IF JOSH Kelly elects to come home to Victoria, what will Greater Western Sydney demand in a trade?
Former GWS midfielder Adam Treloar's trade to Collingwood at the end of 2015 provides the best recent precedent.
Like Kelly, Treloar was 22 at the time and coming off his fourth AFL season, one in which he finished second in the Giants' best and fairest award.
After much wrangling, the Pies gave up picks No.7 and No.65 (before academy selections) in the 2015 NAB AFL Draft along with their 2016 first-round pick (No.7) for Treloar and pick No.28 from GWS.
Kelly's 2017 season has made him an even more exciting prospect than Treloar two years ago.
The silky left-footer is not expected to make an announcement on his future until the end of the Giants' season, which if they reach the Grand Final would be little more than a week before the trade period opens.
If Kelly has a leaning, it appears he will recommit to GWS on a two-year deal. But most interested parties believe 2013's No.2 draft pick remains genuinely undecided on his future.
Let's assume, though, Kelly decides to come home.
What would a Victorian club have to offer to clinch a trade?
Although Essendon has been linked with Kelly recently, Carlton, North Melbourne and St Kilda remain the main contenders. Let's look at how each is placed to satisfy the Giants.
CARLTON
The Blues are firming as the team most likely to land Kelly if he leaves the Giants.
Kelly's manager, Paul Connors, told Fox Sports last week he was obsessed with his clients winning premierships and most in the football industry believe Carlton is best positioned of the three candidates for long-term on-field success.
The Blues hold pick No.3 in this year's draft but can wave goodbye to it if Kelly requests a move to Ikon Park.
The Giants would want more, too.
Assuming any Blues players GWS would want are untouchable – Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow and Sam Petrevski-Seton, for instance – Carlton would need to satisfy the Giants with another draft pick.
Under the AFL's draft points system, the Giants netted 2701 points in the Treloar trade.
The Blues' No.3 pick is worth 2234 points. They don't have a second-round pick this season, having traded it to Geelong in last year's trade period, and their third-round pick, No.38 (465 points), would not interest GWS.
Even allowing for organic improvement in the Blues' list next season and the boost Kelly would give their midfield, Carlton's first-round pick next year would seem 'overs' as the second piece of a trade.
But if Bryce Gibbs again requests a trade to Adelaide this year, the Blues could net an attractive pick that could be on-traded to the Giants.
If the Blues packaged pick No.3 and the Crows' first pick for Gibbs, which looks like being around the 15 to 17 mark if they at least make a preliminary final, they would essentially equal the value of the two No.7 picks the Pies gave for Treloar.
As Collingwood did in that trade, the Blues could confidently demand one of the two second-round selections the Giants hold, No.23 (acquired from Collingwood) and No.25 (St Kilda), with the latter pick their more likely return.
Carlton is also circling Kelly's Giants teammate Jacob Hopper, so he could be added to the trade rather than a draft pick. In that event, however, GWS would ask the Blues to stump up far more.
A return home to Adelaide might see Bryce Gibbs part of a Kelly trade. Picture: AFL Photos
NORTH MELBOURNE
Depending on who you listen to, North is either the long-shot among Kelly's suitors
or the front-runner.
The Roos-are-in-the-box-seat faction point to the club's history with the Kelly family – Josh's father Phil played 61 games at Arden St from 1981-85 – and the fact North was the first club to dangle a Godfather offer in front of the midfielder.
If this group is on the money, the Roos will almost certainly have to give up their first draft selection, which falls one pick behind the Blues at No.4 overall.
Pick No.4 is worth 2034 draft points but, like Carlton, North would have to add a sweetener.
It's highly unlikely North would part with its 2018 first-round pick given it could need a stockpile of draft points for Tasmanian academy prospect Tarryn Thomas and possible father-son selections Nick Blakey (also eligible to join the Brisbane Lions and Sydney), Bailey Scott (also Geelong and Gold Coast) and Joel Crocker.
North's second-round pick this year, No.21 (878 points), is more likely to be on the table, but the Giants are unlikely to jump at it, at least initially, without a favourable shuffle of later selections.
Which could mean the Roos need to trade for an earlier pick, or include a player as the secondary part of a Kelly deal.
The GWS list is the one of most talented in the competition, but an emerging ruckman who could replace Shane Mumford when his battle-scarred body gives up the ghost could appeal. Young Kangaroo Braydon Preuss fits that bill, but the 22-year-old Queenslander is contracted for 2018 and appears as untouchable as MC Hammer and his criminal baggy pants.
Braydon Preuss would appeal to the Giants, but is all but untouchable. Picture: AFL Photos
ST KILDA
The Saints are best placed to orchestrate a relatively smooth deal with the Giants.
With picks No.7 (acquired from Hawthorn last year) and No.8, St Kilda has a package that almost mirrors Collingwood's Treloar offer.
Given they did not have a first-round pick last year, the Saints might prefer to hang on to one of these picks and package the other with their 2018 first-round pick, banking on a top-eight finish to push that selection up as high as the early teens.
Whether the Saints offer their 2017 picks or a 2017-18 combo, they would want something back. The Giants would likely be more generous in this situation if they get this year's picks, but, again, one of their second-round picks could come into play.
An exchange of late picks would probably then be required to satisfy GWS, whose third pick does not come until No.63.
It seems unlikely the Saints could successfully package one first-round pick and a player.
Out-of-favour ruckman Tom Hickey could appeal to the Giants, but the 26-year-old is contracted until the end of 2019 and believed to be happy to stay at Seaford and fight to reclaim a regular senior berth.
A classy small forward could also be of interest to GWS. Jade Gresham fits that bill but the Saints won't be letting him go.
St Kilda wouldn't offer up Jade Gresham as part of any deal with the Giants. Picture: AFL Photos
CONCLUSION
All three teams have the trade pawns to get a deal done, so if Kelly decides to come home he could nominate a preferred new club confident he will get there.
The clubs' potential for on-field success will largely influence his decision, which most believe tilts the scales in Carlton's favour.
Although St Kilda's rebuild started two years earlier than Carlton's, there is a perception the Blues' youngsters – led by Cripps, Weitering, Charlie Curnow and Petrevski-Seton – will ultimately be better, while the Kangaroos have not had a top-five pick since drafting Ben Cunnington in 2009 and need an urgent injection of class.
The Giants desperately want to keep Kelly, but will get back into the first round of this year's draft if they don't.
GWS was stripped of its first-round pick following Lachie Whitfield's six-month suspension for failing to comply with WADA protocols, but a Kelly trade would give them access to one, if not two, of the brightest talents in the draft pool. Sound familiar?
