THE SUNDAY twilight game in round 23 could be the one that tips the Coleman Medal race in Charlie Curnow's favour.

Having been the leading goalkicker for most of the year, Curnow has dropped to second behind Greater Western Sydney spearhead Jesse Hogan after the Blues star went goalless for the first time in 66 games, against Collingwood last Saturday night.

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While Curnow's output has dropped in recent weeks, Hogan is running hot with four or more goals in each of his past five games – the first man to do so since Tom Hawkins in 2019 – to hold a two-goal lead over Curnow with three rounds to go.

On form, the impressive Hogan is the hot tip to win the award. But of the matches to come, Carlton's clash with West Coast in round 23 looms as one that could see Curnow move back to the top.

Curnow has done as he's pleased against the Eagles in the past two years, kicking bags of 10, nine and five in his past three games against them. While previous success is no guarantee he will dominate again, it bodes well for him as he chases a third consecutive Coleman.

Carlton's clash with the Eagles is sandwiched between games with two clubs Curnow has enjoyed moderate success against in the past three seasons; Hawthorn (six goals in two games) and St Kilda (five goals in three games).

How Curnow is used by the Blues in the run home compared to Hogan will also play a key role in which player finishes the season on top.

Over the past six weeks during Hogan's stunning run of form, Curnow has had the same number of shots on goal (28) and been targeted going forward (50 times) as often as Hogan (28 shots on goal, 51 times targeted).

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The main difference between the pair has been accuracy in front of goal, and where on the ground the shots have been taken. Hogan has kicked a remarkable 24.3 in his past six weeks, with all but three of his shots on goal coming in the middle third of the forward 50, directly in front. In contrast, Curnow has had nine shots from the pockets and another seven from outside 50 for a return of 13.12.

While Curnow's recent record against the Eagles jumps off the page when looking at the run home, getting a read on Hogan's form against his next three opponents is a little more difficult.

The Giants spearhead has enjoyed only moderate success against this week's opponent, Brisbane, in the past three years, kicking six goals in four games against them. That included 1.2 from eight disposals in round seven this year, but Hogan wasn't needed to fire in that game as the Giants smalls blitzed the Lions to the tune of 54 points.

Having missed last year's game against Fremantle, Hogan has not faced the Dockers – GWS's round 23 opponent – since the end of the 2022 season, although he did kick five goals in two games against them that year.

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Hogan should take confidence into the final game of the home and away season against the Western Bulldogs having kicked three goals against them (in a heavy defeat) back in May. However, that Bulldogs backline did not include the rejuvenated Rory Lobb or Buku Khamis, who have provided invaluable defensive support to Liam Jones during the club's surge up the ladder in recent weeks. The venue for that match, Mars Stadium in Ballarat, could also work against Hogan given it has traditionally been a low-scoring ground.

Regardless of who the Giants play in the next three weeks, a forward line that will be without the injured Jake Riccardi for the rest of the home and away season will continue to have Hogan as its centrepiece.

"We rely on him heavily, sometimes we rely on him too much and I'd like our other guys to pull their weight," coach Adam Kingsley conceded after the narrow win over Hawthorn last Sunday.

"But it's difficult when you're putting Jesse as a key forward and then you're playing a 25-gamer next to him, 19/20-year-old, and you've got a 20-year-old playing his third game.

"We had Max (Gruzewski) and Aaron (Cadman) ahead of the ball trying to contribute, and I thought they competed, for the most part, quite well. But they're not really a threat yet."

Kingsley may well want more variety in attack, but the Giants’ reliance on Hogan could steer him to a Coleman Medal.