CARLTON is sliding, Hawthorn is coming. So, who will make it to September?
Sunday afternoon's clash has the feel of an elimination final in August. Just four points and eight per cent separates the Blues and the Hawks, with Michael Voss' side desperately trying to stave off the momentum of Sam Mitchell's outfit.
Victory could be enough to seal Carlton's place in the finals once again. But defeat will open the door to Hawthorn, who is riding an all-encompassing surge towards a remarkable top-eight berth.
Ahead of the pivotal clash, AFL.com.au delves into Champion Data stats to look at the five important areas that could decide the contest and analyse exactly where this encounter could be won or lost.
THE MOMENTUM BATTLE
Carlton's slide has been as rapid as it has been surprising. After five straight wins throughout June, capped by a 63-point belting of Geelong, the Blues had looked like a premiership team. Then, leading Greater Western Sydney by 33 points at quarter-time in the very next game, a sixth straight win had looked an inevitability. But the Giants fought back and Carlton has never recovered.
Four defeats from their next five matches followed, salvaged only by a scrappy win over the lowly North Melbourne, and Michael Voss and his side are now clinging to a spot in the top-eight. Hawthorn, conversely, is the competition's form team. After starting the year at 1-6, the Hawks have since won 10 of their last 13 matches playing an exciting brand of football.
When you consider Sam Mitchell's side threw away big final-quarter leads to Port Adelaide and the Giants in that stretch, it could have been a lot better as well. Had you started the season at round eight, Hawthorn would be a game clear in second on the ladder. It goes to show just how wide the form gap is between these sides going into Sunday's pivotal clash.
IN THE TRENCHES
Carlton and Hawthorn both rank among the top four sides for contested ball differential this season. So, who will come out on top? It could be one to watch throughout Sunday's clash, given it has proved so important for both teams during the year.
The Blues, who rank No.2 in the League for contested footy, are 11-5 when they win at the contest but are 1-3 when they lose. The Hawks, who rank No.4 for contested ball, are 8-4 when they lead in this statistical metric but are 3-5 when they lose.
One component that could work in Hawthorn's favour is the fact it is far and away the League's best team for groundball differential. Carlton, meanwhile, ranks No.7 in the competition.
WHERE TO TRANSITION
Carlton and Hawthorn play vastly opposing styles of football. The Blues choose to transition the ball through the corridor under Voss, while the Hawks under Mitchell have been a side keen to play down the boundary. This season, Carlton ranks No.5 in the AFL for defensive-50-to-corridor rate and No.15 for defensive-50-to-boundary rate.
Conversely, Hawthorn ranks No.1 in the competition for defensive-50-to-boundary rate and No.17 for defensive-50-to-corridor rate. So far, though, the Hawks are having greater tactical success than the Blues in the way they play. Hawthorn ranks No.8 in the League for converting rebound-50s to inside-50s playing mainly down the boundary, while Carlton ranks No.16 in the same metric playing mainly through the corridor.
SCORING FROM STOPPAGE
Both teams can score from turnover. Both teams can win the ball from clearance. But the big difference could be Hawthorn's ability to score from stoppage, up against Carlton's inability to defend from stoppage. While both sides rank in the top three across the last six weeks for scoring from turnover, and both sides rank in the top eight for clearance differential across the same period, Hawthorn sits No.6 in the competition for scoring from clearance.
Carlton, meanwhile, ranks No.16 throughout that same stretch. In terms of converting clearances to scores, the Hawks are the fifth-best side in the game over the last six weeks. The Blues are the second-worst, going at a significantly poorer rate than their Sunday opponents. It could be a massive factor at the MCG.
QUELLING CHARLIE
For the first time in 66 games, Carlton superstar Charlie Curnow was held goalless during last weekend's loss to Collingwood. Now, Hawthorn will be desperate to repeat the trick. Curnow, who is looking for a third straight Coleman Medal later this year, helped the Blues run rampant against the Hawks last season by kicking three goals in a comfortable win.
There's no doubt Mitchell will subsequently be desperate to ensure his impact is limited at the MCG. James Sicily remains one of the competition's best intercept players across half-back, while Sam Frost has emerged as one of the game's most effective shutdown defenders, with both set to spend significant amounts of time on Curnow across Sunday's match. Can they keep Carlton's match-winner quiet?