SUMMARY

Such has been the topsy-turvy nature of Brisbane and Carlton's seasons, it's easy to forget this is a repeat of last year's preliminary final.

The Lions recovered from a 2-5 start to fall just short of a top-four finish in 2024, while the Blues have lost six of their past eight, needing a Port Adelaide win over Fremantle in the final game of the home and away season just to sneak into the finals after being 11-4 and firmly entrenched in the top two.

Brisbane v Carlton at the Gabba, 7.30pm AEST 

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Brisbane: Conor McKenna
Carlton: Tom De Koning

LIONS v BLUES Follow it LIVE

There is an unpredictability about this clash, particularly given the Blues will be boosted by the returns of several key players.

Sam Docherty is back less than six months after rupturing his ACL against the Lions in Opening Round. Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay, Zac Williams and Adam Cerra also return, with Tom De Koning named Carlton's sub in his first game back from a foot fracture.

Where and when: Gabba, Saturday September 7, 7.30pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Opening Round: Carlton 13.8 (86) defeated Brisbane 12.13 (85) at the Gabba

In an incredible game at the Gabba in Opening Round, the Blues overturned a 46-point deficit to beat the Lions by one point. Harry McKay took a powerful mark and converted what proved to be the winning goal with 90 seconds remaining. McKay and Charlie Curnow combined for seven of Carlton's 13 goals, and the game was also the beginning of injury heartache for both clubs. Lion Keidean Coleman and Blue Sam Docherty suffered serious knee injuries. Docherty is set to make a remarkable return this weekend, which will mean his three most recent AFL games will have been against the Lions at the Gabba.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Brisbane
With just two losses since their round 12 bye, the Lions go into the finals as one of the competition's form teams. They are No.1 on the form ladder in that period. A key reason for their run has been their work in the contest. In this period, the Lions have won the contested possession count by 14.2 per game, which is also ranked No.1. Brisbane is also one of only two teams to average more than 100 points in this time.

Carlton
With concerns over Brisbane's conversion, could the Blues make the Lions pay by being clinical? Carlton has scored from 48.2 per cent of its inside 50s, ranked second, and scored a goal 26.7 per cent of the time, which is the best in the League. The Blues also have a shot at goal accuracy of 53.5 per cent, which ranks third. If Carlton can repeat this, it will go a long way towards it earning an upset victory. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Brisbane
The Lions' goalkicking has again become a concern and Joe Daniher could be the man to shape the elimination final. Brisbane is ranked 15th for shot at goal accuracy in 2024 and Daniher has been among their worst culprits. Of Lions to have had more than 30 shots at goal this season, only three – Daniher (44.6 per cent), Kai Lohmann (45.8) and Charlie Cameron (46.8) – have a shot at goal accuracy percentage worse than 50 per cent. Daniher has enjoyed a fine season, kicking 50 goals, but Brisbane has kicked 30.49 in its past three games, and the 8.16 it managed against Greater Western Sydney in round 22 probably cost it a top-four spot. The Lions can't afford to let wayward goalkicking be the reason they let a shot at a flag slip away and Daniher could be the man to lead the way.

Carlton
If the Blues are to upset the Lions and make a deep run this September, they will need a return to form from gun midfielder Sam Walsh. Last year's Gary Ayres Award winner as the best finals player, Walsh has dropped off after making a fine return from injury. Comparison his first 11 games of the year to his past eight, Walsh has dropped off for disposals (30.4 per game to 25.8), clearances (5.6 to 4.3), tackles (7.2 to 6.4), contested possessions (11.8 to 10.4) and uncontested possessions (17.6 to 16). Carlton needs the midfielder back to his best to support his captain, Patrick Cripps.

PREDICTION

While there is plenty of unpredictability about the Blues given they are set to regain several players, the Lions deserve favouritism given the way the second half of 2024 has panned out for both teams. Carlton has won just two of its past eight games and those victories came against bottom-three sides North Melbourne and West Coast. Brisbane's major issue has been its goalkicking, but the Lions have been one of the form sides of the competition to finish the season and should be good enough to progress. Brisbane by 15 points.