Ed Richards kicks the ball during the Western Bulldogs' elimination final against Hawthorn on September 6, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

SUMMARY

Hats off to you if you had picked this as a finals match-up at the start of the season.

After starting the year 0-5, Sam Mitchell's men have taken the competition by storm, winning 14 of 18 games to claim a surprise berth in September for the first time since 2018. The Dogs had plenty of issues of their own earlier in the season but are humming at the right time of year.

These teams have not met in a final since the Dogs' golden run in 2016, though the Hawks have had the edge in their past two meetings by a combined 10 points.

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn at the MCG, 7.40pm AEST

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Western Bulldogs: Jack Macrae
Hawthorn: Luke Breust

After the most even season in recent memory, both teams could be in line for a shot at the premiership from outside the top four, with the winner here to meet the loser of the Port Adelaide-Geelong match.

James Harmes has been included for the Western Bulldogs at the expense of Arthur Jones, while Josh Ward is back for Hawthorn with Cam Mackenzie (hamstring) to miss.

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 6, 7.40pm AEST

04:26

Match Previews, FW1: Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

Sportsbet's Nathan Brown and Kane Cornes preview the elimination final between the Bulldogs and the Hawks at the MCG

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 8: Hawthorn 14.14 (98) defeated Western Bulldogs 14.7 (91) at Marvel Stadium

The Bulldogs got off to a flyer with the first three goals before the Hawks steadied, with captain James Sicily kicking the winning goal after suffering a dislocated shoulder early in the match. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan had a chance to level the scores late but his shot hit the behind post on the full, allowing the Hawks to hang on and notch up just their second win of the season. It also left the Dogs with a 3-5 record and many questioning their credentials. In a memorable clash, Calsher Dear kicked two goals on debut for the Hawks and Tom Liberatore suffered another worrying collapse after a head knock, similar to one from a few rounds earlier.

ALL THE HIGHLIGHTS

  • 00:59

    Ridiculously rapid Vandermeer driller comes within 15 seconds

    Laitham Vandermeer nails the running finish as the Western Bulldogs explode from the opening bounce

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  • 00:30

    Brilliant Bont catches fire with incredible launch

    Marcus Bontempelli loads up from beyond 50 and drills a trademark running missile

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  • 00:33

    Emotions spill over with Dear's special maiden moment

    Calsher Dear, the son of late Hawks great Paul Dear, kicks his first career goal and his teammates flock to him

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  • 00:45

    Newcombe off a step is off the charts as Hawks run hot

    Jai Newcombe sets himself and bangs through a huge major for Hawthorn

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  • 00:32

    Is Libba in trouble for this tackle?

    Tom Liberatore is penalised for a dumping tackle on Will Day in the third term

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  • 00:51

    Macdonald and Weddle's dazzling double gets Marvel roaring

    Connor Macdonald and Josh Weddle drill back-to-back bending rippers to extend the margin

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  • 00:34

    Young Hawks guns provide the spark with slick pair

    Dylan Moore drills his first from the angle before Connor Macdonald makes the Bulldogs pay

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  • 03:47

    Last two mins: Hawks handle heat to hold out Dogs

    The thrilling final moments between Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn in round eight

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  • 06:51

    Highlights: Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

    The Bulldogs and Hawks clash in round eight

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  • 12:42

    Full post-match, R8: Bulldogs

    Watch Western Bulldogs’s press conference after round eight’s match against Hawthorn

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  • 10:48

    Full post-match, R8: Hawks

    Watch Hawthorn’s press conference after round eight’s match against Western Bulldogs

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  • 14:54

    Mini-Match: Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

    Extended highlights of the Bulldogs and Hawks clash in round eight

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THE STATS THAT MATTER

Western Bulldogs
The Dogs are dangerous all over the ground. They are the competition's stingiest defence, conceding 75.5 points per game over the season. That might come in handy against a potent Hawks outfit. Luke Beveridge's side is also No.1 for points from F50 stoppages (11.3 per game) and points from F50 turnovers (11.7), as well as in moving the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50. It's in the ruck where the Dogs have struggled this season, ranked second-last for both hitouts and hitouts to advantage.

Hawthorn
If it wasn't obvious just by watching them, Hawthorn's ability to generate scores from anywhere is their biggest strength. Since round eight, the Hawks have averaged 101 points per game, which jumps to 125.3 points per game since round 19, though that number is inflated by the massive win over North Melbourne in the final round. They have won groundball differential by 8.9 per game – No.1 in the League – and lost that stat just three times all season. On the downside, their pressure rating is the second-lowest of the top eight sides, and they are ranked 17th in tackles.

02:53

Finals Focus: How potent Bulldogs can stop ‘electric’ Hawks

Alastair Clarkson, Matthew Lloyd and Sarah Olle break down the elimination final between the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Western Bulldogs
Marcus Bontempelli is the biggest of the big dogs, but Adam Treloar has become an essential part of Luke Beveridge's premiership plans. The 31-year-old has been battling a nagging calf complaint since the win over Greater Western Sydney in the final round of the home and away season and his fitness will be crucial against a tireless Hawthorn outfit. Fresh off a maiden All-Australian blazer, Treloar is averaging 31.7 disposals and 5.8 clearances a game.

Adam Treloar ahead of Friday night's elimination final between Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. Picture: Getty Images

Hawthorn
The entire backline. Dogs talls Sam Darcy (208cm), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (197cm) and Aaron Naughton (196cm) pose a serious threat for any side, let alone an undersized Hawthorn defence. The trio have kicked 40 goals between them over the past seven weeks. Throw in the unpredictable Cody Weightman and the Dogs present all sorts of challenges. To be fair, Sam Frost (194cm), James Sicily (188cm) and Jack Scrimshaw (194cm) have been immense all season, but this will take a full team effort to suppress the opposition's greatest asset.

James Sicily and Sam Frost compete with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Charlie Clarke during the R8 match between Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on May 5, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

PREDICTION

It's a shame that one of these teams will bow out of the finals race, with both sides bringing hot form into September. Can the 'Hollywood Hawks' replicate their brash, bold play on the primetime stage on Friday night, or will the experienced Dogs put the bite on their younger opponents? A lot will depend on the weather, and with showers predicted during the game, this one could turn into a midfield battle. Bulldogs by 16 points.