THE FINALS race is going right down to the wire with a top-four spot and the opportunity to host finals in week one among the prizes still well and truly up for grabs.
Geelong will hope to hold onto its double chance when it meets West Coast on Saturday, but a surprise defeat would open the door for one of the four teams within reach to walk through and snatch fourth spot.
A place in the top eight could even be on the line in the last match of the home and away season, if results fall the right way before Fremantle faces Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon.
Here is what to look out for across round 24, as well game shapers and a tip for each match.
Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG
Friday, August 23, 7.40pm AEST
Last time: Collingwood 14.5 (89) d Melbourne 6.15 (51), R13 2024
What it means
Melbourne (11-11) finally turned around its form when its backs were to the wall with a comprehensive victory over Gold Coast after a week of off-field drama that had followed four defeats in a row. The Demons are set to miss the finals for the first time since 2020, but could make a statement ahead of next year with just a third victory over the Magpies in their 12th clash since 2017, that would put a final nail in their rivals' title defence.
Collingwood (11-9-2) kept its slim finals hopes alive when it stormed home to stun Brisbane by the narrowest of margins, but after later results went against it, a top-eight finish is now little more than a mathematical chance. The Magpies need to thump the Demons then hope the Saints do the same to the Blues, and the Dockers lose to the Power, but are more likely looking towards next year.
Game shapers
Kysaiah Pickett and the gap between his best and worst has arguably been part of the problem as the Demons' season has fallen away late in the year. The electrifying forward has had eight disposals or less in four of Melbourne's past five matches, and even had a season-low four in the win against the Suns, but one last burst of his talents could be enough to stun the Pies this week.
Nick Daicos is all but certain to be part of a side that misses out on finals for the first time in his three seasons with the Magpies. But the 21-year-old could be set for the highest of personal honours, as he is among the leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal after averaging 30.2 disposals and crucially gathering at least 20 touches while also booting multiple goals in five matches this year.
Early tip: Collingwood by four points
Hawthorn v North Melbourne, UTAS Stadium
Saturday, August 24, 12.30pm AEST
Last time: North Melbourne 10.8 (68) lost to Hawthorn 17.11 (113), R6 2024
What it means
Hawthorn (13-9) has turned around a 0-5 start to surge into the top eight and become a genuine premiership contender but still has one last hurdle to overcome to lock in a finals spot. The high-flying Hawks have the form behind them to be confident of completing the job against the Kangaroos, but with percentage still potentially a factor in where they finish, it will be critical to put the foot down and avoid a first final on the road.
North Melbourne (3-19) has mostly enjoyed an improved second half to the season, but is at risk of having some of the sheen wiped away following a dismal ending against West Coast and then a crushing defeat to the Western Bulldogs. The Roos will want to carry some positive vibes into their pre-season and little could boost their hopes more than to snatch a shock win over their old foes.
Game shapers
Dylan Moore has been edging towards a first All-Australian squad nomination after averaging 20.1 disposals and booting a career-high 31 goals to be one of the most damaging all-round performers in the forward half. The 25-year-old might now spend more time than usual in the midfield against the Roos, with Will Day sidelined as Moore fine tunes for what would be his first finals campaign.
Luke Davies-Uniacke has averaged a career-high 27.9 disposals and has the sixth-most clearances in the competition in arguably his best season to date, while perhaps impressing just as much for adding more consistency to his game. The 25-year-old gathered 30 disposals even in the heavy defeat to the Dogs last week, as he shows more and more that he can lead the midfield whether the Kangaroos are showing promising signs or dipping into one of their lows.
Early tip: Hawthorn by 37 points
Geelong v West Coast, GMHBA Stadium
Saturday, August 24, 1.45pm AEST
Last time: Geelong 21.10 (136) d West Coast 13.11 (89), R5 2023
What it means
Geelong (14-8) was firmly in the race for a top-two finish, but after a 63-point turnaround and defeat against St Kilda it now needs to beat West Coast just to seal a double chance. The Cats can be confident of brushing aside the Eagles, especially after doing so in the past eight clashes on their home deck, but the bigger the margin the more pressure it can pile onto the Power and Giants with a pair of home finals up for grabs.
West Coast (5-17) was taking huge strides towards a promising end to the season with back-to-back victories, but took a step back against the banged-up Carlton last week. The Eagles can still finish with a strong showing against one of the competition benchmarks, but will have to turn around a dire record at a venue where it has lost nine in a row by an average 70 points going back to 2006.
Game shapers
Patrick Dangerfield continued his strong second half of the season as he builds form and fitness, with 20 disposals and seven clearances even as the Cats let a huge lead slip against the Saints last week. The Geelong captain will now be out to lead his side to a top-four finish and into his eighth finals campaign in nine seasons at the club.
