1. Fremantle

52 points (13 wins, two losses) 128.4 per cent

A cracking game looms at the MCG on Saturday against the improved Richmond. A loss there and a West Coast defeat of the Sydney Swans would see the Dockers drop from the top of the ladder for the first time since round four. Also pivotal to their top two aspirations will be rounds 20 and 21 that feature a home derby with the Eagles and a trip to Etihad to face the enigmatic North Melbourne. On form, Freo would only start clear favourites in three of their last seven games. 

The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond the MCG
Rd 18: GWS at Domain Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Who's going to make it? Check out the 2015 ladder predictor

2. West Coast

48 points (12 wins, three losses) 156.5 per cent

How serious a flag threat are the Eagles? Rolling Collingwood in Melbourne on Saturday silenced a few doubters, but the coming month remains huge for the season's surprise packet. They play all three of their rivals in the top four. Win at least two of those games and you'd fancy them to earn a home qualifying final. In their favour is that all three games are at their Subiaco home. Working against them is a thin backline made threadbare by Jeremy McGovern's injury.

Round 19's clash with Hawthorn shapes as a battle for a spot in the top two.

The run home:
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at Domain Stadium
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at Domain Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at the Domain Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: St Kilda at Domain Stadium

3. Hawthorn

44 points (11 wins, four losses) 159.3 per cent

The three-peat is on. Back to back poleaxings of Fremantle and the Sydney Swans have not only restored the Hawks' status as flag favourites, but also turbocharged their percentage. That could prove decisive as Alastair Clarkson's men attempt to dislodge one of Fremantle or West Coast to secure a qualifying final on home turf. Round 20's western derby works in the Hawks' favour, as at least one of the Perth teams will drop points. The round 19 clash with West Coast is essentially a play off for a top two berth and if the Hawks win, then their final two games against the Lions and Blues might afford them the chance to freshen some veterans ahead of the finals.

The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at Aurora Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at the MCG 

4. Sydney Swans

44 points (11 wins, four losses) 118.3 per cent

Saturday night's smashing by Hawthorn has the Swans looking over their shoulders. If they lose away to the Eagles next week and Richmond rolls Freo at the MCG, they could drop out of the top four thanks to their increasingly battered percentage. Thankfully for Swans fans, it gets easier. Away games against finals contenders Geelong and GWS pose the major challenges in the remaining seven games, three of which are at the SCG. A home clash with the Suns in round 23 shapes as an ideal tune-up before the finals. 

The run home:
Rd 17: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 18: Adelaide at the SCG
Rd 19: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at the SCG
Rd 21: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Gold Coast at the SCG

• After the siren: Starstruck Swans are stuck in the shallow end

5. Richmond

40 points (10 wins, five losses) 112.7 per cent

Last year, the great escape saw Richmond power into the finals on the back of nine straight wins. However a week-one obliteration by Port Adelaide suggested there was little left in the tank, and the challenge this year is to hit September running. Doing the double over Fremantle by winning next week would be a huge fillip ahead of a friendly August, and set up a realistic tilt at the top four. There's no shortage of practice at the MCG for the Tigers, who play five of their last seven games at the venue. They missed the chance to gain some additional percentage by easing off late against the Saints on Sunday.

The run home:
Rd 17: Fremantle at the MCG
Rd 18: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 19: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium

6. Western Bulldogs

36 points (nine wins, six losses) 105.8 per cent

In contrast to the Tigers, the Bulldogs won't see the MCG again before September. Form, not the fixture, is the problem for the sons of the west. They avoid all sides above them except West Coast in their run home, with the round 23 trip to Queensland their only other game away from Etihad Stadium. However, they made heavy weather of beating Carlton, Gold Coast and St Kilda before Saturday's loss in Geelong, and that suggests no remaining game will be a gimme.

The run home:
Rd 17: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Domain Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba 

7. Greater Western Sydney

36 points (nine wins, six losses) 104.1 per cent

Protect the home field from here on in and the Giants will play finals in just their fourth season. Geelong on Saturday in Canberra might be the biggest AFL game ever in the nation's capital and should sell out StarTrack Oval. The round 21 match-up against the Sydney Swans at Spotless will also be massive. Win the four home games and also the season finale against Melbourne at Etihad and a top six berth beckons, meaning a home elimination final. Where would they play it?

