WE'RE at the ‘snakes and ladders’ part of the season now.
By that we mean the games that can mean the difference between three or four places on the ladder, and which by the end of the season, will decide not just who makes the finals, but who gets home games and double chances.
Richmond would seem impregnable in the top two given four of their remaining seven games are all at the MCG, where it has won a record-equalling 17 straight matches.
But then it gets murky, with the next 11 teams on the table still harbouring finals hopes. At the other end of the ladder, the wooden spoon isn’t quite yet on its way to Ikon Park.
Using AFL.com.au’s new and improved ladder predictor, we have nominated all the crunch games between now and the end of August and what the stakes might mean for the winners and losers.
One thing is already clear. Round 23 will be massive and the make-up of the eight and the opening week of the finals might not be decided until the 198th and final game of the season. Strap yourselves in.
R18
Coll v NM, MCG: Huge for the Pies’ hopes of the double chance and the Kangas need an upset or two to break into the eight.
Geel v Melb, GMHBA: Chris Scott reckons the top four might be out of reach. He’s right if they don't win this. Melbourne hearts will beat true if it wins here.
PA v GWS, AO: The Power slipped up last week and need to get back on their bike to get back in the top four.
R19
Ess v Syd, ES: Sensing a big Friday night for the Bombers as they upset the Swans and send them out of the top four.
Rich v Coll, MCG: Fortress MCG for the Tigers, who can’t afford to slip up if they want to stay top two.
Adel v Melb, AO: At Geelong one week, at Adelaide the next. It’s a tough stretch for the Demons.
GC v Carl, MS: A win to the Suns will guarantee the spoon for the Blues.
NM v WC, BA: Good week for the Kangas to be playing at their second home, where they go well. A win here keeps them in touch.
Frem v Haw, OS: Not such a winnable game anymore for Hawthorn, with the Dockers finding some form at home.
R20
Rich v Geel, MCG: Can the Cats win a big one on the MCG? They’ll shore up a finals berth if they can.
Haw v Ess, MCG: Just about an eight-point game. Finals unlikely for the loser.
Adel v PA, AO: Huge game if the Crows are still alive and for Port’s top-two aspirations.
Syd v Coll, SCG: The Pies usually travel well and the SCG is no longer quite the fortress it was. The winner could be in the four after this.
R21
Haw v Geel, MCG: Geelong could plunge a near-fatal dagger into their modern-day rival with a win.
PA v WC, AO: Both have top-four aspirations. Massive boost for the winner.
GWS v Adel, UNSW: The Giants will be happy to be at their second home where they play well. The Crows haven’t been there in 16 years.
NM v WB, ES: North cannot afford a slip-up here against a tricky opponent.
Melb v Syd, MCG: Win here and the Dees can nearly book themselves a finals berth.
R22
Coll v PA, MCG: Essential for the Pies if they want a top-four finish, and for Port’s hopes of making the top two.
StK v Haw, ES: Wouldn't the Saints love to play the spoiler?
WC v Melb, OS: If West Coast wants the double chance, it must win this. The Dees won't want to tempt fate in the final round of the season once again, with a loss here.
Adel v NM, AO: North will likely need to win to stay in touch with the eight.
R23
Syd v Haw, SCG: The Hawks have won their last four at the SCG but miss out on the finals even if they make it five, which is doubtful. Likely Friday night game.
Bris v WC: West Coast makes its longest road trip against a confident young side with nothing to lose.
Melb v GWS: Just win, Melbourne. After round 23 last year, there is no alternative. The Giants will play finals irrespective of the result. This game will likely be on the Sunday.
Frem v Coll, OS: Good thing for the Pies they travel well because they might need to win to book the double chance. Good chance this game will be late Sunday.
Predicted ladder
1. Richmond
2. West Coast
3. Port Adelaide
4. Collingwood
5. Geelong
6. Sydney
7. GWS
8. Melbourne
9. North Melbourne
10. Hawthorn
11. Adelaide
12. Essendon
13. Fremantle
14. Brisbane
15. Western Bulldogs
16. St Kilda
17. Gold Coast
18. Carlton
