1. Adelaide
58 points (14 wins, four losses, 1 draw) 141.5 per cent
A game and a half clear on top, the Crows will be tested over the remaining three weeks by Essendon's run, Sydney's hardness and West Coast's scoring power, which goes up several notches on home turf. Two wins from here should be enough for two home finals and the armchair ride through September.
The run home
Rd 21: Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Sydney (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: West Coast (Domain Stadium)
• Around the state leagues: Who starred in your club's twos?
2. Greater Western Sydney
52 points (12 wins, five losses, two draws) 115.3 per cent
The Giants still have plenty to do to shore up their top-two spot and enjoy the requisite benefits that follow. Beat the Dogs on Friday night and it will likely come down to a blockbuster Saturday night clash with Geelong at the Cattery in round 23. If the form they displayed for large parts of the win against Melbourne on Saturday becomes the new normal for the Giants, pencil them in for the Grand Final.
The run home
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: West Coast (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
3. Richmond
52 points (13 wins, six losses), 112.0 per cent
A surprisingly straightforward win over the Hawks secures the Tigers in the top four that little bit more and the pressure football they played on Sunday should stand up in September. But first there is the small matter of Geelong and the true Saturday afternoon blockbuster down at the Cattery. If the Tigers can win all three games from here, a top-two spot beckons if the Giants stumble. An MCG qualifying final? How good would that be?
The run home
Rd 21: Geelong (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Fremantle (Domain Stadium)
Rd 23: St Kilda (MCG)
• After the siren: Come on Tigers, make us believe
4. Geelong
50 points (12 wins, six losses, one draw) 115.1 per cent
Hard to think of a bigger Geelong-Richmond game than this one for many, many years. The Cats will take a 12-game winning streak against the Tigers into this week's clash and at home should feel supremely confident. This is the sort of big-game, home-ground advantage the Cats have been craving for years. The same for the Giants game two weeks after that which is likely to have huge ramifications for the make-up of the finals, although without skipper Joel Selwood until at least the finals, these are uncharted waters.
The run home
Rd 21: Richmond (Simonds Stadium)
Rd 22: Collingwood (MCG)
Rd 23: GWS (Simonds Stadium)
5. Port Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 122.5 per cent
Once again Port came up short against a team of real quality and you can put a line through them for the flag. And with Swans and Dogs finishing fast they might need to win all three from here to ensure themselves a home final. The round 22 Ballarat clash with the Dogs might not just be historic, but really important as well.
The run home
Rd 21: Collingwood (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs (Eureka Stadium)
Rd 23: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval)
6. Sydney
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 117.2 per cent
A brilliant win on Friday night and means a top-six finish is likely for the Swans, which puts them right back in flag calculations. Beat Adelaide on the road on Friday week and they could yet finish top four. As long as they don't play the Hawks again, the Swans are in the premiership race up to their ears.
• Nine things we learned from round 20
The run home
Rd 21: Fremantle (SCG)
Rd 22: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Rd 23: Carlton (SCG)
7. Western Bulldogs
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 101.1 per cent
That's four straight wins for the Dogs, who have regained their mojo in the nick of time. Given their percentage, they'll need to win two of their last three to get in, but each shapes as a 50-50 proposition at best based on form and available personnel. The Hawthorn game in round 23 will no longer be a 'win and get in' for both clubs but Luke Hodge's farewell makes it a massive Friday night nonetheless. They'll need Jason Johannisen fully fit for the run home to the finals and will probably need to roll the dice with a sore Bob Murphy given Easton Wood will miss the final three matches with a hamstring injury.
The run home
Rd 21: GWS (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Port Adelaide (Eureka Stadium)
Rd 23: Hawthorn (Etihad Stadium)
• Fantasy form watch: First final brings more carnage
8. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 107.3 per cent
Four points gained, but a not a whole lot more against the Blues on Saturday. Playing at their best, the Bombers can knock over Adelaide on Saturday night to give their finals hopes a huge boost. Lose and they'll likely be relying on percentage at the end of round 23 to get in. Losing Orazio Fantasia is a blow to their scoring power and they'll be praying for some good news with Zach Merrett on the MRP front.
The run home
Rd 21: Adelaide (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 22: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
Rd 23: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)
9. West Coast
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 105.0 per cent
The Eagles will remain in the finals mix for at least another week. The Blues at home shouldn't present too large a hurdle, but then they'll need to get past the two flag favourites to get there – GWS and the Crows. If they make it, they'll have truly earned it.
The run home
Rd 21: Carlton (Domain Stadium)
Rd 22: GWS (Spotless Stadium)
Rd 23: Adelaide (Domain Stadium)
• Forecast the road to the flag with the AFL Ladder and Finals Predictor
10. Melbourne
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 104.8 per cent
The Demons need to win out from here to guarantee their place in the finals after a disappointing fortnight on the road. Huge game Sunday against the Saints, against whom they only ended a long losing streak in the opening game of the season. If the Demons don't make it, the pair of losses against lowly North Melbourne will be their major source of regret.
The run home
Rd 21: St Kilda (MCG)
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (MCG)
Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG)
11. St Kilda
40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 97.3 per cent
The Saints are alive, still, after gutsing it out against the Eagles on Sunday. All year the discussion has been about who is on more of an upward trajectory, them or the Demons. We'll find out a fair bit on Sunday at the MCG when they meet in what is pretty much an elimination final.
The run home
Rd 21: Melbourne (MCG)
Rd 22: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium)
Rd 23: Richmond (MCG)
