FOOTY tipping exists to make fools of us all.
The common expectation was Geelong – fresh off a 78-point win – would comfortably account for a hobbled St Kilda, who lost heavily by 63, off travel and a six-day break.
Yes, the Cats were without last week's match-winner Bailey Smith, a late withdrawal with a calf complaint.
SAINTS v CATS Full match coverage and stats
And yes, champion defender Tom Stewart was subbed out halfway through the second quarter after banging his knee on the Marvel Stadium turf.
But St Kilda was utterly ferocious in the contest, denying Geelong clean possession and finding a baffling amount of space out the back, time and time again.
Then when the Cats clawed their way back – as they were always going to – the Saints clung on as desperately as debutant Isaac Keeler's cramping hamstring, to secure an outstanding seven-point victory, 15.8 (98) to 13.13 (91).
The win was the fourth straight for St Kilda against Geelong at Marvel Stadium, as the venue starts to take on hoodoo status for Chris Scott's men.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's peach boots out-reached Brad Close's purple pair, rushing a crucial behind, Liam O'Connell took a defining contested mark in his defensive goal-square, and Anthony Caminiti stretched as far as his shoulder ligaments would allow to deny Patrick Dangerfield a goal.
The foundation was laid by midfielders Marcus Windhager, Jack Sinclair and Jack Macrae early in the game, and the small forwards took full advantage, Jack Higgins booting four majors.
The Saints jumped out to a 27-point lead at quarter-time, and the margin bobbled around that mark for a while, pushing out to 41 halfway through the third before the Cats began their comeback.
Wanganeen-Milera was lethal out of defence, freeing up teammates on the rebound with searching, pin-point passes, while Sinclair provided plenty of bounce through the middle of the ground, also kicking two goals.
WIndhager completely shut Max Holmes out of the first half, last year's best and fairest recording just one disposal in the opening term and 19 for the game, while the impressive Saint kicked two goals to go with 25 of his own.
Geelong threw the magnets around after half-time, with an out-of-sorts Jeremy Cameron pushed onto the wing and Mark Blicavs into the ruck, and it briefly paid off with three quick goals, but Mitch Owens steadied the Saints just before the final break.
It proved to have been the crucial break, with the Cats kicking four final-quarter goals to one, to no avail.
Missing: Cat(s)
A number of Geelong players were well down on their usual output, struggling to get their hands on the footy. Played mostly out of the square, Patrick Dangerfield didn't touch the ball until the final two minutes of the first term. Jeremy Cameron appeared unsettled by a calf issue and had six touches to the half. Without Smith, Max Holmes' pace was badly needed and he struggled early. Sam De Koning was outplayed by Rowan Marshall in the ruck, the Saint recording seven clearances himself.
Where's the ball?
St Kilda simply denied Geelong first use of the ball, recording 82 more disposals to the final break, and a differential of 67 at full-time. Most of the damage was done during the match in stoppage clearances around the ground, with Geelong able to break even in centre bounces. St Kilda had 71 more uncontested possessions by the final siren.
MRO Danger?
Dangerfield will be sweating on Sunday's MRO report after an incident where his frustration may have bubbled over. The Geelong skipper clipped Ryan Byrnes with an elbow to the head, giving away a free kick in an incident that will attract plenty of scrutiny. Byrnes played out the game, but Tom Lynch was suspended for a similar incident last week, with opponent Tom De Koning having also played the full match.
ST KILDA 6.1 10.5 14.6 15.8 (98)
GEELONG 1.4 5.6 9.9 13.13 (91)
GOALS
St Kilda: Higgins 4, Collard 2, Wood 2, Sinclair 2, Windhager 2, Owens, Collard, Keeler
Geelong: Clohsey 2, Dempsey 2, Neale 2, Stengle 2, Blicavs, Close, Holmes, Cameron, Knevitt,
BEST
St Kilda: Windhager, Macrae, Sinclair, Wanganeen-Milera, Marshall, Higgins
Geelong: Humphries, Atkins, Guthrie, Cameron, O'Sullivan
INJURIES
St Kilda: Stocker (concussion)
Geelong: Stewart (knee)
LATE CHANGES
St Kilda: Nil
Geelong: Bailey Smith (calf), replaced in selected side by Ted Clohesy
SUBSTITUTES
St Kilda: Hugo Garcia (replaced Stocker at half-time)
Geelong: Ted Clohesy (replaced Stewart in the second term)
Crowd: 36,663 at Marvel Stadium