SUMMARY
There are still four rounds remaining, but this looms as the battle for the wooden spoon. The Lions are one win (and less than two percentage points) behind Carlton and could leapfrog them with a victory. Conversely, a Blues win would almost lock the Lions into last place and the first pick in the NAB AFL Draft later this year. The home team was competitive against Gold Coast in its last start but again failed to make the most of its forward entries, while Carlton frightened arch rivals Collingwood before ultimately succumbing. Both teams appear to have forgotten how to win. They look evenly matched, but we'll give the home team a slight edge here.
WHERE AND WHEN: the Gabba, August 15, 7.20pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R6, 2015, Brisbane Lions 12.12 (84) d Carlton 11.9 (75) at Etihad Stadium
R11, 2014, Brisbane Lions 14.14 (98) d Carlton 13.13 (91) at the Gabba
R9, 2013, Carlton 13.20 (98) d Brisbane Lions 12.13 (85) at the Gabba
R20, 2012, Carlton 17.11 (113) d Brisbane Lions 10.17 (77) at Etihad Stadium
R2, 2012, Carlton 23.16 (154) d Brisbane Lions 9.9 (63) at the Gabba
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Lions had fewer disposals and took the ball inside 50 less than Carlton in round six, but the Lions won thanks to four goals from Daniel McStay and Dayne Beams’ 29 possessions.
2. The Lions have been competitive in the clearances this season, ranked fifth with an average of 40.5 a game, while the Blues are eighth at 39.3.
3. Carlton is second for centre clearances, averaging 13.6 a game. Brisbane is 11th at 11.6.
4. The Lions have won the past two clashes between these clubs after five successive victories by the Blues.
5. The Lions are 17th for average contested possessions and 14th for uncontested possessions this season. Carlton is 16th for contested possessions and 15th for uncontested possessions.
6. Carlton’s Tom Bell had 24 disposals and four tackles against Collingwood last round. He started the year at No.366 in the Official AFL Player Ratings and is now No.142.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Mitch Robinson. Any time you play a former club, there's a little extra feeling – so the Blues better watch out. Robinson was solid when the teams met in round six, but despite the Lions' struggles, he has got better and better as the season has worn on. Moving into the midfield after the mid-season bye, the 26-year-old has excelled, averaging 22 disposals and 10 tackles the past five weeks.
PREDICTION: Lions by 23 points.
