PORT Adelaide capitalised on a softer than expected fixture on its way to a home qualifying final, while its crosstown rival was dealt a brutal run in 2024.
At the start of the season, we calculated the expected degree of difficulty of each club's fixture by tallying the 2023 finishing positions of the teams a club was due to play twice, with a lower number meaning a harder draw.
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Semi-finalists in 2023, the Power were expected to have one of the hardest runs this year. But the way the season has panned out means Port had the equal easiest double-ups in the competition, alongside West Coast.
Ken Hinkley's side played just one of this year's finalists twice in Carlton (eighth), while also meeting Melbourne (14th), St Kilda (12th), Adelaide (15th), Richmond (18th) and Fremantle (10th) twice.
That meant the Power's degree of difficulty for 2024 was 77, equal with the Eagles – last year's wooden spooners – as the easiest.
The Eagles didn't play any of this year's finalists twice, with their double-ups coming against the Dockers, Gold Coast (13th), Essendon (11th), the Demons, Saints and North Melbourne (17th).
Last year's losing grand finalist Brisbane also had a far easier fixture than expected.
The Lions only played one of this year's finalists twice in Greater Western Sydney (fourth) on their way to a fifth-place finish.
At the other end of the scale, the Crows faced a brutal run for a club that finished 10th last year.
Adelaide's degree of difficulty was 29, far harder than the 54 that was expected at the start of the season. Matthew Nicks' side played Sydney (first), Port (second), Geelong (third), Brisbane (fifth), Hawthorn (seventh) and Essendon (11th) twice and finished the season in 15th spot with a 8-1-14 record.
Interestingly, North Melbourne, coming off a 17th-place finish in 2023, also ended up with a tough run.
The Kangaroos won just three games in 2024, having faced four finalists – the Blues, Cats, Hawks and Bulldogs – twice this year.
* The expected degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2023 ladder positions of the teams a club plays twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.
* The actual degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2024 ladder positions of the teams a club played twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.
Expected degree of difficulty | Actual degree of difficulty | Difference | |
Adelaide | 54 | 29 | Harder by 25 |
Greater Western Sydney | 53 | 40 | Harder by 13 |
Collingwood | 46 | 46 | As expected |
Sydney | 49 | 47 | Harder by 2 |
Melbourne | 49 | 48 | Harder by 1 |
Western Bulldogs | 61 | 49 | Harder by 12 |
Richmond | 60 | 52 | Harder by 8 |
North Melbourne | 73 | 53 | Harder by 20 |
Carlton | 52 | 53 | Easier by 1 |
St Kilda | 61 | 55 | Harder by 6 |
Fremantle | 59 | 57 | Harder by 2 |
Geelong | 62 | 65 | Easier by 3 |
Essendon | 59 | 66 | Easier by 7 |
Hawthorn | 57 | 66 | Easier by 9 |
Brisbane | 43 | 67 | Easier by 24 |
Gold Coast | 65 | 71 | Easier by 6 |
West Coast | 70 | 77 | Easier by 7 |
Port Adelaide | 53 | 77 | Easier by 24 |