THERE'S only nine games to go, but no shortage of possibilities heading into the final round of the 2024 home and away season.
Underlining the closeness of this season, four clubs head into the weekend facing the very real possibility of finishing as high as fourth and earning a double chance, or missing out on finals altogether.
Below is the best and worst possible finishing position of each club at the end of the season.
Percentage swings of 10 or more per cent - which can be the equivalent of a 200-point turnaround - have not been considered in these scenarios.
Current: First (64 pts, 126.3 per cent)
Best: First
Worst: First
The Swans are four points and 12.1 per cent clear of second spot, meaning only a history-making loss to Adelaide and a huge win from either Port Adelaide or GWS would see them lose top spot.
Current: Second (60 pts, 114.2 per cent)
Best: Second
Worst: Fourth
The Power are in a battle with GWS for a home final, but a loss to Fremantle could see them drop to fourth if the Giants win and Geelong thrash West Coast to make up 6.5 per cent.
Current: Third (60 pts, 111.7 per cent)
Best: Second
Worst: Fourth
Similar to the Power, the Giants could fall to fourth place if they lose to the Bulldogs on Sunday and the Cats win and make up 4 per cent.
Current: Fourth (56 pts, 107.7 per cent)
Best: Second
Worst: Eighth
If the Cats thrash the Eagles to make up 6.5 per cent on Port and both the Giants and Power lose, Geelong will earn a home qualifying final. However, a shock loss to West Coast would likely see the Cats drop out of the top four and they could fall as low as eighth if Brisbane, the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton all win.
Current: Fifth (54 points, 121.6 per cent)
Best: Fourth
Worst: Ninth
The Lions need the Cats to lose to the Eagles to secure a double chance, while they can't afford to slip up against the Bombers on Saturday night. A loss at the Gabba and wins to all of the Bulldogs, Hawks, Blues and Dockers would see the Lions - incredibly - miss the eight altogether, provided Freo make up 7.9 per cent in their win over the Power.
Current: Sixth (52 points, 123.8 per cent)
Best: Fourth
Worst: Ninth
A tough match-up with the Giants could make or break the Dogs' season. They'll know by Sunday if they can still make the top four, which would require a win in Ballarat after losses for both the Cats and Lions on Saturday. However, lose to the Giants and the Dogs would miss finals altogether if the Hawks, Blues and Dockers all win.
Current: Seventh (52 pts, 111.8 per cent)
Best: Fourth
Worst: Ninth
Win and they're in, lose and they could well be out. The Hawks could finish as high as fourth if they beat the Kangaroos and the Cats, Lions and Bulldogs all lose, while a loss by just one of that trio could secure a home elimination final for Sam Mitchell's side. However, a shock loss to the Roos and wins for the Blues and Dockers on Sunday would end the Hawks' season.
Current: Eighth (52 pts, 110.7 per cent)
Best: Fourth
Worst: Ninth
The Blues will be focused on simply beating the Saints and securing finals football, with a loss there and a Fremantle win to see them fall out of the eight. If the Blues beat the Saints and any of the Cats, Lions, Bulldogs or Hawks lose, it would improve Carlton's ladder position and they would even secure a double chance if all four of those teams lose.
Current: Ninth (50 pts, 113.7 per cent)
Best: Fifth
Worst: 10th
The equation for Fremantle is simple; hope one of the Bulldogs, Hawks or Blues lose and then beat Port Adelaide to jump back into the eight. A home elimination final is not completely out of the question, although they are a win and 7.9 per cent behind Brisbane, which is currently in fifth, so finishing that high is probably out of reach.
Current: 10th (48 pts, 100.1 per cent)
Best: Ninth
Worst: 12th
The finals appear to be out of reach for the Pies, who would need a 200-point turnaround to displace Carlton in the eight. A loss to Melbourne would see the Pies drop behind the Dees, while a Bombers win as well would leave the premiers in 12th.
Current: 11th (46 pts, 94.2 per cent)
Best: 10th
Worst: 12th
Finals are impossible for the Bombers but even if they lose to Brisbane on Saturday night, a win for Collingwood would mean the Dons stay in 11th.
Current: 12th (44 pts, 101.1 per cent)
Best: 10th
Worst: 14th
The Dees could drop to as low as 14th, below St Kilda and Gold Coast, if they lose to the Pies on Friday night, both the Saints and Suns win and a percentage gap of 3.6 is made up.
Current: 13th (40 pts, 99.3 per cent)
Best: 12th
Worst: 14th
The Saints' late-season surge could see them finish ahead of the Demons if the Pies win, the Saints beat the Blues and they make up a 0.8 per cent gap on Melbourne.
Current: 14th (40 pts, 97.5 per cent)
Best: 12th
Worst: 14th
The Suns can't finish any lower than their current spot of 14th. A fifth win on the trot against Richmond on Saturday and losses by the Saints and Demons (plus a 3.6 per cent gain on the Dees) would see them move as high as 12th.
Current: 15th (34 pts, 100.8 per cent)
Best: 15th
Worst: 15th
The Crows are locked in to 15th spot.
Current: 16th (20 pts, 70 per cent)
Best: 16th
Worst: 16th
The Eagles are locked in to 16th spot.
Current: 17th (12 pts, 66.1 per cent)
Best: 17th
Worst: 18th
The Roos could still finish with the wooden spoon if they lose to the Hawks in the Saturday twilight slot and the Tigers beat the Suns earlier in the day. The Roos would also need to give up 2.7 per centto the Tigers, which is a combined margin of around 75 points from the two results.
Current: 18th (8 pts, 63.4 per cent)
Best: 17th
Worst: 18th
See above
