THE BARGAIN price Brisbane paid to land gun draft pair Levi Ashcroft and Sam Marshall will look like even better value next year when the AFL’s major changes to the father-son and Academy bidding come into force.
Reigning premier Brisbane landed father-son prospect Ashcroft (pick No.5) and Academy gun Marshall (No.25) in the opening round.
But changes to the Draft Value Index (DVI) for 2025 and beyond, which were announced earlier this year, are set to make the task of matching bids on father-son and Academy prospects far more difficult in the future.
After the Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period and pick swaps window, the Lions had accrued picks 27, 34, 42, 43, 49 and 58 as they prepared to match the bids on Ashcroft and Marshall.
Further pick swaps on the opening night of the draft saw them settle with 10 selections – picks 40, 42, 43, 46, 48, 49, 53, 54, 56 and 73.
The picks gave the Lions plenty of points to match bids on Ashcroft and Marshall, and when the former was allowed to reach pick five in the draft, the Lions were never in danger of missing out or even going into a points deficit.
After Ashcroft was overlooked by Richmond, North Melbourne, Carlton and Adelaide, Brisbane matched Melbourne's bid at pick No.5 using picks 40, 42, 43 and 46.
The Lions needed to match the bid at No.5 with 1502.4 points (the value of pick No.5 is 1878 points, minus the 20 per cent discount granted in the first round).
With their four picks in the 40s now gone, Brisbane's remaining selections came in and increased in points value, meaning they needed just picks 43 and 44 (originally picks 48 and 49) to match Sydney's bid on Marshall, which came at pick 25.
But changes to the Draft Value Index in 2025 are set to make moves like these much more difficult.
As reported by AFL.com.au earlier this year, around 10,000 points have been shaved off the DVI in the new system, including taking away points for any pick after No.54. Under the system in use in this year, points were attached to picks through to No.73.
So while Brisbane accrued a total of 1533 points by using picks 40 (429 points), 42 (395), 43 (378) and 46 (331) to match a bid on Ashcroft at pick five this year, those four picks in 2025 will be worth just 758 points.
For Marshall, the Lions accrued 740 points – 135 more than they needed to match a bid – by using picks 43 (378) and 44 (362). Next year, those two picks will be worth just 351 points.
The rule change means clubs won't be able to simply stockpile later selections to match bids on father-son and Academy prospects, like the Lions were able to do this year.
As part of the changes, the 20 per cent discount will also be reduced to 10 per cent.
If the new DVI was in play in 2025, the Lions would have needed 1616 points to match a bid on Ashcroft at pick No.5 (1795 points minus a 10 per cent discount). To use four picks to match that bid, it would have required the Lions to give up picks 29, 30, 34 and 35, which are much more valuable picks than the 40, 42, 43 and 46 they gave up this year.
For Marshall, the Lions would next year have needed 531 points to match the bid at pick 25 (590 points minus the 10 per cent discount). Two picks of that value next year would be picks 38 and 39, compared to picks 43 and 44 this year.
Daniel Annable (Brisbane Academy), Max King (Sydney Academy) and Zeke Uwland (Gold Coast Academy) are in next year's draft class and AFL.com.au's Cal Twomey has named the trio among the prospects to watch in 2025.
While the Swans' draft hand for next year is unchanged, the Lions and Suns have already added to theirs, with Brisbane holding its first-round pick, three third-round picks and two fourth-round picks for 2025, while Gold Coast has three first-round picks, its second-round pick and two fourth-rounders.
How Brisbane matched bid for Ashcroft in 2024
Bid: Pick No.5, value 1878 points, 1502 points after 20 per cent discount
Used: Picks 40, 42, 43 and 46
How a club could match a similar bid in 2025
Bid: Pick No.5, value 1795 points, 1616 points after 10 per cent discount
Would need: Picks 29, 30, 34 and 35
How Brisbane matched bids for Ashcroft and Marshall in 2024
Bids: Picks No.5 and 25, value 2634 points, 2107 points after 20 per cent discount
Used: Picks 40, 42, 43, 43, 44 and 46
How a club could match similar bids in 2025
Bids: Picks No.5 and 25, value 2385 points, 2147 points after 10 per cent discount
Would need: Picks 29, 30, 34, 35, 38 and 39