IF HISTORY is a reliable guide, Port Adelaide's qualifying final belting shouldn't prevent it from stopping the Hawthorn juggernaut on Friday night, while it should give Geelong optimism about the possibilities of yet another premiership.  

The Cats handed the Power an 84-point drubbing at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night, continuing Port's miserable finals record in recent years.

But there is some good news for Port, despite a sixth defeat in its past eight finals, and even better news for Geelong.

The Power became the 12th team since the current finals system was introduced in 2000 to lose a qualifying final by 50 or more points, and the first since 2017.

Surprisingly given the bruising nature of such a defeat, the previous 11 have all responded quickly to win their semi-final the following week.

Ken Hinkley's under-fire side faces a huge challenge on Friday, however, with in-form Hawks likely to head to Adelaide Oval as favourites after yet another impressive performance in the opening week of the finals.

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As for the Cats, who are two wins away from a fifth flag since 2007, history suggests they will make at least the Grand Final.

Of the 11 teams since 2000 to win a qualifying final by 50-plus points, all 11 have reached the Grand Final and eight have won the flag.

Of the three who didn't go all the way, two of them (Geelong in 2008 and Brisbane in 2004) lost the season decider to a team that had also won their qualifying final by more than 50 points.

While there may be some cautious optimism in Adelaide this week, the Power are also facing some unwanted history.

Ollies Wines looks dejected after Port Adelaide's qualifying final loss to Geelong on September 5, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

Last year, Melbourne became the first team since the current finals system was introduced in 2000 to suffer a straight-sets finals exit in consecutive years. The Power will join the Demons if they lose on Friday night.

Since 2014, 10 teams in 10 seasons have exited in straight sets after just two clubs suffered that fate in the 14 seasons beforehand.

The introduction of the pre-finals bye may have been a contributing factor; since it came in in 2016, seven teams in eight seasons have lost two straight finals after finishing in the top four compared to five teams in the 16 seasons before the bye was introduced.

While history suggests Port should bounce back, it's the Cats who are on track for the ultimate prize.

Straight-sets exits

(Teams to lose a qualifying and semi-final in the same season since 2000)

2001: Port Adelaide (3rd)
2007: West Coast (3rd)
2014: Fremantle (4th)
2014: Geelong (3rd)
2015: Sydney (4th)
2016: Hawthorn (3rd)
2018: Hawthorn (4th)
2019: Brisbane (2nd)
2021: Brisbane (4th)
2022: Melbourne (2nd)
2023: Port Adelaide (3rd)
2023: Melbourne (4th)

Teams to lose a qualifying final by 50-plus points since 2000

Year

Loser

Opponent

Margin

Semi-final result

2024

Port Adelaide

Geelong

84 points

TBC

2017

Geelong

Richmond

51 points

Beat Syd by 59 points

2013

Sydney

Hawthorn

54 points

Beat Carl by 24 points

2010

Western Bulldogs

Collingwood

62 points

Beat Syd by five points

2008

Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn

51 points

Beat Syd by 37 points

2008

St Kilda

Geelong

58 points

Beat Coll by 34 points

2007

North Melbourne

Geelong

106 points

Beat Haw by 33 points

2004

St Kilda

Brisbane

80 points

Beat Syd by 51 points

2004

Geelong

Port Adelaide

55 points

Beat Ess by 10 points

2002

Adelaide

Brisbane

71 points

Beat Melb by 12 points

2001

Richmond

Essendon

70 points

Beat Carl by 11 points

2000

North Melbourne

Essendon

125 points

Beat Haw by 10 points


Teams to win a qualifying final by 50-plus points since 2000      

Year

Team

Finished the season as…

2024

Geelong

TBC

2017

Richmond

Premier

2013

Hawthorn

Premier

2010

Collingwood

Premier

2008

Hawthorn

Premier

2008

Geelong

Grand finalist

2007

Geelong

Premier

2004

Brisbane

Grand finalist

2004

Port Adelaide

Premier

2002

Brisbane

Premier

2001

Essendon

Grand finalist

2000

Essendon

Premier