ONE BYE round down and two to go. Strategically we should now be looking at trade targets from the pool of stars who have completed the round eight bye with the aim of fielding a minimum of 18 players over the next two weeks.
ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK
With scores of 111, 94 and 131 early in the season, Bomber Jackson Merrett [FWD, $369,009] looked to be a great money maker and stepping stone to a premium upgrade prior to his bye round.
Unfortunately, he will need to be traded a week earlier than that after suffering a $35,367 price drop this week on the back of his second consecutive sub-40 point game. Merrett has increased $96,309 overall on the season but with a break-even of 119, it is time to take the cash and run a week out from his bye as he is set to drop much further in price.
HOT PIE
If you are on the market for a midfield premium, my pick of the bunch this week is Scott Pendlebury [MID, $582,762]. Pendles looks great value at $28k less than his 2014 starting price, despite his impressive average of 115 points per game. He is very reliable, recording a low score of 91 for the year and the ability to go big with three scores over 120 including a massive 152.
Although he has averaged just 106 over the last five rounds, Pendles is about to heat up with a favourable draw against the Crows, Eagles, Saints and Demons where he has recorded scores of 153, 129, 121 and 117 in his most recent encounters. He looms as a perfect vice-captain option for this week’s rolling lockout.
TEX IS BACK
With a change in Fantasy rules this year where players increase in price after their first game, it puts players like Taylor Walker [FWD, $282,900] in the mix straight up, despite missing the past 12 months of footy. There are few downgrade options in the forward line, especially players who have already completed the bye, which is another tick for the big fella.
Back in 2012, Walker showed he has the potential to be a forward premium with an average of 87, and although we can’t expect him to return in that sort of form, he has a more than achievable break-even of just 52 this week which should ensure a few weeks of price rises.
He kicked a handy four goals in the SANFL last week and the Crows will be working overtime to get the ball in his hands early against Collingwood on Thursday night.
FORGOTTEN MAN
After a lot of pre season hype, Brandon Ellis [MID, $431,454] turned off a lot of prospective coaches with indifferent form in the NAB Challenge. His first four matches of the home and away season reflected the pre-season with three scores below 70.
In the last three weeks, Eliis has looked a lot more like the player that we expected to see from the start. He has scored 96, 125 and 94 to give him a three-game average of 105 and a break-even of just 51. Ellis has great history against his next three opponents in the Demons, Giants and Bombers and he could prove a coaching masterstroke given his price and the fact that just 1.77 per cent of Fantasy players own him.
CLASSY CAT
After Jimmy Bartel [DEF/MID, $517,704] lowered his average for five consecutive years leading up to 2014, many coaches chose to stay away to avoid what looked like an inevitable price drop. 26.44 per cent of Fantasy coaches have been smart enough to back in Jimmy and they are being rewarded with his best output since 2010, with a season average of 102. With scores of 117, 114, 99 and 118 in his last four games, Bartel has to be a backline priority. He has a break-even of 81, so he looks set to rise this week, given he has only dropped under this score once this year.
WHAT ARE THE TRADERS UP TO THIS WEEK?
Warnie
In: Taylor Walker, Scott Pendlebury
Out: Paul Chapman, Jared Polec
Paul Chapman, Jared Polec, out
Tex Walker, Scott Pendlebury, in
Warnie is looking to field 18 players this week through the removal of the suspended Chapman, while also giving his midfield a significant boost with the inclusion of Pendles.
Calvin
In: Jamie Elliott, Brandon Ellis
Out: Paul Chapman, Jared Polec
Calvin has been forced to trade out Chapman in order to maintain a balance throughout the byes, while he is also taking advantage of Polec’s outstanding price rise throughout the season.
Roy
In: Taylor Walker, Scott Pendlebury
Out: Paul Chapman, Jackson Merrett
The suspension of Chappy and the form of Merrett have forced my hand this week. I am slightly concerned about grabbing Walker after such a long lay-off. However I think he is capable of averaging at least 70 over the first month which would be good value. I think Pendles is set for a huge month and I have been eyeing him off for a few weeks.
