HAWTHORN is firming as the favourite to land GWS midfield star Dylan Shiel, but coming up with a trade that satisfies the Giants won't be easy.
Shiel has attracted feverish interest from Victorian clubs ahead of this year's NAB AFL Trade Period, especially since it's emerged the Giants are prepared to consider releasing the 2017 All Australian from his contract for 2019.
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The Hawks' main rivals in the race for Shiel are Carlton and St Kilda, with Essendon believed to have dropped out of the running.
St Kilda and Carlton are offering significantly more money than the Hawks: the Saints reportedly have a six-year deal worth up to $8 million on the table, while the Hawks' offer is no more than $900,000 a season.
The Blues are pulling out all stops to convince Shiel his future lies at Visy Park, having reportedly flown the midfielder to Noosa to meet with club powerbrokers on Tuesday.
However, the prevailing view among rival list managers and recruiters is Hawthorn will ultimately be Shiel's preferred destination.
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If this proves correct, things could become tricky for the Hawks when they sit down with GWS to broker a trade
Of Shiel's three suitors, they are clearly the worst placed to satisfy the Giants with draft picks.
The Saints hold pick No.3 (pending free agency compensation picks and academy selections) and the Blues, who are expected to use this year's No.1 selection on Geelong Falcons midfielder Sam Walsh, could offer their future first-round pick, which even on the most optimistic projections is likely to fall comfortably inside the top 10.
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The Hawks' first selection this year does not fall until No.14 and that won't be enough to satisfy the Giants, who, at least as a starting point, would likely demand Hawthorn's 2019 first-round pick too.
That's a high price to pay but this year's Trade Period appears set to be a seller's market, with Melbourne understood to be seeking two early first-round picks for Jesse Hogan, Port Adelaide two first-round picks for Chad Wingard and Gold Coast expected to set the bar similarly high for Steven May.
Which sets the scene for some fascinating – and drawn-out – negotiations.
Neale first domino to fall
It emerged on Tuesday evening Fremantle midfielder Lachie Neale is set to push for a trade to Brisbane so he can join the Lions on a lucrative five-year deal.
That was big enough news in itself, but Neale's move to Brisbane carries a wider significance given it is likely to trigger a string of other high-profile trades.
The Dockers will understandably drive a hard bargain for Neale, who is contracted for 2019, with the Lions' first-round pick, currently No.4, almost certain to be in their sights.
If the Dockers are able to snare this, they will be armed with pick No.4 and No.5, which they can utilise to target Melbourne spearhead Jesse Hogan and, possibly, Giants forward/ruckman Rory Lobb.
And if Melbourne secures one, or both, of these picks it will be able to dangle them in front of Gold Coast for Steven May.
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There's some serious star power in this set of dominos.
Hombsch emerges as possible May replacement
Contracted Port Adelaide defender Jack Hombsch is understood to be on Gold Coast's radar as it prepares for Steven May's possible departure.
Hombsch is contracted for 2019 but has been put on the trade table by Port after falling behind Tom Jonas, Dougal Howard and Tom Clurey in the club's backline pecking order.
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The 194cm defender was a mainstay in the Power's defence in 2014 and 2015, finishing third in the Power's 2015 best and fairest award, but his progress was derailed by a string of injuries over the following two seasons.
But, at 25, Hombsch could flourish with a fresh start and help stiffen the Suns' defensive spine.
In other trade news:
- North Melbourne and Port Adelaide are inching towards a trade deal for Jared Polec. The Roos' No.1 pick remains on the table, with the clubs at odds over what Port sends back in return. It's understood the Power are offering a third-round pick, but North is seeking both of their third-round picks.
- Out-of-contract Gold Coast half-back Kade Kolodjashnij has requested a trade to Melbourne.
- Contracted Port Adelaide wingman Karl Amon is on the Hawthorn's radar after requesting a trade home to Victoria to be closer to family.
- Richmond forward Sam Lloyd appears set to join the Western Bulldogs after seeking a move for more opportunities.
- Gold Coast youngster Jack Scrimshaw is keen to explore a return to Victoria despite being contracted until the end of 2020, according to his manager Robbie D'Orazio. Hawthorn is understood to the front-runner to secure 2016's No.7 draft pick.
- Ruckman Billy Longer is set to recommit to St Kilda.