The run home:
Rd 17: Geelong at Startrack Oval
Rd 18: Fremantle at Domain Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at Spotless Stadium
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Spotless Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Spotless Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium 

• Fantasy form watch: And then there was Gaz

8. Adelaide

34 points (eight wins, six losses, one no result) 103.1 per cent

The stirring win over Port Adelaide allowed the Crows to leapfrog Collingwood into the eight. But they face a battle to remain there with top eight sides the Sydney Swans, Richmond and West Coast still to play plus the last game of the year at Geelong. You get the feeling Adelaide's season will be alive until the final weekend. In that event the hype ahead of a trip to Geelong – with Patrick Dangerfield tipped to be a Cat next year – will be out of control.

The run home:
Rd 17: Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 19: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval
Rd 22: West Coast at Adelaide Oval
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium

-------------------------------------------------

9. Collingwood

32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 117.8 per cent

However the Pies spent their bye week, it hasn't worked out well. Placed fourth and with an 8-3 record going into the break, they are since 0-4 and dropping like a stone. Travis Cloke's injury compounded Saturday's defeat by West Coast.

And to deepen their misery, Adelaide's win over Port dropped them out of the eight. Missing the finals for the second straight year would hurt after such a promising start to the season, and if the Pies fail to salvage a spot in September they won't be able to blame air miles. They only leave Victoria one more time for the season and that's an hour away to Sydney.

The run home:
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG

10. North Melbourne

32 points (eight wins, seven losses) 97.8 per cent

North Melbourne should be well entrenched in the eight in a month's time. They have four should-win games, starting with Boomer Harvey's 400th game at the Gabba on Saturday night. But these are the Kangaroos, who never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. The last three games of the year are on their home deck at Etihad Stadium and will likely tell the tale of the season. Round 23 v Richmond will be unbearable for their fans if it becomes a 'win to get in' scenario.

The run home:
Rd 17: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 18: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: St Kilda at Blundstone Arena
Rd 21: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at Etihad Stadium

• Lindsay Thomas flopped. Who fired for your club in this weekend's state leagues?

11. Geelong

30 points (seven wins, seven losses, one no result) 96.0 per cent

The finals light still flickers after the Cats' dour eight-point defeat of the Western Bulldogs. Saturday's game in Canberra will be the first there for Geelong in nine years and is a must-win, particularly as the Swans, Hawks and Pies still loom on their horizon. Win on Saturday and they'll look at their remaining draw and believe they're a chance to win them all, even the against their great rival of the last seven years, the Hawks. It will be fascinating to see the old guard at the Cats pulling out all stops for one last finals appearance.

The run home:
Rd 17: GWS at StarTrack Oval
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium

12. Port Adelaide

24 points (six wins, nine losses) 97.5 per cent

Port threw everything at the Crows on Sunday without getting the result and you wonder whether that might be it for 2015. Perhaps this is a year, a bit like Geelong in 2006, that an ascending club needs to have. The Power have been flaky this year and could win five or six of their remaining games or none at all.

The run home:
Rd 17: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Adelaide Oval
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: GWS at Adelaide Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: Fremantle at Adelaide Oval

13. St Kilda

20 points (five wins, 10 losses) 87.8 per cent

Richmond last year is the inspiration for including the Saints here. The Tigers won their last nine after a 3-10 start to get into the finals. It will be all over if they can't get past Melbourne at the MCG next Sunday and with Fremantle, Swans, and West Coast still to come as well, don’t expect any heroics from here.

The run home:
Rd 17: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Domain Stadium

14. Essendon

20 points (five wins, 10 losses) 79.0 per cent 

Only the most optimistic Bomber fans will have been postponing their September holidays in hope of their side reaching the finals. Friday night's defeat by the Roos makes the task nearly impossible, but not quite. Manipulation of the AFL ladder predictor shows that if only 60 or so of the remaining 63 games go the Dons way, they could finish as high as second. Back in the real world, 14th or lower is the likely scenario, with the consolation prize of a top five draft pick.

A rampaging Essendon storms into second spot at the end of the season. Source: 2015 ladder & finals predictor

The run home:
Rd 17: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: GWS at Spotless Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG 

15. Melbourne

20 points (five wins, 10 losses) 79 per cent

Richmond's miracle last year means September action for the Demons isn't mathematically ludicrous. However, the Tigers were a better side and a similar run for Melbourne would require an unlikely win against the ladder leaders in Perth in round 22. Two games at Etihad Stadium pose another problem. The Dees haven't won at the venue since 2007.

The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: North Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Fremantle at Domain Stadium
Rd 23: GWS at Etihad Stadium

Who's going to make it? Forecast the final eight with the 2015 ladder predictor