SIMON Goodwin's post-match message to Melbourne was "stay calm, but get urgent", and the stats back up the sentiment.
Melbourne fielded 15 of its 2021 premiership players in its loss to Geelong, the fourth defeat running for the Dees, with only the injured Jake Lever (ankle) unavailable.
It's impressive retention – 2021 opponent Western Bulldogs fielded eight of a possible 12 Grand Final players last week, while last year's runners-up (and injury-hit) Sydney played 15 itself.
So where's it all gone wrong?
Average |
2021 |
2025 |
Disposals |
368.5 (8th) |
357.2 (14th) |
Marks |
89.4 (16th) |
85.2 (11th) |
Tackles |
62.2 (1st) |
51.2 (17th) |
Tackles inside 50 |
12.4 (1st) |
7.8 (16th) |
Clearances |
37.0 (5th) |
30.5 (18th) |
Contested possessions |
148.7 (1st) |
129.5 (13th) |
Inside 50s |
56.2 (2nd) |
50.5 (15th) |
The above are baseline stats, and gameplans do change over time.
But tackling never goes out of style, and the Dees are averaging 11 fewer in 2025 than in 2021, despite having been in a defensive mode for far longer, while Melbourne's midfield isn't nearly as imperious as it was in years past, sitting last for average clearances.
And it can be reductive to say they're just not going in hard enough, but you've got to win the footy to use the footy, and the Dees are simply not doing that at the moment, sitting 13th in the League for average contested possessions.
In 2021, they sat in first spot.
That then has a knock-on effect for the team's forward line, who are getting six fewer opportunities in attack than in 2021. Unsurprisingly, the number of tackles inside 50 have also decreased.
Where has the drop-off happened?
There are obviously a few caveats around some players after a turmoil-filled 2024, with Clayton Oliver having had a severely disrupted season.
Christian Petracca's traumatic injuries go without saying, and the star – sitting eighth in AFL.com.au's latest The 25 – is spending much more time in attack as he adjusts back to footy, averaging 3.8 fewer clearances.
The AFL Player Ratings is a sophisticated algorithm from Champion Data, assessing every action of every player in every game, and assigning points to paint a complete picture of every player's impact on a match.
Player Ratings |
2021 |
2025 |
Clayton Oliver |
17.39 |
10.43 |
Christian Petracca |
16.76 |
13.53 |
Max Gawn |
14.76 |
12.65 |
Jake Lever |
12.76 |
9.10 (two games) |
Bayley Fritsch |
9.94 |
3.05 |
Jack Viney |
9.52 |
7.43 |
Fritsch was Melbourne's leading goalkicker in its premiership year, and has taken out the past five in total.
But the livewire forward has kicked 1.7 this year. After four matches last year, he'd recorded 11.6.
Viney's averaging 2.3 fewer clearances this year than in 2021, and more concerningly given his bread-and-butter stat, 4.3 fewer tackles.
2021 premiership team breakdown
Played v Geelong: Steven May, Trent Rivers, Harry Petty, Christian Salem, Christian Petracca, Ed Langdon, Tom McDonald, Tom Sparrow, Charlie Spargo, Bayley Fritsch, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Jake Bowey, Kozzy Pickett (15)
Injured: Jake Lever (1)
New club: Alex Neal-Bullen, James Harmes, Luke Jackson, James Jordon (4)
Delisted: Nil
Retired: Michael Hibberd, Angus Brayshaw, Ben Brown (3)
Ins v Geelong: Harry Sharp, Kade Chandler, Jack Henderson, Jake Melksham, Jacob van Rooyen, Harvey Langford, Caleb Windsor, Daniel Turner