Harley Reid has shown more than just glimpses of his lofty potential in an impressive first campaign after being among the most highly-touted of No.1 picks ever. The dynamic midfielder gathered 26 disposals and seven clearances in the heavy loss to the Blues, but perhaps most importantly can take some valuable lessons from spending time playing on one of the best in the business in Patrick Cripps.
Early tip: Geelong by 54 points
Richmond v Gold Coast, MCG
Saturday, August 24, 3.20pm AEST
Last time: Gold Coast 14.15 (99) d Richmond 9.6 (60), OR 2024
What it means
Richmond (2-20) is all but crawling to the finish line after nine defeats in a row by an average 42 points, but now needs to balance trying to send off some stalwarts in style while having at least one eye on the future. Dustin Martin will be formally farewelled from the sidelines, but it might also be the last opportunity for Tigers fans to see some other old favourites run out in yellow and black.
Gold Coast (10-12) shook up the finals race with a first away win for more than a year against Essendon, but then failed to back up at home against an undermanned Melbourne to lock in another season behind on the win-loss ledger. The Suns might be blessed with talent, but too many players are yet to live up to the hype and now have little to play for with another finish outside the top eight assured.
Game shapers
Shai Bolton may or may not be about to play his last game for the Tigers but he remains their most watchable, if not also their most influential, player. The 25-year-old has been down on his peak numbers as Richmond has plummeted down the ladder, but with multiple goals in more than half his games this season, expect Bolton to finish with another flurry.
Touk Miller has already stated that the Suns will target a first finals appearance next year while backing the improvements made in another disappointing season that at times promised much more. The co-captain stood out with 28 disposals in the defeat to the Demons, but now needs to inspire a Suns midfield that too often fails to be the sum of its talented parts if they are to finish the year on a high.
Early tip: Gold Coast by 19 points
Brisbane v Essendon, Gabba
Saturday, August 24, 7.30pm AEST
Last time: Brisbane 12.15 (87) d Essendon 6.9 (45), R9 2023
What it means
Brisbane (13-8-1) let a gilt-edged opportunity to climb into the top four slip through its fingers, after giving up a 31-point lead against Collingwood to fall short in the dying stages by a single behind. The Lions now need to beat the Bombers and hope the Cats suffer a surprise defeat to the Eagles to snatch a double chance, but should be just as focused on getting their forward group gelling to at least lock in a home final.
Essendon (11-10-1) gave a snapshot of its season against Sydney last week, dominating the early exchanges without putting the ladder leaders away then being outclassed and overrun through the second half. The Bombers will miss the finals for the third straight campaign but must find a way to finish the season strongly and perhaps leave a mark on the top eight.
Game shapers
Cam Rayner has enjoyed some standout performances this season while hitting career-highs, averaging 15.6 disposals and booting 25 goals, but continues to frustrate as the gap between his best and worst remains vast. The former No.1 draft pick has gone goalless and had little impact in the midfield as the Lions have suffered two costly defeats and now needs to find consistency to be more than just a wildcard.
Jake Stringer is still to be tied to the Bombers for next year even after booting the equal-most goals for the club with 40 this year. The 30-year-old remains a major threat in the forward half and arguably the Bombers’ most damaging player, but queries persist over his commitment to a side that could do with a shake up after three seasons without finals.
Early tip: Brisbane by 31 points
Sydney v Adelaide, SCG
Saturday, August 24, 7.40pm AEST
Last time: Adelaide 10.7 (67) lost to Sydney 16.13 (109), R14 2024
What it means
Sydney (16-6) all but locked in top spot with another come-from-behind victory over Essendon and can now take heart from the club reaching the Grand Final in each of the previous nine times it has claimed the minor premiership. The Swans have rediscovered their form with back-to-back wins, but still have room for improvement with this an opportunity to correct their glaring concern over opening terms.
Adelaide (8-13-1) has been one of the major disappointments this season as it stretched its agonising streak without finals one year further since being runners-up in 2017. The Crows might have taken more from the season with a stronger performance in the Showdown last week, but can at least hit the pre-season running if they finish with a win over the ladder-leading Swans.
Game shapers
Luke Parker was forced to bide his time while on the outer of a Swans side in rare form after an injury-hit start to the season was made worse by an untimely suspension. The three-time club champion has been able to draw on his versatility to find a way in through the forward half, but has shown in the past two weeks that he can still have his most impact and help turn a game when playing midfield.
Jordan Dawson kept battling away with 26 classy disposals and 11 tackles in wet conditions during his own strong finish to the season even as the Crows were overpowered in the Showdown. The skipper will carry extra motivation into the clash with the Swans, as he not only takes positive vibes into the Crows' pre-season as much as return to haunt his former side.
