ARE we on the verge of having a 10-win finalist for the first time in the 18-team competition?
Not since Essendon in 2009 – a year they also played a draw – has a team played finals with 10 wins.
Before that you have to wind the clock back to 1995 since a side last featured in September with 40 premiership points in an eight-team finals system.
Brisbane was still the Bears when it made finals with 10 wins in 1995. Picture: AFL Photos
Approaching round 16, just one game separates 14th and eighth with a logjam of seven clubs emerging for the last finals berth in September.
With Geelong flying at the top of the table and teams in the middle-to-lower region of the ladder incredibly even, a 10-win finals side is on the cards.
Richmond's improving injury list and kind run home with seven matches at the MCG has them in a comfortable position to play finals.
THE RUN HOME Is Port too unreliable to play finals?
From there it's anyone's game.
Should results fall their way, the Bombers – currently on seven wins – may only need three more to secure a berth.
Port Adelaide – currently in ninth – faces the most fascinating run home with seven of its remaining eight matches against teams from fifth to 12th.
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Since the introduction of Greater Western Sydney in 2012, a minimum 12 or 13-win season has been required to play finals.
Even Carlton's 2013 campaign – when it played finals from ninth after Essendon was stood down – saw them win 11 matches.
This year could be an outlier for the ages.
DO YOUR OWN: Use the AFL Ladder Predictor to see how 2019 plays out
HOW IT WOULD PLAY OUT – KEY GAMES
Round 16 – Sydney defeats Essendon (MCG)
Round 16 – Adelaide defeats Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Round 16 – North Melbourne defeats St Kilda (Blundstone Arena)
Round 17 – Hawthorn defeats Fremantle (UTAS Stadium)
Round 17 – North Melbourne defeats Essendon (Marvel Stadium)
Round 17 – Brisbane defeats Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Round 18 – Adelaide defeats Essendon (Adelaide Oval)
Round 18 – Richmond defeats Port Adelaide (MCG)
Round 18 – Fremantle defeats Sydney (Optus Stadium)
Round 18 – Western Bulldogs defeat St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
Round 19 – Western Bulldogs defeat Fremantle (Marvel Stadium)
Round 20 – Hawthorn defeats North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
Round 20 – Essendon defeats Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium)
Round 21 – Port Adelaide defeats Sydney (Adelaide Oval)
Round 21 – Essendon defeats Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
Round 21 – St Kilda defeats Fremantle (Marvel Stadium)
Round 22 – North Melbourne defeats Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium)
Round 22 – Fremantle defeats Essendon (Optus Stadium)
Round 23 – North Melbourne defeats Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Round 23 – Port Adelaide defeats Fremantle (Adelaide Oval)
Round 23 – Collingwood defeats Essendon (MCG)
Round 23 – Sydney defeats St Kilda (SCG)
*All games decided by 20 points
10-win finalists in the top-eight system
2009 – 16 teams – Essendon – 8th – 42 points (10 wins, one draw)
1997 – 16 teams – Brisbane – 8th – 42 points (10 wins, one draw)
1995 – 16 teams – Brisbane – 8th – 40 points (10 wins)
