UNTIL injury struck Gold Coast champion Gary Ablett in 2014, his performance in the previous four-and-a-half seasons stood so far above the rest of the competition that his worst 40 games were rated higher than the next best player's top 40 games.
That remarkable finding is contained in a 2016 thesis by Champion Data analyst Karl Jackson, Assessing Player Performance in Australian Football Using Spatial Data, that defined the logic behind the Schick AFL Player Ratings.
In round 16, 2014 the superstar was on track to win his third Brownlow Medal and the Suns were heading for finals before a tackle from Collingwood's Brent Macaffer caused a shoulder injury that ended Ablett's season.
He still managed 22 Brownlow Medal votes in 2014, just four votes behind West Coast's Matt Priddis despite missing the final seven games.
The Suns won just one of those games to drop out of the final eight and miss the finals.
Ablett plays his 300th game on Saturday when the Suns take on North Melbourne at Metricon stadium, having played just 31 games of a possible 64 games since injury first struck.
However, the thesis provides a stark reminder as to how good Ablett was in his prime with Jackson writing:
"Ablett's worst 40-game patch [was] 2.2 per cent better than any other player's best 40-game period, and his best [was] 9.6 per cent better than any other player's best."
The Schick AFL Player Ratings, based on a player's past 40 games, deliver a long-term view of a player's standing within the AFL.
Gary Ablett leaves the field after injuring his shoulder in round 16, 2014. Picture: AFL Photos
Such was his dominance, Champion Data had a rule of thumb when developing the product called 'The Ablett Test'.
If Ablett finished on top then the test had some validity.
During 2010 and 2014 Ablett was the only player to finish in the top 10 for contested possessions, uncontested possessions, metres gained, goals, score involvements and score assists.
No other player in that period reached the top 10 in more than three of those categories and only Collingwood star Scott Pendlebury – who eventually passed Ablett in the Player Ratings in round 22, 2014 – was inside the top 100 players for all six categories.
Ablett's lowest point in the Player Ratings while still having 40 qualifying games was 714.3 points after round 22, 2013. The highest point any other player has reached was Pendlebury, who reached 698.7 points after round 22, 2014.
GARY ABLETT – THE GREATEST?
Geelong 2002-2010, Gold Coast 2011-2017
Premierships: 2007, 2009
Brownlow Medal
Winner: 2009, 2013.
Runner-up: 2010, 2014 (equal)
Third: 2008 (equal)
Total votes: 220 (equal most in history*)
Best and fairest: 2007, 2009 (equal), 2011, 2012, 2013
All Australian: 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
*Gary Dempsey has 246 votes, but adjusted to 218.5 using traditional 3-2-1 system
