THE MATCH Review Panel has no option but to suspend Collingwood ruckman Brodie Grundy after the precedent set with Patrick Dangerfield, and it is likely the big man will face an even stiffer penalty for his dangerous tackle on Ben Brown.
Grundy's tackle on Saturday night ticked all the boxes for an illegal tackle under the MRP guidelines, with arms pinned, Brown was in a vulnerable position and taken to ground with excessive force.
The key difference to the Dangerfield tackle on Matthew Kreuzer seven days earlier is there was a double action, an automatic trigger for the MRP when assessing dangerous tackles.
The tackle left Brown lying motionless on the Etihad Stadium turf and resulted in his hospitalisation overnight, giving the MRP a clear case for a grading of high impact if the tackle is deemed illegal.
When all of that is considered, a grading of careless conduct, high impact and high contact should be applied, resulting in a three-match suspension down to two with an early guilty plea.
That decision would send a clear message to the industry, which has debated appropriate penalties for dangerous tackles since Dangerfield was ruled ineligible for this year's Brownlow Medal.
In a big day for the MRP, Geelong forward Tom Hawkins will be assessed for two incidents in Friday night's clash against Sydney.
The first, a strike to the chest of Callum Mills, should be thrown out because of insufficient force, but the Cats will be fearing the MRP's verdict for a high strike on Dane Rampe.
The threshold for impact is lower with a high strike and, while the MRP could decide there is insufficient force, there appears to be enough to justify a grading of careless conduct with low impact to the head.
Hawkins and Rampe get acquainted. #AFLCatsSwans pic.twitter.com/l5yuxhH5gd
— AFL (@AFL) August 4, 2017
That would result in Hawkins' third such suspension in two seasons, and his second this year, for a punch or jumper punch that connects high and his bad record would see a second match added to his final penalty.
Greater Western Sydney ruckman Shane Mumford is set for his first suspension since 2011 for a high bump on Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn, with a one- to two-match penalty looming.
Mumford's bump is likely to be graded careless as it was in play, despite having the option to tackle, meaning impact will be crucial to the final penalty.
The MRP has the option to upgrade impact from medium to high because of the risk of serious injury with high bumps, but Gawn got to his feet after looking a little shaky and was able to play on.
So despite the dangerous action, Mumford could walk away with a one-week ban with a grading of careless conduct with medium impact to the head.
One week after suspending the Brownlow Medal favourite,the MRP faces a decision on another contender in Zach Merrett, but the young Bomber should remain eligible.
Lachie Plowman went to ground following this incident involving Zach Merrett. #AFLDonsBlues pic.twitter.com/yt5coHTDjU
— AFL (@AFL) August 5, 2017
His strike on Lachie Plowman was without doubt sufficient for a charge, but the Carlton defender was not in the same state he was after Brisbane Lions star Dayne Zorko struck him two weeks ago.
A grading of intentional conduct with low impact to the body with a $1000 fine would be appropriate.