WHAT'S a No.1 draft pick worth in AFL Fantasy? Turns out, it's as much of a lucky dip as the draft itself.
The recent trend of key-position top picks means that of the past nine No.1 selections, only Tom Scully (MID, $493,000) is averaging more than the ton in Fantasy this year, although we'll give the injured David Swallow (MID, $459,000) a pass.
Bryce Gibbs' (MID, $590,000) stunning 137-point effort against the Cats was the kind of game you want to see from a No.1 pick in his 10th year, if not a little earlier.
Gibbs' five-game average of 127.4 is the best in the League as the Blues have been on a tear, but while it feels like he's truly arrived, he had a similarly strong season in 2009 with an average of 107.0 and 13 scores over the century.
Carlton is back at the top of the tree in terms of most No.1 picks running around, following Tom Boyd's defection to the Bulldogs and the addition of Jacob Weitering at Ikon Park.
If you've got all four of those players in your Fantasy team, you're banking a touch over 320 points per game this year, a solid number for two midfielders, a defender and a ruckman.
Interestingly, it's the No.2 picks of the past few seasons who really look the Fantasy goods. Christian Petracca (2014), Josh Kelly (2013) and Stephen Coniglio (2012) all look like players you'll be able to pick with confidence for the next decade.
It suggests that Lachie Whitfield (MID, $438,000) is tracking well as a No.1 pick of 2011 with an 85-point Fantasy average in his fourth season.
The No.2 pick from that year, Jonathan O'Rourke (MID, $264,000), can't crack it for a game with the Hawks and isn't making much of an impression on Fantasy numbers at VFL level.
With the division one NAB AFL Under-18 Championships kicking off this weekend, the next generation of Fantasy talent will be strutting its stuff.
It remains to be seen if there's a point-scoring beast in the mix, or if the No.1 pick will maintain the trend of a patchy Fantasy record.
The No.1 draft picks and their 2016 Fantasy numbers
2015: Jacob Weitering (DEF, $261,000) - 56.4 from 8 games
2014: Paddy McCartin (FWD, $253,000) - 49.7 from 6 games
2013: Tom Boyd (FWD, $293,000) - 56.5 from 4 games
2012: Lachie Whitfield (MID, $438,000) - 85.4 from 10 games
2011: Jonathon Patton (FWD, $269,000) - 52.1 from 9 games
2010: David Swallow (MID, $459,000) - 0 games
2009: Tom Scully (MID, $493,000) - 100.8 from 10 games
2008: Jack Watts (FWD/MID, $393,000) - 75.9 from 10 games
2007: Matthew Kreuzer (RUC, $403,000) - 75.3 from 9 games
2006: Bryce Gibbs (MID, $590,000) - 112.5 from 10 games
2005: Marc Murphy (MID, $426,000) - 79.8 from 10 games
2004: Brett Deledio (FWD, $494,000) - 95.0 from 5 games
2003: Adam Cooney (MID, $454,000) - 87.3 from 10 games
2002: Brendon Goddard (MID, $534,000) - 102.5 from 10 games
2001: Luke Hodge (MID, $500,000) - 76.8 from 4 games
2000: Nick Riewoldt (FWD, $601,000) - 112.4 from 10 games
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Top five price rises
- Josh Dunkley (MID, $244,000) +$43,000: $244,000
- Connor Blakely (MID, Fremantle), +$40,000: $254,000
- Taylor Walker (FWD, Adelaide), +$30,000: $376,000
- Scott Lycett (FWD/RUC, West Coast), +$27,000: $483,000
- Jeremy Howe (DEF/FWD, Collingwood), +$25,000: $415,000
Top five price falls
- Sam Mitchell (MID, Hawthorn), -$36,000: $477,000
- Luke Parker (MID, Sydney Swans), -$33,000: $515,000
- Marc Murphy (MID, Carlton), -$33,000: $426,000
- Stefan Martin (RUC, Brisbane Lions), -$31,000: $442,000
- Scott Thompson (MID, Adelaide), -$29,000: $454,000
Get 'em in
Rory Sloane (MID, $537,000): Back in good touch as the Crows' main midfield man and projected to score well (111) back at Adelaide Oval this week against the Saints.
Gary Ablett (MID, $497,000): The Little Master at a sub-$500,000 price is just too good to ignore. Don't hesitate.
Levi Greenwood (MID, $380,000): Set to attend more stoppages with Taylor Adams out injured and has delivered strong numbers against this week's opponent (Port Adelaide) in the past.
Bye for now
Darcy Moore (MID, $268,000): The high-leaping Pie has a collarbone injury that will sideline him for at least the short term.
Allen Christensen (FWD, $373,000): One of many disappointing Lions and is now under an injury cloud after a knock against the Hawks.
Taylor Adams (MID, $526,000): A big loss for thousands of Fantasy coaches – his hamstring injury means a trade to Jack Steven looks the smart call.
