WATCHING North Melbourne ruckman Todd Goldstein wreak havoc against Port Adelaide on Saturday night was a none-too-subtle reminder he still has more to give.
At age 31, 'Goldy' is a free agent for the first time and can largely dictate where his future will be, although he is as good as certain to remain where he's been for the past 13 seasons.
St Kilda made the biggest pitch to try to lure him from Arden St, with his stock soaring this year after a difficult period, particularly in 2017, when he was dropped to the VFL.
Goldstein's impact was undeniable at the weekend – and he now boasts three of the best five matches by any ruckman, according to the AFL Player Ratings.
PLAYER RATING | PLAYER | GAME |
36.0 | Todd Goldstein | R3, 2016 v Melbourne |
33.7 | Scott Lycett | R2, 2019 v Carlton |
33.0 | Nic Naitanui | R9, 2015 v Geelong |
32.3 | Todd Goldstein | R22, 2019 v Port Adelaide |
30.7 | Todd Goldstein | SF, 2014 v Geelong |
The general consensus is the AFL's best big men are Collingwood's Brodie Grundy and Demon Max Gawn, who both made last year's Virgin Australia AFL All Australian team.
However, Goldstein – the 2015 All Australian ruckman – is mounting a strong case to again be included in that company, given he is the game's No.1 player on ratings between rounds 15 and 22.
The star Roo is the sole ruckman among 15 players on record to register at least 30 disposals, 15 contested possessions, 15 score involvements, seven clearances and one goal in a game.
PLAYER | GAME | DISP | CONT POSS | SCORE INV | GOALS | CLEAR |
Todd Goldstein | R22, 2019 | 34 | 19 | 17 | 1 | 9 |
Gary Ablett jnr | R5, 2008 | 35 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 9 |
Dayne Beams | R18, 2013 | 37 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 8 |
Joel Corey | R19, 2011 | 35 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 10 |
Patrick Dangerfield | R16, 2017 | 38 | 23 | 16 | 3 | 10 |
Mitch Duncan | R16, 2017 | 38 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 9 |
Nat Fyfe | R7, 2015 | 30 | 20 | 15 | 3 | 10 |
Ryan Griffen | R23, 2014 | 38 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
Chris Judd | R18, 2011 | 33 | 20 | 15 | 1 | 7 |
Chris Judd | R15, 2011 | 31 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 11 |
Josh P. Kennedy | R23, 2016 | 37 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 8 |
Dustin Martin | R17, 2017 | 40 | 18 | 15 | 2 | 14 |
Dane Swan | R4, 2011 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 7 |
Dane Swan | R15, 2009 | 34 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 7 |
Jobe Watson | R2, 2013 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 9 |
The question remains: just how valuable is a ruckman in a team's success?
Six-time All Australian Dean Cox, Tiger-turned-Cat Brad Ottens and then-Magpie Darren Jolly are the only ruckmen to feature in the top 10 of their club's best and fairest in a premiership year since 2006.
It's hard to argue any longer that this is just a coincidence.
YEAR | PREMIER | RUCKMAN | B&F TOP 10 |
2006 | West Coast | Dean Cox | Eighth |
2007 | Geelong | Brad Ottens | Eighth |
2008 | Hawthorn | Robert Campbell | - |
2009 | Geelong | Brad Ottens | - |
2010 | Collingwood | Darren Jolly | 10th |
2011 | Geelong | Brad Ottens | - |
2012 | Sydney | Shane Mumford | - |
2013 | Hawthorn | David Hale | - |
2014 | Hawthorn | Ben McEvoy | - |
2015 | Hawthorn | Ben McEvoy | - |
2016 | Western Bulldogs | Jordan Roughead | - |
2017 | Richmond | Toby Nankervis | - |
2018 | West Coast | Nathan Vardy | - |
Grundy transcends what is expected of a big man, given he is set to average more than 20 possessions in consecutive years, whereas a typical ruckman averages between 11 and 12.5 disposals since 2013.
An ability to win or be competitive in hitouts, largely those to advantage, is the most basic measure of a ruckman's worth.
Even then, only the 61.1 per cent correlation between hitouts to advantage and winning clearances is positively noteworthy in the key metrics.
Yet the team that comes out on top in hitouts to advantage is losing 55.4 per cent of matches this year.
Most hitout success rates result in just a minor advantage in related categories, such as scores from stoppages.
So while Goldstein showed his value on Saturday night, the wider evidence suggests ruckmen aren't typically decisive factors in the end result.
Greater Western Sydney matches unwanted University record
The Giants' failure to kick a second-half goal in the past fortnight has placed them in rare territory.
You have to go all the way back to the University sides from rounds 16 and 17, 1911 to find the last team to manage that undesirable feat.
On the flipside, the streaking Western Bulldogs, who whipped GWS on Sunday, created their own history at the weekend.
CLUB | YEAR | MATCHES |
Western Bulldogs | 2019 | Round 21 (21 goals), round 22 (12) |
Sydney | 2017 | Round 23 (10), elimination final (10) |
Adelaide | 2016 | Round 19 (10), round 20 (11) |
Adelaide | 2015 | Round 20 (10), round 21 (10) |
Geelong | 2011 | Round 19 (12), round 20 (15 and 11) |
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Goals galore for Kangaroos star
North Melbourne forward Ben Brown went bananas in an outrageous 10-goal performance as the Roos gave Port Adelaide an 86-point hiding on Saturday night.
It was the first time any AFL player kicked a double-digit haul since Tiger Jack Riewoldt against Gold Coast in round 21 last year.
More sophisticated defensive schemes, the way goals are scored these days, and coaches' general want to share the goalkicking load have all played a role in 10-goal outings becoming unusual.
There were 11 such solo efforts in the 1991 season – the first time it happened at least 10 times in one year – and there were nine, 16 and eight in the following three campaigns.
In contrast, there's never been more than two in any season from 2000 onwards, including four years when there were none.
On scoring watch ahead of round 23
Scoring this season remains at a 50-year low entering the final home and away round, but there is another indicator of how far points tallies have fallen.
The average team score is 80.3, with the next-lowest since the 1969 campaign being last year's 83.1 and 2015's 86.4, so the drop-off is significant.
There have been only 71 scores of at least 100 this season – compared to 107 in 2018 – and there needs to be eight or more in round 23 to avoid setting a new low in that period.
The highest number in a season was 190 at the start of the 21st century.
When percentage doesn't matter
Essendon will almost certainly become the first team since its 2009 self to qualify for September with a sub-100 percentage.
The Bombers will have to beat Collingwood by at least 71 points in the last round to level their points for and against ledger.
Fifteen of the 29 times a squad made the post-season with a percentage below 100 have occurred since 1990.
HEADING HOME Tiger assistant Caracella to join Bombers
The lowest-ever percentage from a finals team was Fitzroy (81.6), which finished last in a four-club competition in 1916 but still won the premiership.
Port Adelaide's 1999 side has the worst percentage (90.1) of any finalist in a league with at least eight clubs.