overpowered his side. But the 23-year-old has rarely been able to hit his high standard when on the road this season and will have to help lift the Suns if they are to clinch a first win away from home.
Early tip: Gold Coast by seven points
North Melbourne v Richmond, Marvel Stadium
Saturday, August 3, 1.45pm AEST
Last time: Richmond 14.17 (101) d North Melbourne 10.12 (72), R23 2023
What it means
North Melbourne (2-17) had its moments against Geelong, including with a fast start, before the gap between the finals contenders and also-rans was exposed. The Kangaroos are back in their own weight division this week, with a clash that could decide this year's wooden spoon while Alastair Clarkson's side also aims to avoid a fifth bottom-two finish in a row.
Richmond (2-17) did well to avoid being blown away against wounded reigning premier Collingwood while showing promising signs with a late flourish. But the Tigers need to play four quarters and push for a victory this week to leapfrog the Roos and out of bottom place, even while playing at a venue where they have not won since 2021.
Game shapers
Cameron Zurhaar wanted to see improved form from the Kangaroos before extending his stay but has given the side a timely boost when he re-signed this week. The bullocking forward has been a key to the Roos' belated change in fortunes and can now start to chase down his career-high of 34 goals in a season with a bag this week.
Hugo Ralphsmith has ridden some out highs and lows since making his debut in 2021 but has found more consistency during a current run of 13 matches in a row. The 22-year-old is at his most threatening when finding the ball on the outside then delivering it inside 50 but could do with now adding more goals to his game.
Early tip: North Melbourne by 14 points
Geelong v Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium
Saturday, August 3, 4.35pm AEST
Last time: Geelong 14.12 (96) d Adelaide 11.11 (77), R2 2024
What it means
Geelong (12-7) did what it needed to do to brush aside North Melbourne and bolster its finals hopes with a fourth win in five matches. The Cats might not quite be purring as in their early-season winning streak but they can keep pushing for a top-four finish with a run home that includes matches against the Crows, Saints and Eagles who are mostly playing for pride.
Adelaide (7-11-1) had looked like being one of the sides to shake up the finals places even after it fell out of contention before a poor performance against Hawthorn last week. The Crows can still have their say with four more top-eight hopefuls to come, though the first of those against the Cats is at a venue where they have lost 13 in a row starting in 2004.
Game shapers
Tom Stewart has put a rare form slump behind him to relish a new role that has the gun defender often starting in the midfield before making the most of his elite intercepting talents around the ground. The 31-year-old has averaged 26.6 disposals over the past five weeks as the Cats have returned to form, while also taking his trusted kicking skills into the forward half.
Jake Soligo has been the pleasant surprise in a disappointing season for the Crows as he averages 22.3 disposals while adding a defensive focus to their midfield. The 21-year-old finished one short of his career-high 31 touches even as his side was dismantled by the Hawks, as Soligo showed that he is ready to step up as the Crows were hit hard by injury.
Early tip: Geelong by 22 points
Collingwood v Carlton, MCG
Saturday, August 3, 7.30pm AEST
Last time: Collingwood 12.13 (85) d Carlton 12.7 (79), R8 2024
What it means
Collingwood (9-8-2) snapped its first four-match losing streak under coach Craig McRae with an improved performance against bottom-placed Richmond to keep its finals hopes alive. But the Magpies will now need to build on that to challenge the Blues and disrupt their old foes' top-four hopes, while celebrating their former skipper's milestone match in style.
Carlton (12-7) is heading in the wrong direction after three defeats to finals contenders in its past four matches, as its lack of midfield depth has been exposed. But the Blues will hope to at least match their arch-rivals in that area, while facing them at a venue where they have won 11 of their past 13.
Game shapers
Scott Pendlebury has rightly earned plenty of plaudits, as well as two premierships, across his 19 seasons with the Magpies but will enter esteemed company as the sixth player to reach 400 matches. The 36-year-old is far from crawling to the line as well, playing a critical role as the reigning premiers try to keep their finals hopes alive whether lining up in the midfield or across the defence.
Charlie Curnow almost played a lone hand as the Blues were overwhelmed by the Power and might need to have a similar impact against the traditional rivals with forward partner Harry McKay under an injury cloud. The 27-year-old is closing in on a third consecutive Coleman Medal, even if he is 25 goals short of last year's mark, with another haul likely to boost his side's top-four hopes.
Early tip: Carlton by four points
Port Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval
Saturday, August 3, 7pm ACST
Last time: Port Adelaide 9.12 (66) d Sydney 9.10 (64), R4 2023
What it means
Port Adelaide (12-7) has put a mini form slump behind it to win four of its past five matches and now only sits outside the top four on percentage. But in a pointer to how tight it is at the top, the Power need to beat the ladder-leading Sydney for the eighth time in a row to be sure of holding onto their place in the eight.
