WE ARE only two weeks into August, but already this month has been the toughest on record to defend a lead.
Over the past two rounds of football, half the games played have been won by the team that has trailed at three-quarter time.
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It's rare territory. The five games in round 22 that were won by teams trailing at the final break is the equal most for a single round. Add in the four from round 21 and it's the most in a two-week stretch of games on record.
While the crazy past fortnight has reached new heights, the season overall had been falling short of the recent trend. In four of the past seven seasons, teams have won from a three-quarter time deficit on more than 30 occasions. Up until two weeks ago, 2024 was tracking to be one of the lowest in recent memory, with just 17 instances to that point.
Top of the list of last-term fadeouts this year is Fremantle, whose season is suddenly on edge after giving up leads at three-quarter time twice in six days, against Essendon in round 21 and Geelong in round 22.
The Dockers have led at the final change and lost five times this season. No other club this year has done it more than twice.
"How well drilled is this club? How much time do they spend on the little things? How much time do they spend (on) protecting a lead or chasing a lead? Well, not enough judging by that," Port Adelaide champion Kane Cornes said on the AFL.com.au's The Round So Far on Saturday.
"That was a game (against Geelong) they had to win particularly after last week (against Essendon) ... that's a disastrous loss.
"To cough off another loss like that when your top-four hopes and premiership hopes are on the line, it's a bad loss."
On the flip side, Port Adelaide has won after trailing at the final break four times, twice as many as any other club.
While the Dockers have been lumped with the 'Fade-mantle' tag, Greater Western Sydney has lived out the words from its team song in the past six weeks – we will never surrender.
In four of its past six games, the Giants have overcome a deficit of four goals or more to win – against Carlton, Melbourne, Hawthorn and Brisbane.
Meanwhile, North Melbourne has been the club most likely to blow a massive advantage in 2024. Of the top seven biggest leads in a loss this season, three of them belong to the Roos – 54 points against Collingwood in round 14, 35 points against West Coast last Saturday and 33 points against Fremantle in round two.
Carlton and Brisbane have also given up leads of 24+ points on three separate occasions this year.
There have been some historic highs this year as well; the comebacks of the Magpies (54 points against North), Blues (46 points against Brisbane), Port Adelaide (41 points against Hawthorn) and Giants (39 points against Carlton) sit in the top two of those clubs' all-time comebacks.
Overall, there have been 20 instances this year of teams winning having trailed by four goals or more during the match. The record is 24 (in 2008 and 2017) and with two rounds still to go in a crazy season, you'd be brave to say that mark won't be reached again this year.
So what is the reason for this very modern trend? AFL.com.au's Damian Barrett said on AFL Daily last week that there is an "absolute link" to the 6-6-6 rule (introduced in 2019) and the stand the mark rule (2021), a theory backed up by Geelong coach Chris Scott.
"The 6-6-6 is a terrible rule for coaches and an amazing rule for spectators. The stand rule is a really good one to open the game up," Scott said recently.
"You have the quandary more than you ever that if you push the needle on offence, you open yourself up the other way.
"We're seeing now in today's game that if you play a really defensive game, the opposition will have their moments at some point in time.
"If you don't ride the momentum when you have it, you leave yourself vulnerable to a really good team."
So if you think a game is over in 2024, don't head for the stands or switch off the TV. The comeback is on more than ever.
Winning after trailing at 3QT
Sydney v Collingwood, R22
Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane, R22
West Coast v North Melbourne, R22
Port Adelaide v Melbourne, R22
Geelong v Fremantle, R22
Essendon v Fremantle, R21
Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn, R21
Geelong v Adelaide, R21
West Coast v Gold Coast, R21
Port Adelaide v Carlton, R20
Adelaide v Essendon, R19
Brisbane v Sydney, R19
Hawthorn v Fremantle, R18
St Kilda v Sydney, R17
Brisbane v Melbourne, R16
Collingwood v North Melbourne, R14
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood, R12
St Kilda v West Coast, R12
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, R10
Collingwood v Carlton, R8
Melbourne v Geelong, R8
Port Adelaide v Fremantle, R5
Carlton v Fremantle, R4
Essendon v St Kilda, R3
Melbourne v Port Adelaide, R3
Carlton v Richmond, R1
Winning after trailing by 24+ points, 2024
Collingwood v North Melbourne, R14 (trailed by 54)
Carlton v Brisbane, OR (trailed by 46)
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, R10 (trailed by 41)
Greater Western Sydney v Carlton, R17 (trailed by 39)
Sydney v Geelong, R13 (trailed by 35)
West Coast v North Melbourne, R22 (trailed by 35)
Fremantle v North Melbourne, R2 (trailed by 33)
Collingwood v Port Adelaide, R6 (trailed by 31)
St Kilda v Sydney, R17 (trailed by 30)
Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane, R22 (trailed by 30)
Geelong v Richmond, R12 (trailed by 29)
Greater Western Sydney v Hawthorn, R21 (trailed by 29)
Greater Western Sydney v Melbourne, R20 (trailed by 27)
Sydney v Collingwood, R22 (trailed by 27)
West Coast v Richmond, R5 (trailed by 26)
Sydney v Carlton, R10 (trailed by 26)
Fremantle v Brisbane, R1 (trailed by 25)
Essendon v Fremantle, R21 (trailed by 25)
Brisbane v Melbourne, R16 (trailed by 24)