NAT Fyfe's win in 2015 shows that Brownlow favourites are usually favourites for good reason.
However a quick glance back at past medal counts provides a reminder that neatly predicted outcomes don't always pan out. Here's an extended look back at one memorable controversial Brownlow Medal finish and a quick glance at some other upsets, when the popular picks went home without the medal.
1974: 'KB' and Kangas in a spat
Richmond rover Kevin Bartlett was the hottest fancy in years. Here's an excerpt from an AFL Record feature on the night of the count:
Bartlett had won Richmond's best and fairest for the second successive season and had cleaned up the various media awards.
"I won 11 of them and came second in the other. I would say it was my best season," Bartlett said.
Future 400-club member Kevin Bartlett was a white-hot favourite for 1974's Brownlow. Picture: AFL Media
Back then, the Brownlow Medal count took place the Monday after the final round of the season. It was little more than a glorified sportsman's night, at which the 12 club captains would sit on the stage, manually updating their team's leaderboards.
The votes weren't called out on a game-by-game basis; rather, the single votes were read out first, followed by the two votes, with the three votes called out last.
Bartlett tried not to get caught up in the hype that night as he headed to Melbourne's Southern Cross Hotel.
"It was all about winning the premiership and everything else was second rate. Who cares about awards if you don't win the premiership?"
The League stage-managed the count to perfection. Melbourne ruck-rover Gary Hardeman emerged as the player to beat as the three votes were counted. Towards the end, he had 23 votes to North Melbourne wingman Keith Greig's 18 and Bartlett's 16.
Kangaroos wingman Keith Greig in full flight. Picture: AFL Media
Bartlett went to 22 votes with five votes to be counted. The feeling around the room was that his name would surely be called at least once more; it was his medal to lose.
But Greig, who had moved to 21, earned three more votes and regained the lead with 24. The next two votes went to Footscray's Barry Round and Hawthorn's Kelvin Matthews.
VFL secretary Eric McCutchan announced there was one vote to go. Sporting Globe chief football writer Greg Hobbs was sitting on Bartlett's table and dramatically took out his wallet, threw some cash on the table and loudly declared Bartlett would win on the last vote of the night.
McCutchan continued: "And the final vote, ladies and gentlemen, is K … Greig, North Melbourne."
Greig with the game's highest individual prize. Picture: AFL Media
All hell broke loose as Greig claimed his second straight Brownlow Medal. In their wisdom, the organisers had laid out the tables inside the ballroom with the clubs in alphabetical order, which meant the North Melbourne and Richmond contingents were seated alongside each other.
As soon as the count was over, Tigers secretary Alan Schwab and committeeman Charlie Priestley booed and hissed. Once outside the ballroom, Ron Joseph, the North secretary, challenged them and he and Priestley, a feisty former Richmond premiership player, then scuffled and nearly came to blows.
Schwab summed up the mood at Tigerland, telling The Age's Mike Sheahan: "It's a joke. Greig deserved to win a Brownlow, but not this year."
There was a twist in the tail of the building rivalry between the two clubs. September culminated in the Tigers beating the Roos to take that year's premiership, their second straight.
1973: No joy for 'Lethal'
Hawk hardman Leigh Matthews with his eyes on the pill. Picture: AFL Media
The year before the Bartlett-Greig controversy, Hawthorn rover Leigh Matthews was the one to beat. Matthews had featured prominently in various media awards, but Greig ended up playing spoiler. The North speedster polled 27 votes, two ahead of Essendon ruckman Graham Moss. Matthews finished in third place, four votes adrift of Greig.
1986: A mate denies Roos
Lions legend Paul Roos flies against the Tigers. Picture: AFL Media
Fitzroy had enjoyed a wonderful season, beating Essendon in a thrilling elimination final in the wet, edging the Sydney Swans in another close final the following week and reaching the preliminary final before coming up short to eventual premier Hawthorn.
Paul Roos had been a critical part of the Lions' success and was considered a lock to be named the competition's fairest and best player after his second straight All-Australian season.
But Roos' relatively unknown teammate Mark Dwyer collected 10 votes, inadvertently 'stealing' some from Roos.
The count ended in a tie, with Hawk DiPierdomenico and Swan Greg Williams finishing with 17, one vote in front of Roos, who would win the second of five club best and fairest awards.
• A short history of the Brownlow Medal
2000: Demon overshadows 'Kouta' and 'Macca'
Anthony Koutoufides was favourite the year of one of the Brownlow's biggest boilovers. Picture: AFL Media
Carlton's Anthony Koutoufides was brilliant in leading the Blues to a preliminary final. His athletic and spectacular style saw him become a genuine match-winner and true star.
Crow Andrew McLeod, already a dual Norm Smith medallist, had also enjoyed a superb year as a genuine playmaker with sublime skills.
Both were named in the All Australian team.
But Melbourne's defender-turned-midfielder Shane Woewodin caused a major boilover, his 24 votes two better than Bulldog Scott West. McLeod (20) and Koutoufides (19) finished third and fourth respectively.
McLeod was also a hot fancy the following year, but he finished runner-up to Brisbane Lion Jason Akermanis.
2002: Lion streaks ahead of Dog
Luke Darcy thrilled Bulldogs fans but couldn't catch the umpires' eyes. Picture: AFL Media
Bulldogs ruckman Luke Darcy was a star in 2002, winning the AFL Players' Association and Australian Football Media Association MVP awards.
Darcy was considered a great chance to join other Bulldogs ruckmen Norm Ware (1941), John Schultz (1960), Gary Dempsey (1975) and Scott Wynd (1992) as Brownlow medallists. Sadly for Darcy and Dogs fans, the umpires didn't agree.
He finished with only 16 votes, nine behind the winner, Lion Simon Black.
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