THE BATTLE for spots at the top of the AFL ladder is heating up, but what's happening beneath those in the frame for finals footy is set to have a huge impact on this year's NAB AFL Draft.
With recruiters excited about the potential of a host of under-18 prospects, the order of those at the bottom could dictate an interesting draft night.
With that in mind, here is a look at the current bottom six and their respective finishes to the year to see how the draft order could pan out.
13. Fremantle
24 points (six wins, nine losses), 82.4 per cent
It's a wretched run home for the Dockers, despite the fact they play five of their final seven matches at Optus Stadium. Of all of Fremantle's remaining opponents, Carlton is the only side not in the finals hunt, while Essendon is its only other opponent not currently in the top eight. Don't be surprised if Ross Lyon's men slide down the ladder and end the year with a top-five pick at the NAB AFL Draft.
The run home
Rd 17: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium
Rd 18: Essendon @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton @ Optus Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
Rd 23: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium
Predicted pick: It could come down to percentage. Expect the Dockers to just stay above the Dogs and finish with pick No.6 or No.7, depending on whether Tom Lynch remains at the Suns.
14. Western Bulldogs
20 points (five wins, 10 losses), 74.3 per cent
The Dogs will be hoping to pinch a couple of wins to close the season, but face some tough games along the way. They should beat Carlton at Etihad Stadium in the penultimate round of the season, while a clash against St Kilda presents another big opportunity. Should they win both, there's a big chance they leapfrog the Dockers on the ladder. They should finish with a top-six pick at the NAB AFL Draft, but they'll need more points in order to match bids for father-son prospect Rhylee West and academy player Baku Khamis.
The run home
Rd 17: Melbourne @ MCG
Rd 18: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide @ Mars Stadium
Rd 20: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond @ MCG
Predicted pick: The Dogs might fancy their chances to get two more wins and match the Dockers. But expect them to still finish just below them on the ladder. They'll likely hold pick No.5 or No.6.
Bulldogs leave the field after the heavy loss to Hawthorn. Picture: AFL Photos
15. St Kilda
14 points (three wins, 11 losses, one draw), 72.6 per cent
The Saints will be favourites to earn their fourth win of the season against the Blues this weekend. They meet the Dogs in a month's time in a clash that could decide whether they manage to climb out of the bottom four. However, given those fixtures bookmark games against the Tigers and the Giants, doing so appears unlikely. In a positive, six of their final seven matches are played at Etihad Stadium. But a slow start to the year is likely to mean they'll take a top-four pick into the NAB AFL Draft.
The run home
Rd 17: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: GWS Giants @ Spotless Stadium
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: North Melbourne @ Etihad Stadium
Predicted pick: They'll likely stay in the bottom four. But that selection could soon become pick No.5 should Tom Lynch leave Gold Coast.
16. Brisbane
12 points (three wins, 12 losses), 88.9 per cent
The Lions may have only won three matches for the year, but they have a better percentage than five teams in the competition. It proves how competitive they've been all year, even in losses. With that said, it's a tough run home for Brisbane. A QClash against Gold Coast in the penultimate round of the season is just about the only game they will start favourites for. However, given their solid percentage, a win against their Queensland rivals will just about guarantee they stay above the Suns.
The run home
Rd 17: Hawthorn @ UTAS Stadium
Rd 18: Adelaide @ Gabba
Rd 19: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne @ Gabba
Rd 21: Collingwood @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast @ Gabba
Predicted pick: Expect the Lions to finish third from the bottom. But a second selection for the Suns, should Tom Lynch leave, might push them out of the top three in the NAB AFL Draft.
The Lions celebrate their big win over the Blues. Picture: AFL Photos
17. Gold Coast
12 points (three wins, 12 losses), 62.7 per cent
The Suns are in terrible form, but face fellow bottom-three outfits the Blues and the Lions at Metricon Stadium to close out the year. It's hard to see them upsetting any other side in the competition at the moment. Should they remain second-last, and in the likely event that co-captain Tom Lynch leaves as a free agent at season's end, expect Gold Coast to land a first-round pick as compensation. It could see them hold picks No.2 and No.3 at the upcoming NAB AFL Draft, which would help reshape the club's long-term future.
The run home
Rd 17: Essendon @ Metricon Stadium
Rd 18: Sydney @ SCG
Rd 19: Carlton @ Metricon Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne @ MCG
Rd 21: Richmond @ Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane @ Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
Predicted pick: It looks almost certain that Gold Coast will finish second-last. Tom Lynch also looks likely to leave the Suns, with the expectation compensation to hand them picks No.2 and No.3 at the draft.
18. Carlton
Four points (one win, 14 losses), 62.2 per cent
The Blues have had one win in 15 games so far this year. And if they keep playing like they did against the Lions over the weekend, it's hard to see them getting another. However, should they find that second win, expect it to come in the next month. St Kilda has been vulnerable all year, while Carlton beat Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium last season, as well as Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium. Regardless, expect them to hold the first pick at the upcoming NAB AFL Draft at season's end.
The run home
Rd 17: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
Rd 20: GWS Giants @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Adelaide @ Etihad Stadium
Predicted pick: It will be hard for the Blues to climb off the bottom of the ladder now. They'll be odds-on favourite to take pick No.1 into this year's NAB AFL Draft.
