CARLTON was meant to be going all in when it made six changes for Saturday night's elimination final, but the decision to pull back at the last moment and select Tom De Koning as the substitute ultimately cost them a winning hand.
The Blues were embarrassed in the first half of Saturday night's elimination final, conceding the first nine goals of the game and falling 60-points behind before they had even registered a score.
LIONS v BLUES Full match coverage and stats
It shaped as the type of September loss that could scar a group, and De Koning was sitting on the bench waiting for his chance to make an impact until he was told to warm up early in the second quarter.
Injected into the game 11 minutes in, the 25-year-old was the reason Carlton was able to launch a mini-comeback either side of half-time, with the Blues kicking five unanswered goals and winning the second half by 20 points.
But a nightmare first quarter meant Michael Voss's plan A of replacing Marc Pittonet late in the game for De Koning had to be thrown out the window and midfielder Matt Kennedy was instead benched for the big man 11 minutes into the second quarter.
Through a quarter-and-a-half on the ground, De Koning had 10 influential possessions (seven contested) and was an immediately more effective and attacking option in the ruck. He had as many clearances as any teammate at the last change and was a crucial aerial presence down the line.
Every aspect of the Blues' selection, including De Koning as the substitute and Kennedy as the unfortunate player who made way, will now be dissected at length given the Blues' season has come to a close after one final.
Sam Docherty's return six months after an ACL injury was an incredible individual feat, and his selection would have been lauded if it had paid off. He finished with 16 disposals and a goal, but was not a major factor in the match.
The club's six changes also highlighted what was missing from the team after run-with player Alex Cincotta was omitted to make way, allowing Lions half-back Dayne Zorko to dominate the first half and demoralise the Blues.
The game was ultimately won in the first 40 minutes as Zorko ran riot. The veteran had 19 disposals in the first half and cut through the Blues to set up entry after entry from his team's defensive half.
Halfway through the second quarter, he launched the play that typified the first half when he powered away from George Hewett and kicked long to Kai Lohmann on the wing. Lohmann then found impressive young forward Logan Morris inside 50, who placed the ball for Cam Rayner to take the mark of the match on top of Cerra.
Rayner's goal from the resulting set shot was the hammer blow, leaving the Blues' 53 points down halfway through the second quarter and giving the home team a buffer that would see them through to a semi-final against Greater Western Sydney.
The Blues were able to slow Zorko's influence in the second half with a more accountable approach, but they'll ask themselves what difference Cincotta might have made if they put time into the Lions' All-Australian from the first bounce.
Ultimately, the Blues had to try something. Their 2-6 run to close the home-and-away season meant rolling into September in the same shape would have delivered the same results. The Blues were bold and rolled the dice. They should have gone all in when it came to De Koning.
