SUMMARY

Greater Western Sydney could very well have spent this week preparing for a preliminary final, but they'll instead have to face a Brisbane side with all the firepower required to go deep into September.

The Giants have beaten the Lions twice this year and will have homeground advantage on their side, with Brisbane having not played GWS at the Sydney Showgrounds venue in more than four years.

It's hard to read too much into the Lions' belting of an undercooked Carlton side last week, while how the Giants recover – both physically and mentally – from their bruising loss to Sydney will be important.

Brisbane's accuracy in front of goal, or lack thereof, has been well documented and looms as another major factor in determining who will win through to face Geelong in a preliminary final.

Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane at Engie Stadium, 7.30pm AEST  

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Greater Western Sydney: Xavier O’Halloran
Brisbane: Conor McKenna

GIANTS v LIONS Follow it LIVE

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 7: Greater Western Sydney 17.11 (113) beat Brisbane 8.11 (59) at Manuka Oval

The Orange Tsunami returned in a massive way on Anzac Day as the Giants thrashed the hapless Lions by 54 points in Canberra, continuing Brisbane's horror start to the season. The Lions were exposed by a nine-goal burst that started just before half-time, with Tom Green (37 disposals and seven clearances) leading the way and first-gamer Darcy Jones lighting things up with two goals in an exhilarating debut.

Round 22: Brisbane 8.16 (64) lost to Greater Western Sydney 13.4 (82) at the Gabba

Three-and-a-half months later, it looked like the Giants would become just the latest victim in Brisbane's stunning mid-season resurgence, with the Lions storming to a 31-1 lead at quarter-time. Only inaccurate kicking kept the Giants in the game and it proved to be costly, with GWS kicking 13 of the last 17 goals of the game – including the last six in a row – to secure a famous comeback win. Again, Green led the way in midfield along with James Peatling and Finn Callaghan, while young forwards Jones (two goals) and Aaron Cadman (three) stood up in the front half alongside Jesse Hogan (three).

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Greater Western Sydney
The Giants ramped up the heat against the Swans last week, with their pressure factor of 204 their second-best return of the season. They also won the tackle count 83-69 and against a Lions side that this year has lost the tackle count by 7.7 per game on average – the worst record in the competition – it could be a decisive factor. Leading the way at the coalface last week was Tom Green, who won a career-high 14 first possessions against the Swans.

Brisbane
The tale of Brisbane's goalkicking woes has already been well told, but it's impossible to ignore heading into this weekend's game. In their past four games, the Lions have recorded a shot at goal accuracy of 37.3 per cent, the worst in the competition. The first of those four games came against the Giants at the Gabba in round 22, when their shot on goal accuracy was just 28.6 per cent.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Greater Western Sydney
Having been blanketed by Dane Rampe last Saturday for the third time this season, the last player Toby Greene would want to square up against this week is Brandon Starcevich. The Giants skipper had just four disposals against Brisbane a month ago, the lowest return of his 238-game career, as the Lions defender shoved, blocked and forced Greene out of the game while picking up 13 disposals and five marks himself. Greene has kicked goals on Starcevich before, including a bag of four in 2022, and he'll need to get somewhere back to that form on Saturday night. Jesse Hogan will continue to do his thing up forward with support from the likes of Aaron Cadman, but the Giants are a different beast if Toby is at his best.

Brisbane
The Giants can destroy the opposition if their big-bodied midfielders get on top at the contest, as Sydney learned for the first three quarters last week, so the heat will be on Josh Dunkley to stop GWS's quick ball movement from in tight. Dunkley looms as the most likely match-up for Giants star Tom Green, who was extraordinary in getting 10 clearances and 32 disposals against the Swans having also racked up huge numbers in two games against the Lions this season. James Peatling, Finn Callaghan and Josh Kelly have also done damage against Brisbane's midfield this year. With Lachie Neale likely to again be closely monitored by Toby Bedford for most of the night, Dunkley and his other midfielders will need to step up.

PREDICTION

It's not often a team's stocks rise after a loss, but GWS's premiership credentials were enhanced by its impressive showing against Sydney last week. There's undoubtedly still work to be done, and the Lions have the firepower to expose them if they again fail to play the full four quarters on Saturday night. But unless Brisbane's woes in front of goal can be reversed this week, the Giants should be harder and tougher for longer. Giants by 19 points