IT'S THE trade that could go down to the dying minutes of the 2024 Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period.

Get the full breakdown on the Bailey Smith situation, the stand-off between Geelong and the Western Bulldogs, and what could happen if Smith doesn't get traded by Wednesday night.

TRADE HUB All the latest player movement news

What's the state of play?

Bailey Smith, the No.7 pick in the 2018 AFL Draft, requested a trade to Geelong earlier this month after six seasons at the Western Bulldogs.

The Cats and Bulldogs have been in discussions about what a fair trade could be, with the Cats offering up their first-round draft pick - pick No.17 - in exchange for the 23-year-old. However, the Bulldogs want more than that in a deal. As of Wednesday morning, the two clubs are at somewhat of a stand-off.

How long do they have to get a deal done?

Less than 48 hours, with the trade period deadline looming at 7.30pm AEDT on Wednesday night. Trades for players cannot be struck outside the official trade window, so the clock is ticking.

What happens if a trade cannot be agreed to?

Smith's current contract at the Bulldogs expires on October 31, meaning he would no longer have any ties to the Dogs as of November 1. It also means the Bulldogs would not get any compensation for losing Smith to another club.

This is where the Cats have an advantage in the current negotiations. If they hold their ground and a deal is not agreed to before Wednesday night, they can still secure Smith via the draft next month. The only way for the Bulldogs to get anything in return for Smith is to complete a trade. If they can't, they will get nothing.

In order to get his wish of getting to the Cats, Smith's next option would be to nominate for the Telstra AFL National Draft, which will be held on November 20-21, or the Telstra AFL Pre-Season Draft on November 22.

While the national draft is largely where the best 17 and 18-year-old talents in the country are offered up to all 18 clubs, there is no age limit on who can nominate. As an uncontracted player, Smith would be eligible to nominate for the draft, but he would not be able to mandate that Geelong is the only club who can draft him.

What would stop another club picking Smith at the draft?

Technically nothing, which is the risk Geelong would be taking if they can't get a deal done with the Bulldogs by Wednesday night.

Clubs are allocated picks in the draft based on their ladder position from that season. Richmond – which finished at the bottom of the ladder this year – currently has pick No.1 in the national draft, while Geelong's first pick isn't until pick 17.

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER All the picks as they stand

As it stands, 10 clubs have at least one pick before Geelong's pick 17 in the national draft; Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast, Adelaide, Melbourne, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Fremantle, Carlton and Greater Western Sydney.

This list of 10 is likely to change due to pick swaps in the final days of the trade period, but any of these clubs could theoretically select Smith with their pick on draft night.

However, it's a little more complicated than that.

So why would rival clubs not draft him?

The first reason is the salary cap. Smith is a highly talented player and while the details of Geelong's contract offer are not public, it is a lucrative deal.

As a previously listed player, Smith can set the financial terms of his contract when he nominates for the draft, meaning he could demand a salary and tenure that he knows Geelong could satisfy, but other clubs may not be able to.

Clubs take years to plan with their salary cap and it would take a significant change of strategy to be able to squeeze Smith's sizeable contract under the cap with just a few weeks' notice.

Secondly, clubs with high draft picks have spent years scouring the best young talent in the country ahead of the national draft. Similar to the salary cap consideration, opting to draft Smith instead of a young player would represent a significant change of list management strategy.

But the main reason a club would be unlikely to draft Smith against his will would be the potential fallout of doing so.

Using up a large chunk of your salary cap on a player who does not want to be at your club makes little sense. And even if Smith was forced to play for a club other than Geelong in 2025, he would likely request a trade to the Cats again at the end of next year.

The main obstacle is the fact the trade market is built on each club's relationships with its 17 rivals, as well as the agents who represent the players. Drafting Smith against his will could be a black mark of sorts against a club's name and could make it more difficult for that club to negotiate future deals with Geelong and Smith's agent, Paul Connors.

Would Smith choose the national draft or the pre-season draft?

Should a trade not be struck, this is a call the Cats would have to make in conjunction with Smith and his management. The two parties could opt to bypass the national draft and instead nominate only for the pre-season draft (PSD), which will be held the day after the national draft is completed.

The PSD is list mechanism that is rarely used by clubs in the modern trade and draft landscape, with any players who are not traded or picked up in the national draft normally slipping back to state league level or picked up as a delisted free agent over summer. It's extremely uncommon for a player of Smith's calibre to nominate for the PSD.

Choosing the PSD could be advantageous to the Cats as instead of using their pick 17 at the national draft to get Smith, they could instead use it to draft a talented young player and then get Smith in the PSD.

But, as is the case with the national draft, there is a risk a rival club could pick up Smith in the PSD before Geelong's first pick, which is currently pick No.15. There are 14 clubs with a pick before Geelong in the PSD compared to 10 - as it stands - in the national draft.

However, opting for the national draft could give some clubs two bites at Smith before Geelong has a chance to use its pick 17. Richmond (pick 1 and possibly pick 6), Melbourne (picks 5 and 9), St Kilda (picks 7 and 8) and Greater Western Sydney (picks 15 and 16) could all have two picks on draft night before Geelong has one, meaning they could pick up a talented youngster and then grab Smith before the Cats have even had a chance.

In 2019, Jack Martin nominated for the PSD instead of the national draft after Gold Coast and Carlton could not agree on a trade to get him to the Blues.

The Blues had traded away their first-round pick in the national draft that year, meaning their first pick was pick No.17. But their first pick in the pre-season draft was No.3, which meant only two clubs had the option of drafting Martin before the Blues had their pick.

This strategy allowed the Blues to pick up three players in the national draft – Brodie Kemp at Pick 17, Sam Philp at 20 and Sam Ramsay at 47 – and then Martin in the pre-season draft.

Does this situation happen often?

The most famous instance of a club walking a player to the national draft was when Luke Ball landed at Collingwood at the end of 2009.

Ball had requested a trade from St Kilda, but the Saints rebuffed Collingwood's offer of pick 25 in return. With a deal unable to be agreed to during the trade period, Ball then nominated for the national draft and the Magpies picked him up with their pick No.30 after an agonising wait as 29 picks were completed beforehand, all carrying the risk a club would call out Ball's name.

The Saints, having turned down pick 25 in the trade period, ended up with nothing.

Interestingly, the man who orchestrated the move was Ball's manager Paul Connors, who now manages Bailey Smith.

Could other players be walked to the draft this year?

The main difference here is Smith is uncontracted, with his current deal at the Bulldogs expiring at the end of October.

Other big names seeking a trade this year, like Dan Houston and Shai Bolton, are contracted to their current clubs on long-term deals. If a trade is not secured for them before the deadline, they would simply return to their current club.

Will Smith actually end up in the draft?

At this stage, it's impossible to say for sure. It would seemingly be in the best interests of the Bulldogs to strike a trade with the Cats and get something in return for losing Smith instead of ending up with nothing.

While the Cats have the draft as a safety net, there are no guarantees a rival club would not swoop in and take Smith before the Cats' pick on draft night. So walking Smith to the draft is not a risk-free strategy.

Geelong also must consider the mental strain on Smith, who would face another six weeks of uncertainty before the draft with his career in the balance.

It will come down to who blinks first – the Cats or the Dogs.