Sydney (14-5) looked unstoppable as it surged to a 13-1 record but warning bells have started ringing with four defeats in its past five matches, including a heavy loss to Western Bulldogs last week. The Swans have been made to pay for injuries to key players but could all but sew up a top-four finish with a first win over the Power since 2016.
Game shapers
Aliir Aliir has been a pillar in the Power's backline since joining the club ahead of the 2021 season whether in a shutdown role or more focused on turning defence into attack. The 29-year-old will now play his 150th match against his former club while trying to pile more pressure on their stuttering group of key forwards.
Chad Warner has lit up the Swans this season and often been the player to spark the ladder leaders even when they have been challenged in recent weeks. But the 23-year-old had a rare off day when limited to 11 disposals against the Bulldogs, for his equal-lowest haul since his 2020 debut season, and might be given an opportunity to bounce back alongside a forward group missing Tom Papley.
Early tip: Sydney by 13 points
Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn, Manuka Oval
Sunday, August 4, 1.10pm AEST
Last time: Hawthorn 12.13 (85) d GWS Giants 12.7 (79), R13 2024
What it means
GWS (12-7) has bounced back to the brink of the top four with four consecutive wins even if it blew hot then cold against Melbourne last week. The Giants will have to do it the hard way if they are to secure a finals spot, with matches to come against the in-form Hawks, Lions, Dockers and Bulldogs in a horror run home.
Hawthorn (11-8) has well and truly put its dismal start to the season behind it with 11 wins from its past 14 matches while building into irrepressible form in recent weeks. Back-to-back 11-goal victories over the Magpies and then Crows have given the Hawks a much-needed percentage boost, and a similar triumph this week could see coach Sam Mitchell's side finally rise into the top eight.
Game shapers
Callan Ward has looked rejuvenated since returning to a wing in recent weeks to help the Giants overcome form and fitness concerns. The 34-year-old will now become the first player to reach 250 games for the Giants, after playing 60 times with the Bulldogs before moving north ahead of the 2021 season, while the former co-captain's leadership remains invaluable.
Connor Macdonald has hardly put a foot wrong since making his debut in the opening round of the 2022 season but is now living up to all of his promise as a key to the Hawks' stunning rise. The 21-year-old booted two goals and gathered 28 disposals against the Crows, a week after kicking four majors against the Pies, as the livewire adds energy to a forward group taking their side toward the top eight.
Early tip: GWS by three points
Essendon v Fremantle, MCG
Sunday, August 4, 3.20pm AEST
Last time: Fremantle 14.9 (93) d Essendon 9.7 (61), R15 2023
What it means
Essendon (10-8-1) has slid out of the top eight for the first time since round five after six defeats in its past eight matches and now has little time to turn its form around. But a win over the Dockers could give the under-fire Bombers' finals hopes a much-needed boost especially with the current top two in the Swans and Lions still to come.
Fremantle (12-6-1) has continued to press its claims for a top-four finish with five wins in its past six matches and might now start targeting a home final. The Dockers should hold few fears for facing the out-of-sorts Bombers at the MCG, where the visitors have won three of four matches since the start of last year.
Game shapers
Kyle Langford has become one of the top key forwards in the competition since settling into a spot inside 50 on the way to booting 51 goals last season. The 27-year-old is closing in on a similar tally this year as he prepares to play his 150th match as the Bombers' focal point while they search for a path to get their finals hopes back on track.
Caleb Serong is the main ball magnet in a sublime Dockers midfield that is powering much of their success and an unexpected push for a top-four finish. The 23-year-old has the fourth-most disposals and second-most clearances in the competition, as he puts his hand up to earn a second All-Australian blazer and perhaps the ultimate team success.
Early tip: Fremantle by nine points
St Kilda v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium
Sunday, August 4, 4.40pm AEST
Last time: Brisbane 19.12 (126) d St Kilda 16.10 (106), R14 2024
What it means
St Kilda (8-11) has found some late-season form with three victories in its past four matches including a thumping win over Essendon last week. The Saints have even started to score more heavily, passing the 100-mark in consecutive weeks after only doing so twice before this season, with a change of fortunes that might frustrate as much as excite their fans.
Brisbane (12-6-1) has confirmed its place among the most genuine of flag fancies with eight consecutive victories while rising from as low as 13th spot just six weeks ago. The Lions' assertive style seems especially suited to the dry decks on their home turf, as much as under the roof at this venue where they have won eight of 10 matches since the start of 2021.
Game shapers
Mitch Owens made a fast start to his career but has found the going tougher in recent times ahead of playing his 50th match. The 20-year-old has shown signs of returning to form in the past two weeks, with 18 disposals and a goal against both the Bombers and Eagles, with his versatility a useful weapon as the Saints look to finish the season on a high.
Dayne Zorko has not so much turned back the clock as maintained the rage to put himself in All-Australian consideration while helping the Lions turn their season around. The 35-year-old is averaging a career-high 26.1 disposals since getting his body right and taking on a new role in defence, as the Lions look a serious premiership threat in his 13th season.
Early tip: Brisbane by 17 points