Early tip: Sydney by 22 points
Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants, Mars Stadium
Sunday, August 25, 12.30pm AEST
Last time: Greater Western Sydney 6.7 (43) lost to Western Bulldogs 8.22 (70), R10 2024
What it means
The Western Bulldogs (13-9) have the second-highest percentage in the competition and can hang onto slim hopes of snatching a double chance, but is yet to even lock in a finals spot ahead of a crunch clash with heated rivals Greater Western Sydney. The Bulldogs need to defeat the Giants to at least finish in the top eight while victory will also ensure it hosts an elimination final rather than risk being forced onto the road.
Greater Western Sydney (15-7) has locked in a double chance and can hold out hopes of a pair of home finals with a win over the Western Bulldogs that will pile the pressure on Port Adelaide. But the Giants have few concerns with travelling, with a 9-5 record away from Engie Stadium this season, including three-from-three at Manuka Oval, and stunned the Bulldogs when they clashed at this venue only last year.
Game shapers
Aaron Naughton has been the star of the show in the Bulldogs' forward line over the past six seasons and has 30 goals from 18 matches this year but could now make the most of a support role. The high-flying forward could have more opportunities to get off the leash with opposition defences now forced to split their time minding Naughton as well as Sam Darcy and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
Brent Daniels put in a performance for the ages with 29 disposals, 13 tackles, seven clearances and, most importantly, three goals as the Giants edged past the Dockers to confirm a top-four finish. The crafty half-forward has been adding a spark to the Giants midfield and, with just over a goal-a-game as well as the most goal assists in the competition this season, might just find a place in the All-Australian squad.
Early tip: Western Bulldogs by 17 points
Carlton v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
Sunday, August 25, 3.20pm AEST
Last time: St Kilda 8.6 (54) lost to Carlton 10.13 (73), R21 2023
What it means
Carlton (13-9) put its finals hopes back in its own hands with a brave victory on the road against West Coast when its side was significantly undermanned. The Blues will hope to call on some reinforcements for the crunch clash against the Saints, where a victory will ensure a top-eight finish while a defeat will leave them at risk of being overtaken by the Dockers in the last game.
St Kilda (10-12) has been laying strong foundations for next season with five wins from its past seven matches and could now down a marker with another victory that could shake up the final eight. The Saints have unlocked their scoring power in recent weeks, as demonstrated by booting 13 goals in the second half to overrun the Cats, and can now play with similar freedom, especially if the Blues show any signs of nerves.
Game shapers
Patrick Cripps all but ensured the Blues returned to the top eight with one round remaining, gathering 35 disposals with 10 clearances to lead an injury-ravaged side to victory over the Eagles. The Blues skipper is yet again among the Brownlow Medal fancies, but three votes might be lower down on his list of priorities with a win needed to ensure he enjoys just a second finals campaign.
Darcy Wilson has been a shining light in an at times disappointing season for the Saints, averaging 15 disposals and booting as many goals after being drafted with pick No.18 last year. The hard-running teenager gathered a career-high 25 disposals and kicked two goals in the comeback win over the Cats and is now a Rising Star smoky, especially if the Saints can upset the Blues.
Early tip: Carlton by nine points
Fremantle v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium
Sunday, August 25, 4.10pm AWST
Last time: Port Adelaide 9.12 (66) d Fremantle 9.9 (63), R5 2024
What it means
Fremantle (12-9-1) had a top-four finish firmly within its grasp when sitting off second spot only on percentage three weeks ago, before a trio of narrow-but-costly defeats by an average of seven points. The Dockers now need other results to go their way and then beat the Power to snatch a top-eight spot, and with everything to play for they might roll the dice with key personnel to give it one last shot.
Port Adelaide (15-7) is just one win away from entering the finals series as one of the form sides of the competition following five victories from its past five matches, including a resounding win over Adelaide last week. The Power must first overcome what should be a desperate Dockers challenge to clinch the four, but could also benefit from knowing the margin required to beat the Giants to a pair of home finals.
Game shapers
Andrew Brayshaw could not have done much more to lead the Dockers to a crucial victory over the Giants that would have given their finals hopes a huge boost, as the co-vice-captain gathered an equal career-high 41 disposals. Brayshaw has enjoyed another consistent and classy season while averaging 29 disposals and a career-high 5.2 clearances and is sure to stretch the Power’s midfield, especially with a finals spot on the line.
Jason Horne-Francis has a game built for finals as an onball bull, averaging 22.1 disposals and 5.8 clearances while also being a major threat in the forward half. The former No.1 draft pick seems to rise to the occasion whether it be a Showdown against Adelaide or facing the ladder-leading Sydney, and can now be expected to have a huge say on the Power securing a top-two finish.
Early tip: Fremantle by 14 points
