IT MAY not yet present as a trend, but for a reigning AFL premier it is emerging as a worrying watch that three of the past four flag winners have failed to make finals the following season.
Even without that warning siren blaring in the background, the 2024 premiers Brisbane Lions were vulnerable to a ladder crash due to the retirement of gun key forward Joe Daniher.
The Lions couldn’t find a big-name replacement for Daniher in the recent trade period, but rival clubs believe they already have sorted out that problem for 2026, with an established goalkicker already on the trade hook.
That won’t immediately assist their cause but in dealing with desperately sought status as premiers, the Lions have stayed true to an ideology which began when Chris Fagan was identified as the man to lead the club out of disrepair.
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While there are many layers to their doctrine, at its core is a pledge to deal only with matters which are immediately controllable.
Fagan’s tenure was one of those issues. And since the September success, coach and club have verbally agreed to add the 2026 season to his deal.
Another was ensuring general manager football Danny Daly rejected the myriad offers he was receiving from rival clubs, including proposals from the biggest businesses in the competition, Collingwood and West Coast. Another tick, with Daly and the Lions also verbally reaching new terms since September.
CEO Greg Swann, who oversaw the Fagan appointment in 2016 and like Daly has had numerous opportunities to head to other clubs in recent seasons, will be staying at least as long as Fagan.
Swann has been one of the most impactful club administrators this century (he was at Collingwood 2000-06 and Carlton 2007-14 before heading to the Lions in 2015), but it took even him 25 years to be involved in a winning AFL Grand Final, having been at Collingwood for two GF losses in 2002 and 2003, and Brisbane’s in 2023.
So stability, to many the quality which most distinguishes the good teams from the bad, is locked in at Brisbane as it enters life as the AFL reigning premier, and there is nice symmetry to the soon-to-be-announced Fagan arrangement as the 2026 season will be his tenth.
What happens after that will be in his full control. The Tasmania Devils, who are scheduled for AFL entry in 2028, desperately want him to be part of official operations, potentially as early as 2027.
Fagan, 63, is not seriously considering options beyond 2026 right now. His pure focus is on the Lions. And family considerations will dictate as strongly as any other factor as to whether he stays in Brisbane, returns to live in Melbourne or heads back his home state of Tasmania.
The Brisbane at which Fagan arrived in late 2016 was one of the biggest messes the AFL had seen. For seven consecutive seasons, there had been ladder finishes no higher than 12th.
Fagan’s first two years saw a wooden spoon added to the mix, then a 15th-placed finish.
Then six consecutive seasons of finals kicked in. But even within the timelines of that envious statistic, there were questions and doubts. At one stage, Fagan’s finals record was 1-5. Even after he lost the 2023 Grand Final by four points, some in the football industry threw shade at him.
Collingwood missed finals in 2024, Geelong missed in 2023 and Richmond missed in 2021, all after winning a Grand Final.
There’s no Daniher at the Lions for 2025, so they’re exposed already. But there will be Levi Ashcroft. As well as four players returning from knee reconstructions - Keidean Coleman, Linc McCarthy, Darcy Gardiner and Tom Doedee.
Difficult to see the Lions being on holidays in September next year.